FEWS NET: 16.99 million Nigerians may face acute hunger by January 2027

As many as 16.99 million Nigerians could face acute hunger by January 2027, according to the latest projections by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).

The figures are contained in FEWS NET’s Food Assistance Outlook Brief for July 2026, which projects that between 16.0 million and 16.99 million Nigerians will require urgent food assistance by January 2027.

The projected figure is lower than the 20.0 million to 20.99 million people estimated to be in need of urgent food assistance in July 2026, but remains above the number recorded in January 2026 and Nigeria’s five-year average.

What the report is saying

FEWS NET ranked Nigeria fourth globally among countries with the highest number of people expected to require urgent food assistance by January 2027.

The projected 16.0 million to 16.99 million Nigerians represent between 5% and 10% of the country’s total population under FEWS NET’s classification bands.

• Nigeria is projected to rank behind Sudan, Pakistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
• The projected Nigerian figure remains above the country’s five-year average.

Nigeria’s projected population in need of food assistance is expected to decline mainly because of the December harvest, although FEWS NET warned that food insecurity will remain severe in several parts of the country.

More Insights

FEWS NET said conflict across northern Nigeria is expected to continue driving Crisis-level food insecurity and worse outcomes in January 2027.

The network said conflict is disrupting livelihoods, restricting cultivation and constraining household incomes, while high staple food prices are expected to persist.

• Inaccessible areas and Local Government Areas most affected by conflict-related movement restrictions in the North-East are expected to continue facing Emergency conditions.
• Conflict-affected households that are unable to cultivate are expected to remain highly reliant on markets.
• Production and supply disruptions are expected to keep food prices elevated despite the completion of the main harvest in December.
• Nigeria’s current July 2026 population in need of 20.0 million to 20.99 million was the second-highest globally, behind Sudan.
• “Despite the completion of the main harvest in December, staple food prices are expected to remain high as production and supply disruptions coincide with high market reliance among conflict-affected households who are unable to cultivate. In the North East, inaccessible areas and Local Government Areas most affected by conflict-related movement restrictions are expected to continue to face Emergency,” the organisation noted.

Globally, FEWS NET projected that between 145 million and 155 million people across the 30 countries it monitors will require urgent food assistance by January 2027.

South Sudan was identified as the country with the highest projected share of its population requiring food assistance, at 50% to 55%, followed by Sudan at 40% to 45%, Yemen at 35% to 40% and Somalia at 30% to 35%.

• Pakistan is projected to overtake Nigeria by January 2027, with its population in need rising from 12.0 million to as high as 17.99 million.
• Five countries were flagged as being at risk of slipping into full-blown famine: Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Mali and Chad.
• FEWS NET’s population-in-need estimate includes people already facing Crisis-level hunger or worse, classified as IPC Phase 3 and above.
• The estimate also includes people who would fall into that category without ongoing humanitarian assistance.

What you should know

Nairametrics previously reported that up to 34.7 million Nigerians could face acute food insecurity in 2026, according to PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 report.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization also projected that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the June–August 2026 lean season, based on its October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis.

Farmers in the North-Central and North-West regions have also warned of potentially abandoning farming due to rising production costs, insecurity and significant post-harvest losses.