Global crude oil prices have surged past the $65 per barrel mark, marking a notable recovery for Brent and Nigerian oil blends from an early April dip.
Tracked by Brent, crude oil in early April plummeted below $65, down from a monthly opening price of $74, heavily impacted by escalating tariff disputes, leading the commodity to lose over 15%.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House, along with his renewed support for reciprocal tariffs, has raised concerns that increasing global trade tensions could drive the U.S. economy toward a recession.
Consequently, the U.S. dollar has depreciated by over 8% year-to-date, reflecting a growing negative sentiment towards the currency.
Historically, oil prices have had an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar; however, recent trends show a more synchronized movement between the two.
J.P. Morgan analysts indicate that as U.S. exports have risen—especially since 2022—fluctuations in oil prices have begun to affect the dollar more significantly, mirroring the impact seen on other major exporting nations.
When the dollar falls, it also drives global oil prices down, creating a ripple effect across markets.
Nevertheless, as of April 20th, 2025, crude oil futures, including Brent and Nigerian blends, have rebounded by over 10%, rising past the $65 threshold and eyeing the $70 mark.
Increased exports, synchronized moves
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil exports from the U.S. have been steadily rising since 2021.
- In 2024, U.S. crude oil exports surpassed the previous record set in 2023, averaging over 4.1 million barrels per day—a 1% increase.
- Crude oil exports grew by 14% in 2023, exceeding 4.0 million barrels daily, following a remarkable 21% surge in 2022, when exports first topped 3.0 million barrels compared to 2021.
Regionally, Europe is the largest recipient of U.S. oil, with exports averaging about 1.93 million barrels per day in 2024.
Asia and Oceania follow in second place, while North and South America rank third.
- In Europe, the Netherlands has led in U.S. oil imports for the second consecutive year, averaging 825,000 barrels per day—32% more than in 2023.
According to analysts, the traditional inverse relationship between the dollar and oil prices has weakened over time.
This suggests that rising oil prices could now coincide with a strengthening dollar, while a declining dollar might lead to lower oil prices, reflecting a shift in the dynamics of global trade.
Market trends
Global oil prices tracked by Brent Oil Futures have experienced a year-to-date decline of over 9% so far in 2025.
Crude oil started the year at $74.93, soaring to $82.03 on January 15—the highest recorded price for the year—before experiencing a downward trend.
- Tariffs fueled a decline from February through early March, pushing prices below $71 per barrel.
- Although there was a recovery in late March that carried into 2nd April, bringing the commodity back up to $74, it plummeted again in mid-April, losing 15.87% of its value.
However, since April 9, 2025, it has staged an 11% recovery as it eyes the $70 threshold once more.
