Dangote Refinery shares could hit N1,500 in months, say analysts

Financial analysts have projected that shares of Dangote Petroleum Refinery could rise up to N1,500 in months once listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), even as they cautioned that early demand may not be matched by available supply.

The analysts spoke on the latest edition of Drinks and Mics podcast, hosted by Ugo Obi-Chukwu.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO officially opened on September 14, 2026, offering 4.1 billion ordinary shares at N525 per share to raise N2.15 trillion.

What they are saying

Responding to a question on whether the stock could double or triple in about six months, Wale Adebayo, CEO of Nissi-Lloyds Capital & Investments LLC, said he expected the share price to climb toward N1,000 or N1,500, but questioned whether investors would actually be able to sell at that level.

• “So for me, I see the price going to N1,000, N1,500. But can you sell at that point? It’s going to be listed 15 days after the closure of the IPO. Has everybody been able to get their own share certificate? Have you been allocated?” Adebayo said.

Dublin-Green pushed back on the framing, describing questions about allocation as premature at this stage.

• “That question is too early to ask about allocation,” he said.

Adebayo explained that once the stock is listed, strong demand on the exchange, combined with limited supply, could push prices upward in the near term.

• “So once it’s listed, the demand is there on the exchange, but there’s no supply. So if there is demand and there is no supply, the price keeps going up. Everybody’s now reaching paper,” he said.

Concerns raised over aggressive marketing around IPO

Obi-Chukwu raised concerns about the scale of marketing activity surrounding the offer, describing unsolicited messages and calls he and others had received promoting participation in the IPO, even from unrelated contacts.

He questioned whether the marketing frenzy reflected a broader pattern in how investment opportunities are sold to the public in Nigeria, separate from the merits of the Dangote investment itself.

Adebayo urged caution over the proliferation of investment-related mobile applications linked to the IPO, warning that some could be fraudulent.

• “We also need to advise Nigerians. All these boys will develop a lot of apps. You just need to be careful the kind of apps they use because most of these guys will use the apps to take their money, all these scammers and fraudulent guys,” he said.

Obi-Chukwu noted that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had already issued guidance urging the public to only use officially registered platforms for the offer.

Adebayo stressed that the Dangote Refinery IPO should be viewed as a long-term investment rather than a quick money-doubling opportunity, drawing a comparison to Seplat Energy’s share price trajectory.

• “If you look at Seplat price, there’s nothing stopping Dangote from chasing a Seplat price at a point, maybe not in two or three years. But by the time it goes upstream, put everything in its ecosystem. You don’t buy Dangote Refinery IPO and say you want to do a money-doubling thing. It’s a long-term hold,” he said.

Obi-Chukwu noted that Dangote’s potential move into upstream oil assets to secure feedstock for the refinery would be a significant development, given Nigeria’s ongoing struggles with crude production.