Nigeria’s prolonged power outages, affecting homes and businesses nationwide, are primarily due to inadequate gas supply to thermal power plants.
The Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) made this known in a statement on Friday.
The system operator attributed the sustained drop in electricity generation to severe fuel constraints impacting the national grid.
In a statement titled “Declining Power Output Attributable to Generation Shortfalls and Gas Supply Limitations” posted on its official X handle, NISO said average available generation is currently around 4,300 megawatts, significantly below the country’s installed capacity.
The outages began in early February following scheduled maintenance on key gas supply infrastructure by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and Seplat Energy, which temporarily disrupted gas deliveries to several thermal plants and triggered a nationwide decline in electricity generation.
What they are saying
NISO said the decline in generation is directly linked to severe gas constraints affecting thermal generating stations, which account for the dominant share of Nigeria’s electricity mix. It explained that the current generation level reflects the sharp shortfall in daily gas supply to power plants.
- “We hereby notify the general public and all market participants that the current average available generation of approximately 4,300MW is primarily due to inadequate gas supply to thermal generating stations.”
- “Given that thermal plants account for the dominant share of Nigeria’s generation mix, any disruption or limitation in gas supply directly affects available generation capacity and overall grid output.”
- “The available gas supply represents less than 43 per cent of the required volume, resulting in constrained generation output.”
- “When total system generation drops significantly, the Independent System Operator must implement load shedding across the system, while dispatching available energy in line with the NERC MYTO allocation percentages across all distribution networks to maintain grid stability and prevent system disturbances,” NISO stated.
The operator added that reduced gas availability has led to lower energy allocation to Distribution Companies (DisCos), forcing them to implement load shedding to stabilise the grid.
More Insights
NISO provided operational data highlighting the extent of the supply gap. It stated that thermal plants require about 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet (mmscf) of gas per day to operate optimally, but as of February 23, 2026, the actual supply was approximately 692.00 mmscf per day.
- Required daily gas supply for optimal thermal generation: 1,629.75 mmscf.
- Actual supply as of February 23, 2026: 692.00 mmscf per day.
- Gas supplied represents less than 43% of the required daily volume.
This shortfall means that more than half of the gas needed to power thermal stations each day is unavailable, significantly limiting electricity dispatch across the country.
What you should know
Nigeria’s power sector remains heavily dependent on gas-fired thermal plants, which account for over 70% of grid electricity, while hydropower contributes the balance. This makes the system particularly vulnerable to disruptions in gas supply.
Earlier this month, NNPC Ltd announced that gas supply to some power generation companies will decline temporarily from February 12 to February 15, 2026, due to scheduled maintenance by its joint venture partner, Seplat Energy Plc.
Recently, the NNPC Ltd unveiled its Gas Master Plan 2026, targeting 10 billion cubic feet of daily gas production to drive industrialisation and strengthen Nigeria’s energy security.
