Nigeria’s gross oil revenue continued to underperform budget expectations in the first half of 2025, recording large shortfalls in both the first and second quarters.
Data from the Q1 and Q2 2025 Budget Implementation Reports released by the Budget Office of the Federation show that actual oil receipts fell significantly below the prorated quarterly projections in the 2025 budget.
The reports show mixed non-oil revenue performance—below target in Q1, slightly improved in Q2—while distributable revenue to all tiers of government stayed far below expectations.
What the data is saying
In Q1 2025, gross oil revenue stood at N4.55 trillion, representing a N8.21 trillion shortfall (64.35%) from the prorated quarterly budget target of N12.76 trillion.
However, this was N1.20 trillion (35.82%) higher than the N3.35 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
Gross non-oil revenue for the quarter came in at N4.71 trillion, falling N1.34 trillion (22.18%) below the quarterly estimate of N6.05 trillion.
After statutory deductions, net distributable revenue to the federal, state, and local governments stood at N8.06 trillion, reflecting a N8.79 trillion (52.16%) shortfall from projections.
- In Q2 2025, gross oil revenue improved slightly to N4.77 trillion, but still missed the quarterly target by N7.99 trillion (62.62%).
Compared with Q2 2024, oil revenue increased by N1.59 trillion (33.33%) from N3.18 trillion.
The data further says gross non-oil revenue rose to N4.46 trillion in Q2, representing a N404.26 billion (6.68%) positive variance relative to projections.
Net distributable revenue for the three tiers of government stood at N9.85 trillion, yet remained N7.01 trillion (41.58%) below budget expectations.
What this means
The persistent revenue gaps reflect ongoing challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, including production constraints, price volatility, and structural inefficiencies affecting revenue remittance.
Although oil revenue showed year-on-year improvement in both quarters, actual collections remained far below the assumptions underpinning the 2025 budget.
These trends come amid rising expenditure pressures, including debt servicing obligations and increased recurrent spending, placing additional strain on fiscal management.
What you should know
Earlier this month, OPEC reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production climbed marginally to 1.436 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, up from 1.401 million bpd in October.
Despite the modest increase, the report shows that Nigeria fell short of meeting its OPEC-assigned quota for the fourth consecutive month, the last time it met its target being July 2025.
According to OPEC’s data, Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, representing a decline from 1.481 million bpd in Q2 and 1.468 million bpd in Q1.
Latest FG’s data shows that Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption dipped to an average of 52.9 million litres per day in November 2025, reflecting a notable shift in national fuel demand patterns.
