Nigerian Bonny Light held the $68 mark despite a drop in major oil benchmarks like Brent and West Texas Intermediate Crude.
Major oil blends fell on Friday after settling about 2 percent lower the day before, after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a plan to end the war in Gaza.
Brent crude futures were down 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $64.89 per barrel.
West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 0.4 percent to $61 per barrel.
President Donald Trump’s initiative to end the war in Gaza began Thursday with the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
The deal, which Israel’s government ratified on Friday, calls for Hamas to release all remaining hostages it took in the attack that started the war, Israel to partially withdraw from Gaza, and fighting to stop in exchange for hundreds of Israeli prisoners.
The Iran-aligned Houthis have attacked dozens of ships in Yemen since 2023, choosing to target those they believe are associated with Israel in what they have called solidarity with Palestinians over the war in Gaza.
A halt in a peace agreement for Ukraine caused crude oil to rise roughly 1% on Wednesday to a one-week high, suggesting that sanctions against Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, may not be lifted.
The focus can return to the inevitable oil surplus, thanks to the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, as OPEC moves forward with the unwinding of production cuts. Some of those worries about an excess of supply were allayed on Sunday when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to a smaller-than-expected November increase in manufacturing. Prices have not dropped significantly despite market expectations of a dramatic increase in crude supply.
Bonny Light Outlook
Technically speaking, bearish traders benefit from this week’s recurrent failures close to the 4-hour chart’s 200-period Exponential Moving Average (SMA).
Therefore, it appears very likely that there will be some follow-through weakness towards the $65-$68 region, which is the lowest level since May and was touched earlier this month.
The psychological $65 mark comes next, and if it is decisively broken, it will be interpreted as a new trigger for Bonny light and open the door to further losses. After that, crude oil prices may drop more quickly to the testing May swing low, which is in the $62 range, before finally falling to the $60 round figure.
Nigerian Oil industry fundamentals brighten
The NUPRC has reported significant growth in the number of active oil rigs, which increased from 8 to 69 over the past four years. This surge has attracted investments totaling $39.98 billion, with an expected $20.55 billion in 2024 alone.
Currently, oil production stands at 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd), and projections suggest it could rise to 2.5 million bpd by 2027. These improvements are largely due to reforms implemented under President Tinubu, which have enhanced security and led to a 90% reduction in crude theft.
Similar progress was reported in July 2025, as efforts to combat theft in the Niger Delta intensified, resulting in output that exceeded 1.8 million bpd.
However, despite these gains, there was a slight decline in crude oil production for the first time in several months in August, with a drop from 1.507 million bpd in July to 1.434 million bpd. Additionally, deepwater output fell to 428,000 bpd in April 2025 due to planned maintenance.
Troops from the 6th Division destroyed eight illegal refineries and seized over 18,000 litres of stolen crude oil across Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and Bayelsa states.
