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Sub-Saharan Africa’s per capita GDP growth is projected to rise to 1.8% in 2026, but nearly half of the region’s population is still expected to live in poverty, with the poverty rate projected at 47.8%.
The World Bank disclosed the projections in the October 2026 edition of its Africa Economic Update, its biannual report assessing recent economic developments and the outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.
The weak poverty outlook comes despite the World Bank raising its 2026 economic growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa by 0.3 percentage points to 4.3%.
Africa income gains stay limited
With poverty measured using the international poverty line of $3 per person per day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms, the World Bank projects that 47.8% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population will remain poor in 2026.
The lender said the projected improvement in income per person remains too weak to translate into a substantial rise in living standards, particularly as households remain exposed to conflict, declining development assistance, high debt-service costs and climate shocks.
- “Poverty, measured at the international poverty line of US$3 per person per day (2021 purchasing power parity), is projected to decline only modestly to 47.8 percent in 2026 and 47.1 percent in 2027,” the World Bank said.
- “While per capita GDP growth is projected to increase to 1.8 percent in 2026, income gains remain too modest to indicate a significant improvement in living standards.”
The lender also noted that many poor households remain concentrated in low-productivity informal activities and subsistence agriculture, limiting the extent to which overall economic growth translates into higher incomes.
The World Bank warned that the absolute number of poor people is still increasing as population growth continues to outpace the modest decline in the poverty rate.
Regional growth outlook strengthens
Nairametrics earlier reported that the World Bank raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa by 0.3 percentage points to 4.3%, citing stronger-than-expected performance across several economies.
The improved headline growth outlook reflects stronger projections for a number of countries across the region.
- Equatorial Guinea is projected to move from a 5.8% contraction in 2025 to a 1.2% contraction in 2026, while Botswana is expected to rebound from a 0.7% contraction to 3.4% growth.
- Zambia is projected to accelerate from 3.8% growth in 2025 to 5.6% in 2026.
- Angola is forecast to expand by 4.5%, up from 3.1%, while the Republic of Congo is expected to grow by 4.4%, compared with 3.1% in 2025.
- For Nigeria, the World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast to 4.3% from 4.0% in 2025, with growth projected at 4.4% in both 2027 and 2028.
Despite these stronger growth projections, the poverty figures indicate that improved economic performance has yet to translate into equally strong gains in living standards across the region.
Nigeria growth outpaces welfare gains
Nigeria reflects the broader challenge of stronger headline economic growth not yet translating into broad improvements in household welfare.
- In April, the World Bank said Nigeria’s poverty rate had risen from 56% in 2023 to 61% in 2024 and 63% in 2025, equivalent to about 140 million Nigerians living below the poverty line.
- The International Monetary Fund also warned in June that although Nigeria’s economic reforms over the previous three years had strengthened macroeconomic stability and resilience, poverty and food insecurity remained severe.
- At the macroeconomic level, however, the economy has continued to expand.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.43% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 4.23% in the corresponding period of 2025.
