Foreign portfolio inflow into the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) in the first half of 2024 was about $161.4 million, representing a 14% year-on-year growth from $141.8 million as of the first half of 2023.
The market recorded a total foreign inflow of N229.07 billion during the period, in contrast with N72.02 billion at the end of H1 2023.
In Naira terms, it was a 218% YoY increase, however, due to the 64% devaluation of the Naira, from N508/$ as of H1 2023 to N1420/$ as of H1 2024, the growth was much slower in Dollar terms.
While the market recorded a $161.4 million foreign inflow during the half year, there was a corresponding $219.4 million foreign outflow from the market. This was a massive 52.5% increase from the $144 million foreign outflow recorded from the market in H1 2023.
Foreign participation in the market
Foreign participation in the NGX in the first half of 2024 was about $380.74 million (N540.48 billion), representing 20.75% of the total transactions that took place in the market.
This is a significant improvement from H1 2023, where total foreign participation was about $285.7 million (N145 billion), representing about 10% of the total transactions that occurred in the market.
In H1 2024, the total transactions that took place in the NGX were about N2.604 trillion, which is about $1.83 billion. In Naira terms, there was a 79.5% YoY increase from the N1.45 trillion transactions as of H1 2023. However, in Dollar terms, there was a 36% year-on-year decline, as the total transactions in H1 2023 were about $2.86 billion.
Also, in dollar terms, there was a 43% year-on-year decline in domestic transactions, from $2.57 billion as of H1 2023 to $1.45 billion as of H1 2024.
In the second quarter of 2024, there was a 53% spike in foreign participation in the NGX, as the market recorded a total foreign participation of N327.3 billion, or $230.5 million in Q2 2024, in contrast with N213.2 billion, or $152.6 million recorded in Q1 2024.
June 2024 transactions
May 2024 witnessed the highest participation of foreign portfolios in the NGX since November 2021, with a foreign participation of 34.97%. In May, the NGX recorded a total transaction of N355.38 billion, with foreign participation of N124.28 billion ($83.78 million).
The market’s total transactions declined marginally by 0.23% to N354.55 billion in June, from the figure posted in May.
In that month, foreign participation declined to 23.18%, as the total foreign portfolio transactions were about N82.19 billion, or $55.88 million.
Year-on-year, there was a 13% decline in the total transactions that took place in June 2024, as the market recorded a total transaction of N406.75 billion in June 2023. There was also a 34% YoY decline in foreign portfolio transactions from June 2023, as the market recorded a foreign portfolio transaction of $85.04 million in June 2023.
Commentary
The volume of foreign portfolio outflows was greater than foreign portfolio inflows in all first six months of the year, safe for March.
With foreign portfolio outflows exceeding inflows, it draws a question on the concept of FPIs contributing to forex liquidity within the country, as foreign investors are more in the market to take out rather than bring in.
With the exceptional performance of the NGX as the best performing stock exchange in Africa in the first half of 2024, as well as one of the fastest-growing emerging markets, attention is drawn to the capital-gaining potential of the market.
Also, the increase in foreign investor interest in the NGX is a good omen for the recapitalization effort by the banks.
