Crude oil production by OPEC fell sharply by 27.5% to 20.79 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, marking one of the most significant supply disruptions in decades.
This was reported by Bloomberg, which cited a monthly report from OPEC’s secretariat, compiled using data from the organisation’s Vienna-based research department.
The drop represents the steepest decline in OPEC output since the 1980s, surpassing even the cuts recorded in 2020 when oil production was slashed following the collapse in global fuel demand triggered by the COVID-19 lockdowns.
What the data says
In March, crude oil production by OPEC countries plunged by 7.88 million barrels per day to 20.79 million bpd, representing a decline of 27.5%.
- This drop exceeds the 6.28 million barrels per day cut recorded in May 2020, when OPEC and its allies reduced output in response to the pandemic-induced collapse in global demand.
Before the war erupted on February 28, key OPEC+ nations had been gradually restoring previously shut-in production.
At a virtual meeting on April 5, the group agreed to a modest increase in output for May as part of that recovery plan, with another meeting scheduled for May 3.
Get up to speed
Although there is a ceasefire between Iran and a combined U.S.-Israel force, oil production across the Middle East has been severely disrupted since the conflict began on February 28.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy corridor, has significantly restricted the flow of crude exports from Gulf producers, while repeated attacks on key oil infrastructure have further constrained production.
- In March, Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs and CEO of QatarEnergy, Saad al-Kaabi, revealed that Iranian attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure have wiped out an estimated $20 billion in annual revenue and knocked out about 17% of its liquefied natural gas export capacity.
Repairs are expected to sideline 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG output for between three and five years.
- Other countries have also been hit. Iraq’s oil production reportedly dropped by about 70%, falling from roughly 4.3 million bpd to around 1.3 million bpd due to export disruptions linked to the crisis.
Similarly, Saudi Arabia was forced to halt operations at a major refinery in its Eastern Province following a drone strike that affected facilities capable of processing over 500,000 barrels per day.
The wave of disruptions has extended across several Gulf nations, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman, compounding the supply shock.
What you should know
OPEC countries account for roughly 40% of global crude oil production, although their share has gradually declined over the years.
- In early April, the group announced plans to increase its oil production quota by 206,000 barrels per day for May 2026 in a bid to offset supply disruptions caused by the conflict.
- Meanwhile, Nigeria recorded a rise in crude oil production to 1.84 million bpd in March, recovering from 1.459 million bpd in January and 1.31 million bpd in February.
Despite this improvement, the country still recorded a crude oil and condensate shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels between January and February, underscoring ongoing production challenges.
