Food prices in Nigeria have remained persistently high despite government interventions and food imports valued at N7.65 trillion in 2025, raising questions about the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at easing cost pressures on households.
This is according to insights shared separately by economic and development experts with Nairametrics, alongside supporting government and development data.
Checks by Nairametrics indicate a widening gap between fiscal interventions and actual market outcomes, as increased spending on palliatives and imports has not translated into improved affordability for households across the country.
What the data is saying
Available data indicate that government interventions and rising import bills have not translated into lower food prices, as inflation remains elevated across key consumer categories.
- The Federal Government spent N9.74 billion on food palliatives in 2024, according to data from BudgIT’s platform, GovSpend, a civic-tech organisation advocating for transparency and accountability.
- This follows a 2023 intervention that allocated N5 billion each to the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) for rice and fertiliser procurement, amounting to a total of N185 billion for the purchase of 100,000 bags of rice and other grains for distribution as palliatives.
- Nigeria’s food import bill rose to about $10 billion in 2023, including $3 billion spent on grains.
- Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that food and beverage imports increased from N3.83 trillion in 2023 to N6.58 trillion in 2024 and further to N7.65 trillion in 2025.
- In 2024, the Federal Government introduced a zero-duty levy on selected food imports to ease soaring food prices.
- While the policy helped drive food inflation down from 40.8% in June 2024 to 8.89% in January 2025, some stakeholders say it had caused losses for farmers.
- Food inflation stood at 14.31% year-on-year in March 2026, contributing significantly to the overall inflation of about 15.38%.
The data points to sustained pressure on food prices despite increased fiscal interventions and import dependence.
More Insights
Experts say the persistence of high food prices reflects deep structural inefficiencies in Nigeria’s food system rather than insufficient spending alone. They argue that production, logistics, and macroeconomic conditions are combining to keep prices elevated.
- Agricultural economist Dr. Adebayo Oladipo said weak supply chains and post-harvest losses limit the impact of government spending.
- “There is a tendency to equate higher spending with better outcomes, but in agriculture, that assumption often fails,” he explains. “If the supply chain is broken, if storage is poor, and if farmers cannot scale production, then additional funding will not automatically translate into lower prices.”
- He adds, “Nigeria loses a significant portion of its harvests to post-harvest losses. Until we fix storage and processing, we will continue to see scarcity in the markets even when production improves.”
- Development expert Dr. Zainab Usman highlighted rising fuel costs as a major driver of food inflation through higher transport and logistics expenses.
- “The food system does not operate in isolation,” she notes. “When fuel prices increase, transportation becomes more expensive, and that cost is passed on at every stage—from farmgate to wholesale to retail.” She further stresses that “removing inefficiencies in logistics could have as much impact on food prices as increasing production itself.”
- Abuja-based Economist Ibrahim Yusuf highlights the role of currency pressures, stating, “Exchange rate volatility has significantly increased the cost of imported food and agricultural inputs. Even local production is affected because many inputs—fertiliser, machinery, seeds—are priced in foreign currency.” He adds, “This creates a cycle where both imported and locally produced food become more expensive simultaneously.”
- Aminu Barko, a development specialist at the University of Abuja, emphasises the risks of relying on imports as a policy tool. “Imports can ease supply shortages in the short term, but they expose the country to global price swings and foreign exchange constraints,” the expert explains. “A resilient food system must be anchored in strong domestic production, not external dependence.”
- Security challenges also remain a critical constraint. According to Dr. Oladipo, “Large portions of Nigeria’s food-producing regions are affected by insecurity. Farmers are either unable to access their land or are producing below capacity due to risk. That directly reduces supply and pushes prices up.”
- Climate variability is compounding the issue. Environmental economist Hadiza Bello notes, “Floods and droughts are becoming more frequent, and they are disrupting planting cycles and harvest yields. Without climate-resilient farming practices, these shocks will continue to affect food availability and pricing.”
- For households, the consequences are stark. Food accounts for a substantial share of consumer expenditure, and rising prices are forcing difficult trade-offs. Economist Ibrahim Yusuf explains, “What we are seeing is not just inflation—it is a cost-of-living crisis. Households are adjusting by cutting the quantity and quality of food, which has long-term implications for health and productivity.”
- He further clarifies a common misconception: “Even if inflation begins to decline, prices do not go down. They simply increase at a slower rate. So the pressure on households remains very real.”
- Experts broadly agree that the path forward lies in structural reform rather than continued short-term spending. Dr. Usman emphasises this point, stating, “Nigeria needs a coordinated strategy that links agriculture, infrastructure, energy, and trade policy. Isolated interventions will not solve a systemic problem.”
- Similarly, Dr. Oladipo concludes, “We need to move from reactive spending to strategic investment. Mechanisation, rural roads, storage facilities, and security are the foundations of a stable food system. Without them, price volatility will persist regardless of how much is spent.”
What you should know
Recently, the Federal Government of Nigeria unveiled a N1 billion reform of the country’s agricultural education system aimed at strengthening food security, creating jobs, and driving economic growth.
- Nairametrics previously reported that the Federal Government approved a N250 billion facility for the Bank of Agriculture to provide smallholder farmers with access to credit at single-digit interest rates.
- Previously, in September 2025, the Bank of Agriculture secured a $1 billion intervention facility in partnership with the African Export-Import Bank to strengthen Nigeria’s agricultural value chain.
Food prices really are getting out of hand. I wonder how couples are managing their wedding budgets with all these changes.