Nigeria’s poverty rate rose to 63% in 2025, even as inflation eased sharply, highlighting weak transmission of macroeconomic gains to households, according to the World Bank.
The disclosure was made in the Nigeria Development Update (April 2026) titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” released in Abuja.
The report showed poverty rising from 56% in 2023 to 61% in 2024, before reaching 63% in 2025, equivalent to about 140 million Nigerians living below the poverty line.
What the report says
- The World Bank report read, “Household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset still-elevated inflation, and poverty has yet to begin declining.”
It noted that the cumulative impact of past inflation shocks continues to weigh on real incomes, limiting the benefits of current disinflation. External pressures, including the Middle East conflict, were also cited as drivers of elevated living costs through higher energy, food, and transport prices, further worsening conditions for low-income households.
Structural gaps slow poverty reduction outlook
Beyond inflation, the report identified structural issues in Nigeria’s growth pattern as a major constraint to poverty reduction. Economic expansion has been driven largely by services and industry, while agriculture—where most poor Nigerians are employed—has lagged.
- “Growth in the agriculture sector—where more than half of the poor work—has lagged services and industry, constraining the pace of poverty reduction,” the bank noted.
This imbalance has limited income gains among vulnerable populations, weakening the link between growth and improved living standards. The report stressed that without inclusive and job-rich growth, poverty reduction will remain slow.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projected a gradual decline in poverty from 2026 as inflation continues to ease and macroeconomic conditions stabilise. Poverty is expected to fall to about 59% by 2028, supported by lower food inflation and moderate growth.
However, it warned that progress will be constrained by weak job creation, low agricultural productivity, and persistent inequality. The bank emphasised that targeted reforms to improve livelihoods and expand access to productive employment are critical to reversing current trends.
It also highlighted links between poverty and human capital outcomes, noting that poorer households face worse conditions in nutrition, health, and early childhood development, reinforcing long-term inequality.
What you should know
The surge in poverty came despite a sharp moderation in inflation. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed headline inflation dropped from 34.80% in December 2024 to 15.15% in December 2025, a decline of 19.65 percentage points. Food inflation also fell significantly from 39.84% to 10.84% over the same period.
Despite this easing, the World Bank said price moderation has not translated into improved welfare, as earlier inflation spikes had already eroded purchasing power.
