Three years after Nigeria’s historic naira devaluation, the country’s largest listed companies have not only recovered the dollar value of profits lost during the currency shock but have collectively surpassed their pre-devaluation earnings peak.
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A Nairametrics analysis of 28 major listed companies across the Consumer Goods, Industrials, Telecoms, and Energy sectors shows that combined profit before tax (PBT) rose to $4.4 billion in 2025, exceeding the $3.8 billion recorded in 2022 before the naira was floated.
However, while corporate balance sheets are showing signs of renewed strength, analysts warn that the recovery remains incomplete as households continue to struggle with rising living costs, stagnant wage growth, and weakened purchasing power.
The divergence between corporate profitability and household welfare has emerged as one of the defining economic realities of Nigeria’s post-reform era, raising questions about how sustainable the recovery can be if consumers remain under pressure.
What the data is saying
The recovery in corporate earnings marks a dramatic reversal from the immediate aftermath of the naira float, when the sharp depreciation of the currency wiped out dollar-denominated profits across much of corporate Nigeria.
- Combined turnover for 28 major listed companies fell from $23.8 billion in 2022 to $14.7 billion in 2024 before recovering partially to $20.5 billion in 2025, still about 14% below pre-devaluation levels.
- Combined PBT declined from $3.8 billion in 2022 to just $625 million in 2023 before rebounding to $4.4 billion in 2025, surpassing the 2022 level by 17%.
The earnings collapse in 2023 and 2024 was driven by currency translation effects and significant foreign exchange revaluation losses on foreign-currency liabilities.
The recovery has largely been driven by stronger pricing power, margin expansion, and exchange-rate stabilization rather than volume growth.
The companies most exposed to foreign currency obligations suffered the deepest losses during the devaluation period before staging significant recoveries.
- MTN Nigeria moved from a profit of $1.18 billion in 2022 to losses of $198 million in 2023 and $359 million in 2024 before rebounding to $1.17 billion in 2025.
- Nigerian Breweries returned to profitability in 2025 after posting two consecutive years of substantial losses. It went from +$38m to two years of nine-figure dollar losses, then back to +$111m.
- Nestlé Nigeria followed a similar trajectory, recovering to a profit of $115 million in 2025 after –$116m and –$144m losses in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
- Dangote Sugar remains the notable exception, remaining loss-making at approximately $50 million in 2025.
The breadth of the recovery is reflected across several sectors.
- Dangote Cement rebuilt dollar-denominated PBT from a low of $477 million in 2024 to $1.05 billion in 2025.
- Lafarge Africa nearly tripled, from -$99 million to +$283 million.
- BUA Foods ($358m), BUA Cement ($320m) and Seplat ($519m) all set fresh dollar highs for the period.
Currency stabilization also played a role in the recovery, with the official exchange rate improving modestly from N1,535 per dollar at the end of 2024 to approximately N1,455 by the end of 2025.
More insights:
Despite the impressive rebound in corporate earnings, analysts argue that the figures do not tell the full story of Nigeria’s economic recovery.
Ayokunle Olubunmi, Head of Financial Institutions Ratings at Agusto & Co., cautioned that many companies are still rebuilding balance sheets damaged by inflation and devaluation.
- “For most corporates, they’re just trying to recover their working capital — just coming back to normalcy.”
- “Even some of them are doing aggressive borrowing because they need to expand their business. You’re looking at their profit increasing. Don’t forget also that their working capital has even quadrupled.”
According to him, the same pricing strategies that restored corporate profitability have increased financial pressure on households.
- “A lot of companies have been able to recover and get better profitability because of increases in price.”
- “If you are selling things at higher prices, it’s still coming back to the household — the cost of living for most households is becoming too expensive.”
- “Wages haven’t grown at the same pace as the cost of living.”
- “What we are having now is just like money illusion. But look at the core earnings: the cost of living has gulped it.”
His assessment highlights a central challenge in Nigeria’s post-reform economy: companies can pass higher costs to consumers, but salaried workers often cannot increase their incomes at a similar pace.
Expert views: Is the recovery sustainable?
Chief Blakey Ijezie, founder of Okwudili Ijezie & Co. (Chartered Accountants), said the widening gap between corporate performance and household welfare is visible in everyday spending patterns.
- “In 2015, I bought cement for N1,500. I bought a bag of cement last week at about N11,000 to N12,000.”
- “Some of those companies recover because they hiked the prices to meet up with the inflation rate and the devaluation of the naira.”
- “Before, we were paying less than N200 per litre of fuel. Now it’s over a thousand.”
- “The minimum wage was increased to N70,000, compared to about N30,000. If you look at the cost of living, it has quadrupled.”
Ijezie also challenged the tendency to use stock market performance as a proxy for economic wellbeing, arguing that the gains recorded by listed companies do not necessarily reflect the reality faced by most Nigerians.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), offered a more balanced assessment.
- “The macroeconomic conditions are very supportive of investment, which is why you are seeing what you are seeing in profitability.”
- “The reform has brought about significant improvements in the macro environment — it has improved the investment environment.”
- “Macroeconomic conditions in themselves, even when they improve, are not likely to directly impact on the cost of living or on the welfare of the people.”
- “It takes deliberate policy calibration and targeted programmes to ensure that there is enough intervention to ease the cost of living.”
Yusuf warned that corporate earnings growth cannot remain insulated indefinitely from weak household demand.
- “All these corporates also rely on the households. If this poor condition of the household lingers for too long, it may also impact on their prosperity.”
- “They may begin to have low sales, and if they have low sales, it will translate to losses for them.”
- “There is actually the need to empower the household, who are their very first customers.”
He identified food, transportation, education, and healthcare as the areas requiring the most urgent intervention to reduce inflationary pressure on households.
The economist also argued that a greater portion of the fiscal gains generated by recent reforms should be directed toward mitigating the social costs borne by ordinary Nigerians.
What you should know
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to adopt a more flexible exchange rate regime in 2023 remains one of the most consequential economic reforms of the Tinubu administration.
The policy was introduced to address distortions created by years of exchange-rate controls, multiple exchange windows, and persistent foreign exchange shortages.
The naira moved from approximately N460 per dollar at the end of 2022 to N899 by the end of 2023 and N1,535 by the end of 2024.
Nigeria’s Q1, 2026 capital importation report published by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that while portfolio inflows have improved amid attractive OMO yields, foreign direct investment remains weak, with analysts describing Q1 2026 FDI inflows as significantly below expectations.
The weak FDI profile suggests that investors remain cautious about committing long-term capital needed to expand productive capacity, create jobs, and support income growth.
The corporate recovery is increasingly visible across sectors and appears sustainable if macroeconomic reforms remain on track.
However, the broader challenge remains ensuring that the benefits of that recovery reach households.
Three years after the naira float, Nigerian companies have largely regained what they lost in dollar terms.
The same cannot yet be said for the consumers who buy their products and services. Until wage growth, food affordability, and living standards begin to improve meaningfully, analysts say Nigeria’s recovery story will remain only partially complete.
