Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price outlook upward, projecting that Brent crude will average $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The new forecast was contained in the bank’s latest commodities outlook released on Sunday.
The projection provides fresh context for Nigeria’s fiscal assumptions even as the global oil market faces surplus risks and geopolitical uncertainties.
What the data is saying
Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter 2026 oil price estimates by $6, reflecting tighter inventories and shifting market fundamentals. The bank also adjusted its full-year projections upward compared to its previous estimates.
- Brent crude is now projected to average $64 per barrel in 2026, up from an earlier forecast of $56.
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is forecast to average $60 per barrel, compared to a previous estimate of $52.
- For the fourth quarter of 2026, Brent is projected at $60 per barrel, while WTI is expected to trade at $56.
Goldman maintained its forecast of a 2.3 million barrels per day global oil surplus in 2026, reflecting offsetting 0.2 million barrels per day downgrades to both supply and demand.
The upward revision was largely attributed to lower crude inventories across member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, although the bank retained its base-case assumption of no major supply disruptions linked to Iran.
More Insights
Oil prices dipped by about one per cent on Monday as the United States and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear negotiations, easing concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions. As of 0641 GMT, Brent crude futures traded at about $71 per barrel, while U.S. WTI futures stood at $65.75 per barrel.
- Goldman said its $60 Brent forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 reflects a gradual unwinding of a $6 geopolitical risk premium if tensions ease.
- The bank also factored in a $5 decline in crude’s fair value due to rising OECD inventories.
- It expects OPEC+ to begin a gradual increase in output in the second quarter of 2026, noting that OECD inventories have not accumulated significantly.
The bank warned that Brent could fall by as much as $5 and WTI by $8 in the fourth quarter of 2026 if sanctions relief for Iran or Russia unlocks additional supply.
Despite the price revisions, Goldman’s outlook underscores continued volatility, especially given the absence of a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and slightly weaker economic growth projections in parts of Asia.
What you should know
Goldman’s 2026 Brent projection aligns with Nigeria’s fiscal planning assumptions approved in December 2025. The Federal Executive Council adopted a benchmark oil price of $64 per barrel for the 2026 budget.
The council approved an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day for 2026.
A more conservative 1.8 million barrels per day will be used for budget calculations.
An exchange rate of N1,512 to the dollar was also adopted for the 2026 fiscal framework.
