S&P Global has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s average inflation rate in 2026 to 16.9%, from its earlier projection of 15.0%, citing stronger-than-expected pass-through from oil prices to domestic energy costs.

The ratings agency disclosed this in its latest assessment, titled Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Q3 2026: Inflationary Pressures Will Persist.

It also lowered Nigeria’s gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 30 basis points each, to 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively, while maintaining that the economy would remain resilient.

What the rating agency is saying

S&P Global said inflationary pressures have increased across emerging markets in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, with Nigeria and Turkiye among the countries experiencing higher energy inflation.

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The agency added that food inflation could rise in the coming months due to increased transportation and fertiliser costs.

  • “Compared with our March baseline, we have raised our inflation projections and lowered our growth forecasts for most EM economies in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.”
  • “Energy inflation has picked up broadly across the region, particularly in Nigeria and Turkiye.”
  • “We expect food inflation to increase over the coming months due to higher transportation and fertilizer costs.”
  • “Among key EM EMEA economies, we raised our inflation forecast for Nigeria the most, to 16.9% in 2026 from 15.0%.”

S&P Global said the revised inflation outlook reflects the stronger-than-expected transmission of higher oil prices into domestic energy inflation.

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The agency said Nigeria’s inflation outlook has affected its growth expectations, given the importance of household consumption to the economy.

  • S&P Global reduced Nigeria’s 2026 GDP growth forecast by 30 basis points to 3.7%.
  • It also cut its 2027 growth projection by 30 basis points to 3.5%.
  • The agency linked the lower growth outlook to higher inflation and its impact on household consumption.

Nigeria recorded the largest upward revision to inflation among key emerging-market economies in the EMEA region covered by the report.

The agency noted that higher consumer prices could weaken household spending, which remains a major driver of economic activity in Nigeria.

What you should know

This projection comes amid renewed global commodity price pressures linked to geopolitical developments in the Middle East and disruptions to global energy supply chains.

Earlier this month, Nairametrics reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate edged higher to 15.93% in May 2026, up from 15.69% in April.

  • The World Bank Energy Index increased to 146.4 points from 130.6 points.
  • The FAO Food Price Index rose by 1.6% to 130.7 points, marking its third consecutive monthly increase.

The revised forecast signals that price pressures may remain elevated in Nigeria despite expectations of exchange-rate stability and stronger oil production.