Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 15.38% in March 2026, up from 15.06 per cent recorded in February.
This is according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The figures indicate a renewed uptick in price pressures, with both month-on-month and annual indicators pointing to rising costs across the economy.
The latest data suggests that while inflation remains lower than previous year levels, short-term price increases are accelerating.
What the report is saying
The NBS data shows a moderate increase in headline inflation alongside stronger monthly price growth.
- Headline inflation rose by 0.32 percentage points from 15.06% in February to 15.38% in March.
- On a month-on-month basis, inflation stood at 4.18%, up from 2.01% in February.
- The twelve-month average inflation rate increased to 20.05%, compared to 18.58% in March 2025.
- Urban inflation stood at 14.64% year-on-year, while rural inflation was higher at 17.22%.
The data indicates that the pace of price increases accelerated in March compared to the previous month.
Context
March’s inflation data comes amid heightened global economic uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions.
- The ongoing Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices higher, increasing inflation concerns globally.
- Instability around the Strait of Hormuz—a key route for global oil shipments—has intensified supply fears.
- Rising crude oil prices typically translate into higher fuel and transportation costs across economies.
- Historically, such tensions have triggered inflation spikes in emerging markets, including Nigeria.
These global dynamics continue to exert upward pressure on domestic prices, particularly through energy and logistics costs.
More insights
Inflation in Nigeria has remained a key macroeconomic challenge in recent years.
- Price pressures have been driven by food costs, exchange rate movements, and supply constraints.
- Government reforms and market adjustments have also influenced price levels.
- Inflation trends have shown gradual moderation on a year-on-year basis but remain volatile monthly.
These factors continue to shape inflation dynamics across both urban and rural areas.
Breakdowns of inflation components reveal mixed trends across food and core categories.
- Food inflation stood at 14.31% year-on-year, significantly lower than 25.22% recorded in March 2025.
- On a monthly basis, food inflation declined slightly to 4.17% from 4.69% in February.
- Core inflation rose to 16.21% year-on-year but declined sharply from 27.12% in March 2025.
- Month-on-month core inflation increased to 4.03% from 0.89% in February.
The changes reflect easing annual pressures but rising short-term price momentum.
Additional inflation indicators show continued divergence between urban and rural price trends.
- Urban month-on-month inflation rose to 3.16% from 2.55% in February.
- Rural month-on-month inflation surged to 6.73% from 0.71%.
- The twelve-month average for rural inflation increased to 19.74%, higher than 16.81% in March 2025.
While year-on-year inflation appears to be moderating, the sharp rise in monthly figures suggests that cost pressures remain elevated in the near term.
What you should know
Nairametrics earlier reported that the headline inflation rate moderated marginally to 15.06% in February 2026, down from 15.10% recorded in January 2026.
In December 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projected that headline inflation will moderate to an average of 12.94% in 2026, driven by easing food prices and a decline in the cost of premium motor spirit (PMS).
The projection is contained in the apex bank’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.
