The US dollar retreated from multi-month highs this week as rising energy prices disrupted global interest rate expectations.
This is according to a report by Reuters on Friday.
The report indicated that the US Federal Reserve is now the only major central bank not expected to hike rates this year.
The shift in outlook comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have significantly impacted global oil and gas supply dynamics.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s naira depreciated to N1,362/$ on Wednesday, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), with no trading recorded on Thursday due to the Eid al-Fitr public holiday.
What the data is saying
The dollar index weakened this week, falling 1.1% to 99.359, marking its largest weekly decline since late January. This comes as investors reassess monetary policy expectations following a surge in global energy prices.
- The euro rose 1.4% for the week to trade around $1.1569, while the yen gained 1.2% to steady near 157.88.
- Sterling climbed over 1.5% to hover at $1.3422, with the Australian dollar also gaining 1.5% to trade just below 71 cents.
- Brent crude futures have surged about 50% since the escalation of the US-Israel conflict with Iran, disrupting Middle East energy exports.
- Market expectations have shifted from two US rate cuts this year to uncertainty over even a single cut.
The data reflects a broad-based weakening of the dollar as other currencies strengthen on expectations of tighter monetary policy outside the United States.
More insights
Reuters noted that global central banks are increasingly signalling a shift toward tighter monetary policy in response to inflation risks driven by rising energy prices. While the Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious stance, its counterparts appear more inclined toward rate hikes.
- The European Central Bank held rates steady but warned of energy-driven inflation, with markets now pricing in a possible rate hike by June.
- The Bank of England also held rates but signaled readiness to act, prompting markets to price in about 80 basis points of hikes by year-end.
- The Bank of Japan left the door open for a potential rate hike as early as April, boosting the yen.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for the second consecutive month, with expectations of further hikes.
These developments highlight a divergence in global monetary policy, with the Fed adopting a wait-and-see approach while others move toward tightening.
Get up to speed
The dollar had previously strengthened on expectations of US rate cuts and relative stability in American monetary policy.
However, the escalation of the US-Israel conflict with Iran has driven a sharp increase in oil prices, complicating inflation outlooks and forcing central banks globally to reconsider their policy paths.
This has shifted investor sentiment away from the dollar toward other major currencies.
What you should know
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this week, with Chair Jerome Powell stating it is too early to determine the economic impact of the ongoing conflict.
- At the same time, crude oil prices remain volatile after recent geopolitical developments, including warnings from US President Donald Trump against further attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure.
- India’s rupee has fallen to a record low, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to increase its forward dollar interventions to nearly $100 billion.
Nairametrics reports that at its last meeting, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee held the benchmark rate steady at 6.75%.
