Nigeria’s crude oil production climbed marginally to 1.401 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, up from 1.39 million bpd recorded in September.
This is according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday.
Despite the modest increase, the report shows that Nigeria fell short of meeting its OPEC-assigned quota for the third consecutive month, the last time it met its target being July 2025.
According to OPEC’s data, Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, representing a decline from 1.481 million bpd in Q2 and 1.468 million bpd in Q1.
The figures highlight the country’s ongoing struggle to sustain production recovery despite new investments and government interventions in the upstream sector.
Global Oil Market Context
The report also indicates that global oil supply exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day in October, a reversal from the estimated 400,000-barrel shortfall reported a month earlier.
OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat attributed this shift partly to increased non-OPEC production, with 890,000 barrels per day added globally—more than half of which came from the United States.
Nigeria’s Push for a Higher Production Quota
In October, Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, announced plans to formally request OPEC to raise Nigeria’s production quota to 2 million bpd, up from the current 1.5 million bpd.
Lokpobiri emphasized that recent developments in the sector, including the deployment of new drilling rigs, the revival of dormant oil fields, and fresh investments by international oil companies (IOCs), have positioned Nigeria to ramp up production capacity.
Nigeria’s persistent production shortfall has been linked to pipeline vandalism, oil theft, ageing infrastructure, and funding constraints affecting key oil projects. Although the government has intensified surveillance and security along oil corridors, production levels have yet to reach pre-2020 levels when the country consistently exceeded 1.8 million bpd.
What This Means
Nigeria’s inability to meet its OPEC quota for three consecutive months poses a challenge for its foreign exchange earnings, as oil remains the country’s largest revenue source. However, the gradual uptick in output shows signs of a slow but steady rebound that could strengthen the government’s fiscal position if sustained.
Furthermore, with the ongoing rehabilitation of refineries, the coming onstream of new private refineries like Dangote’s, and the renewed focus on upstream investment, Nigeria could be positioning itself for a stronger showing in 2026—provided it addresses security and infrastructure bottlenecks that continue to impede growth.
In essence, while October’s figures fall short of OPEC’s expectations, they represent a tentative upward trend—one that could define the trajectory of Nigeria’s oil sector recovery in the coming months.
