The price of XRP has tripled in value over 2 weeks and subsequently pulled back sharply. Can we expect more upside for XRP, or is the XRP run up over?
With more positive news and developments in store over the next few months, this run may not be over yet. Other than the edge Ripple has over the SEC in the lawsuit, another reason may send the price of XRP soaring.
This is related to the Flare Network. Recall that in December last year, before news of the SEC lawsuit broke, investors were getting excited over the Spark (FLR) token airdrop that will be the native token on the Flare Network. That airdrop incited a huge surge in the price of XRP before the SEC lawsuit news sent its price reeling.
The Flare Network is expected to go live in 2Q2021, which could be anytime between now and June. The launch of Flare Network, with the airdropped FLR tokens to be finally distributed to qualified holders of XRP (those who owned XRP during the snapshot in December), couldn’t have come at a better time to hype up XRP again.
Not only will FLR tokens be distributed into the accounts of XRP holders, another airdrop will occur around one month after the launch of Flare Network.
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Flare Finance, which is built on the Flare blockchain and designed to power swaps, stable currency, yield farming, asset-backed loans, insurance, and yield mining, plans to offer those same participants another airdrop. The company says it will airdrop DAOFlare token (DFLR) to users who receive Spark. DFLR holders can then swap those tokens for YieldFlare, Flare Finance’s official token. This means additional free money and tools for the same XRP community who have benefitted from the Spark airdrop – certainly reason for die-hard XRP community to be very excited and pleased about and re-hype XRP all over again.
Flare Network’s launch provides another utility for the XRP token since XRP holders are able to buy FLR using XRP, or use their airdropped FLR tokens to mint FXRP that is interoperable with the ETH blockchain. This gives holders of XRP opportunity to participate in ETH-based DeFi and NFT projects to do yield-farming, trade on DEX, and join the NFT mania, which it otherwise was not able to do. This is very exciting news indeed for one more use case for the XRP token.
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Other than the Flare Network launch, another important news that may impact the price of XRP greatly is definitely the result of the SEC lawsuit. Ripple has filed a motion to dismiss the SEC lawsuit, and the SEC will have up to 14 May to contest it. Should the SEC not contest, or should the judge rule in Ripple’s favour, the lawsuit will be dropped. Dropping of the lawsuit will definitely cause the price of XRP to spike again.
Furthermore, with it becoming clear that people outside Ripple that sell XRP cannot be charged for selling illegal securities, exchanges are beginning to relist the XRP token. A swiss exchange has since announced that is has relisted XRP. Should more prominent exchanges begin to relist XRP again, it could bring the price of XRP up further. Chatters are already in overdrive after a Twitter user speculated that Coinbase was planning to relist XRP. Coinbase however, has not confirmed nor denied the rumour. Should a Coinbase relisting happen, the price of XRP is expected to spike again, regardless of the outcome of the lawsuit.
On the technical charts, after extending a solid run from $0.635 to a high of $1.99, XRP has retraced its first up thrust to its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.14 and bounced. Its RSI is no longer in the overbought territory. After letting out much froth, XRP can now resume its uptrend in a more steady and sustainable manner towards its ATH of $3.30. The area around $1.00 provides a very solid support that is not likely to be broken. A break above $1.50 could mean that the retracement is over and price will resume on its uptrend again.
The only risk now, other than a bad surprise in the SEC lawsuit result, is Jed McCaleb, the co-founder and former CTO of Ripple Labs. As one of Ripple’s main contributors, Jed acquired more than 9 billion XRP as part of the compensation plan for his role, and has been regularly selling his stash. However, he is left with only around 2 billion XRP and he is allowed to sell a percentage of XRP’s daily traded volume tabulated in the 2 weeks prior. With the higher trading volume in the last 2 weeks, Jed will be allowed to sell around 40 million XRP per day beginning 18 April. Whether or not he sells is unknown, but it is something traders need to take note of as a potential pressure on price should buyers not be able to absorb his selling. However, Jed’s selling has been well-absorbed all this while without any impact to price and his stash will finish by May if he were to keep selling. This will then remove a huge supply overhang and be good for the price of XRP moving forward.
As we move closer to the month of May, both the fundamental and technical picture bodes well for XRP. Perhaps the month of May could be the period when XRP tests its ATH of $3.30. If the momentum remains strong, it is possible XRP may even test $3.30 before May arrives.
Kim Chua is an institutional trading specialist with a track record of success that extends across leading banks including Deutsche Bank, China Merchants Bank, and more. Chua later launched a hedge fund that consistently achieved triple-digit returns for seven years. Chua is also an educator at heart who developed her own proprietary trading curriculum to pass her knowledge down to a new generation of analysts. Kim Chua actively follows both traditional and currency markets closely and is eager to find future investment and trading opportunities as the two vastly different asset classes begin to converge.