Latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show Nigeria attracted a total capital importation of $11.1 billion in the second and third quarters of 2025.
Combined with the first quarter report, Nigeria reported $16.7 billion in the first 9 months of the year.
The second and third quarter reports had been delayed for almost 6 months.
As expected, foreign portfolio investment (FPI) represented over 97% of Capital Raised for the first 9 months of the year.
The structure of these inflows raises questions about sustainability and the country’s ability to convert liquidity-driven gains into durable economic expansion.
What the data is saying
Capital importation in 2025 has remained elevated across all three quarters.
- Q1 2025: $5.64 billion
- Q2 2025: $5.12 billion (a mild dip from Q1)
- Q3 2025: $6.01 billion (up 17.5% quarter-on-quarter)
This brings year-to-date inflows to $16.78 billion, already exceeding the $12.32 billion recorded in the whole of 2024.
The structure of inflows is consistent across the year, portfolio investment dominates. In Q3 alone, portfolio flows reached $4.85 billion, accounting for over 80% of total capital importation. Bond inflows strengthened significantly, while money market instruments remained high despite easing slightly from Q2.
Foreign Direct Investment improved gradually from $126 million in Q1 to $143 million in Q2 and $296 million in Q3, but still represents a small share of total inflows.
Even cumulatively for Q1–Q3, FDI remains under $600 million, while portfolio flows exceed $14 billion.
Backstory
For nearly six months, the National Bureau of Statistics had released only Q1 2025 capital importation data, leaving Q2 and Q3 unpublished despite repeated official references to strong inflows.
Meanwhile, senior government officials publicly cited figures of about $21 billion in capital importation for the first ten months of 2025, describing a dramatic rebound from 2024 and 2023 levels.
Those headline numbers were encouraging, but without quarterly breakdowns, investors were left guessing about the composition and sustainability of the inflows.
The prolonged delay raised obvious questions about transparency and timing — and ultimately compelled Nairametrics to interrogate the numbers now that the missing quarters have finally been released.
More insights
The sectoral data confirms that 2025 capital inflows are heavily concentrated in financial services.
Banking alone attracted over $3.1 billion in each quarter, accounting for more than half of total inflows in Q1, Q2 and Q3.
The Financing sector followed closely, pulling in $2.10 billion in Q1, moderating to $873 million in Q2, before rebounding to $1.86 billion in Q3.
Together, Banking and Financing consistently absorbed roughly 70–80% of total capital importation.
Outside finance, inflows were modest and uneven.
- Manufacturing rose to $261 million in Q3.
- Telecoms increased steadily to $209 million in Q3.
- Electrical saw a notable spike in Q2 ($456 million).
- Agriculture fluctuated between $24 million and $67 million.
Oil & Gas attracted minimal capital relative to the size of the sector, while technology, health, construction, and real estate remained comparatively small.
What you should know
Capital importation into Nigeria has been on an upward trajectory in recent quarters, but the current surge is not without precedent.
The last time Nigeria recorded comparable strength in foreign inflows was 2019, when the Central Bank also pursued an aggressive monetary tightening cycle. High interest rates at the time attracted significant foreign portfolio investments into money market instruments and fixed income securities.
However, that episode proved short-lived. By late 2019, monetary tightening began to ease. Then came COVID-19. The pandemic triggered capital exits across emerging markets, including Nigeria, and ultimately broke the long-defended ₦360/$1 exchange rate band that had held for nearly three years.
The lesson from that period is clear: yield-driven inflows can reverse quickly if policy direction shifts or global shocks intervene.
