Nigeria’s Portfolio inflows surge 14.4% to US$6.03 billion in Q1 2026

Nigeria’s financial account recorded portfolio investment inflows of $6.03 billion in the first quarter of 2026, the dominant component of a $7.22 billion gross incurrence of financial liabilities during the period and represents a surge of 14.4%.

This is according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Q1 2026 Economic Report, which details money flows into and out of the economy, government revenue and distribution, public debt, and the channels through which liquidity was created or absorbed during the quarter.

The dominance of portfolio flows over direct investment underscores a financial account increasingly driven by foreign holdings of Nigerian securities rather than long-term productive investment, even as the country recorded a broadly stronger external position for the quarter.

What the data is saying

Foreigners investing in Nigerian shares, bonds and other financial securities, increased their investments to US$6.03 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up from US$5.27 billion previously.

This indicates an increase of about US$760 million, or 14.4%, and by far the largest component of new financial liabilities.

The report says this was mainly because foreigners bought more Nigerian equities (shares).

Nigeria’s financial account recorded a net incurrence of financial liabilities of $2.51 billion in Q1 2026, against a gross incurrence of $7.22 billion.

• Other investment liabilities: $0.22 billion.
• Direct investment liabilities: $1.03 billion, down 7.09% quarter-on-quarter.

The gap between portfolio and direct investment flows is significant: portfolio inflows were nearly six times the size of direct investment liabilities incurred over the same period, pointing to a financial account shaped predominantly by shorter-duration, more liquid capital rather than fixed direct investment commitments.

Backstory: a stronger external position

The strong portfolio inflow figure sits within a broader improvement in Nigeria’s external accounts during the quarter.

• Total FX inflows into the economy rose 13.26% to $31.34 billion, from $27.67 billion in Q4 2025.
• FX outflows fell 11.78% to $11.01 billion, producing a net FX inflow of $20.33 billion, up from $15.19 billion previously.
• Autonomous sources — inflows outside the CBN and banking system — accounted for $21.15 billion of total inflows, up 23.90% quarter-on-quarter.
• Net inflow stood at $17.53 billion, more than six times the $2.80 billion net inflow recorded through the banking system and CBN combined.

External reserves rose to $48.35 billion as at end-March 2026, from $45.75 billion at end-December, covering 8.84 months of imports — well above the three-month international benchmark the CBN typically cites.

More Insights: liabilities keep growing

Even as portfolio inflows strengthened Nigeria’s external position in the quarter, they also add to a rapidly expanding stock of international financial liabilities.

• Nigeria’s total international financial liabilities rose to $226.58 billion, from $220.82 billion, with portfolio investment liabilities climbing 14.08% — the fastest-growing component of the stock and the main driver of the overall increase.
• Portfolio investment liabilities stood at $58.01 billion, behind direct investment liabilities of $90.38 billion and other investment liabilities of $78.03 billion but growing at a considerably faster pace than either.
• Against total financial assets of $127.34 billion, Nigeria’s net international investment position remained a liability of $99.24 billion.

The pattern is consistent with the fixed income market data for the quarter: CBN’s OMO bills drew subscriptions of $35.62 trillion naira-equivalent against $9.00 trillion offered — almost four times oversubscribed.

Nigerian Treasury Bills attracted N24.93 trillion in bids against N7.97 trillion offered, reflecting the same strong foreign and domestic appetite for short-duration naira securities that likely fed into the quarter’s portfolio investment figures.

What you should know:

Nigeria’s consolidated public debt stood at N159.27 trillion as at December 2025, equivalent to 36.94% of GDP, of which the Federal Government accounted for N154.92 trillion, or 97.26%.

• FGN domestic debt of N80.49 trillion is dominated by FGN bonds, which make up 79.06% of the domestic debt stock — the same government securities market that portfolio investors are increasingly accessing.
• External debt stood at $51.86 billion at end-December 2025, with commercial borrowing and Eurobonds accounting for 35.77% of the total, the second-largest source after multilateral loans at 45.99%.
• Diaspora remittances brought in $5.30 billion during the quarter, though this was 7.50% lower than Q4 2025, contributing to a secondary-income surplus that fell to $5.57 billion from $6.21 billion.

Portfolio inflows are now driving most of Nigeria’s new foreign liabilities, and portfolio holdings are growing faster than any other type. This growing foreign appetite for naira assets partly underpins J.P. Morgan’s recent decision to add Nigeria to its new frontier-markets bond index at a 7.4% weighting.