Analysts are increasingly viewing Iran’s ability to hold the Strait of Hormuz as a victory in the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.
The Gulf War, which has sparked intense debates among economic and geopolitical experts, has led to a growing consensus that the U.S. has failed to secure a victory, while Iran has triumphed simply by retaining control of the vital Strait of Hormuz.
This was the central theme of the latest episode of the Drinks & Mic Podcast, featuring Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited.
What the analysts are saying
Bismarck Rewane drew historical parallels, emphasizing the significance of the month of March as a turning point. Rewane invoked the story of Julius Caesar, highlighting the potential for unexpected upheaval.
- “Beware of March,” he said, warning of unforeseen events that could alter the course of history.
- “You win by not losing, and you lose by not winning. The U.S. has lost by not winning, and Iran has won by not losing control of the Strait of Hormuz.”
Rewane further noted that markets have already accounted for this shift, with oil prices surging and signs of disunity within Western alliances.
He highlighted the contrast between government windfalls from rising oil prices and the economic hardship faced by ordinary citizens, particularly in countries like Nigeria, where the cost of fuel is steadily rising.
- “The government may enjoy oil windfalls, but ordinary people are seeing income shortfalls, especially when fuel costs continue to rise,” Rewane explained.
Tunji Andrews, CEO of Awabah, also weighed in, emphasizing the symbolic value of Iran’s survival.
- “They are not exactly winning, but the optics are clearly on their side. The fact that they haven’t been overthrown speaks volumes,” Andrews said, adding that the conflict’s aftermath could destabilize the entire region as regional players recalibrate their strategies.
- “It’s going to be chaos,” he warned.
Get up to speed
The ongoing conflict has caused global oil prices to soar above $100 per barrel, with significant repercussions for local manufacturers and consumers in Nigeria.
The war, which began in February 2026 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over failed nuclear talks, was initially expected to last only a few weeks.
However, over a month later, there is no clear resolution, leading to concerns about long-term economic consequences, especially regarding the cost of living.
In Nigeria, the rising cost of crude oil has led to a dramatic increase in petrol prices, with the price of a litre climbing from less than N900 to over N1,350.
More insights
Arnold Dublin Green, MD/CEO of Renaissance Capital Africa, took a direct stance on the issue, asserting that “The U.S. has lost.” He pointed to soaring inflation, rising fuel prices, and fractures within the Western alliance, especially as divisions have become apparent within U.S. politics.
- “Inflation is up, costs are up, and Western alliances are fractured. Iran knew that if they could manipulate oil prices and maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, they could disrupt global markets,” Green said. “It’s not just oil that passes through there—it’s food, fertilizers, everything modern society relies on.”
Samson Esemued, Chief Investment Officer at Zrosk Investment Management Ltd., offered a broader perspective, arguing that the conflict has exposed critical vulnerabilities in global capitalism.
He identified three key pillars that have been undermined: the reliability of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, the role of the U.S. Navy as the guarantor of maritime security, and the perception of the U.S. as a benevolent superpower.
- “We’re witnessing a fundamental shift in global beliefs,” Esemued noted. “The world has changed in ways that cannot be undone.”
What you should know
Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure have also had significant effects on global energy markets. Iran’s recent strikes have knocked out approximately 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, with repairs expected to take between three and five years.
This disruption, valued at an estimated $20 billion annually, continues to threaten energy supplies to major markets in Europe and Asia.
Analysts agree that the Gulf conflict has redefined the concept of victory, exposing the vulnerabilities in U.S. strategy. While Iran’s survival serves as a major geopolitical statement, the U.S. faces economic fallout and fractured alliances.
