Nigeria’s external position is on track for significant growth in 2026, with analysts projecting a $17.7 billion current account surplus, equivalent to 4.9% of GDP.
This outlook is according to data by FMDQ and CardinalStone Research, forecasting a sharp reversal from years of oil-heavy vulnerability, pointing instead to a more diversified and resilient external account.
According to CardinalStone Research’s “2026 Macroeconomic Outlook: Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains,” this surplus would be Nigeria’s strongest in recent years, contributing to improved foreign exchange (FX) stability and bolstering investor confidence.
The factors driving this surge include an uptick in foreign inflows, expanding exports of refined petroleum products, and strengthened foreign exchange buffers.
What the report is saying
In the report titled “2026 Macroeconomic Outlook: Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains,” CardinalStone Research analysts are saying that Nigeria will post a $17.7 billion current account surplus in 2026, equivalent to 4.9% of GDP.
In addition, the analysts noted that Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Inflows (FPI) hit a record $18.7 billion in 2025, driving total foreign inflows to N48.8 trillion.
They highlighted refined petroleum products as a major new export line, with export receipts expected to reach $10.2 billion in 2026. Crude oil export earnings are forecast to decline due to weaker global prices, but gas exports are set to rise to $11.3 billion, according to the experts.
Foreign inflows hit multi-year highs
In 2025, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Inflows (FPI) hit record levels, with inflows amounting to $18.7 billion. This surge pushed total foreign inflows to N48.8 trillion, more than double the levels seen in 2023.
Analysts attribute this to a combination of factors: higher participation in fixed income and equities, enhanced FX liquidity, and growing confidence in Nigeria’s macroeconomic policies.
An essential part of the improved outlook is the rise of refined petroleum products as a significant export line. With local refining capacity being boosted by the Dangote Refinery, Nigeria has transitioned from being a net importer of refined fuel to becoming an exporter.
In the first nine months of 2025, refined petroleum product exports contributed $4.2 billion in FX inflows, representing 11.2% of oil-related exports. This figure is expected to grow to $6.5 billion by the end of 2025 and further to $10.2 billion in 2026. Other refinery projects, such as those from BUA, are also expected to further enhance this growth.
While crude oil export receipts are forecast to decline due to weaker global prices—estimated to be $55.08 per barrel—gas exports are projected to rise significantly.
The analysts forecast gas export revenues to hit $11.3 billion in 2026, up from $8.3 billion in 2025, as European countries diversify their energy sources away from Russian gas. This shift in exports is helping to offset the decline in crude oil earnings.
The structural shift in Nigeria’s external position is also evident in the decline of oil imports, which have fallen sharply, thanks to increased local refining. Oil imports, which averaged $4.4 billion per quarter between 2021 and 2024, have now dropped to less than $1.0 billion. This decline is expected to continue, further improving Nigeria’s trade balance.
What you need to know
Nigeria’s external account captures the country’s financial transactions with the rest of the world and is a key indicator of macroeconomic stability.
It consists primarily of the current account—which records trade in goods and services, income flows, and remittances—and the capital and financial account, which tracks foreign investment, borrowing, and other capital movements.
Together, these components determine whether Nigeria is a net earner or spender of foreign exchange and directly influence FX reserves, exchange rate stability, and investor confidence.
Nigeria’s external account has been highly dependent on crude oil exports, which for decades accounted for over 90% of export earnings and the bulk of FX inflows, making the external position vulnerable to oil price shocks, production disruptions, and policy distortions such as fuel subsidies.
Over time, gas exports, remittances, FPIs, and non-oil exports have become increasingly important. Today, structural shifts—rising local refining, expanding gas exports, stronger capital inflows, and improved FX management—are reshaping Nigeria’s external account.
