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Economy & Politics

Nigeria’s GDP growth to rebound between 1.7% and 2.0% in 2021 – United Capital report

Nigeria’s GDP is expected to grow between 1.7% and 2.0% in 2021.

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FG says latest recession in Nigeria will be short-lived

Nigeria’s GDP is expected to grow between 1.7% and 2.0% in 2021, largely predicated on increased economic activities and improving oil market conditions.

This disclosure was made in the “Nigeria Outlook 2021 – A shot at recovery” report released by United Capital.

According to the report…

  • “In 2021, we expect GDP growth to rebound by 1.7% to 2.0%, buoyed by increased economic activity and some improvements in the oil market. Although the reopening of the borders in Q4 2020 should ease pressures on food prices, other structural factors such as FX market illiquidity, potential increases in petrol price, etc. may keep general prices elevated. As a result, we expect the headline inflation rate to peak at around 16.0% before pulling back, if no further policy adjustment is made.
  • “Again, the high base effect of the headline inflation spike in Q3 and Q4 2020 should moderate further increases in price levels. In response to rising inflation and in a bid to attract FPI inflows to the market, we imagine that the CBN would begin to tighten its monetary policy stance at some point in Q2-Q3 2021.
  • “On the exchange rate, we expect a potential convergence of rates when the CBN begins full intervention at the I&E window. As such, we anticipate that the parallel market will appreciate from N470/$ towards the NAFEX rate which has now been adjusted to N410/$.
  • “In 2021, the direction of the monetary policy would continue to drive the sentiments for stocks as regards the yield environment. Accordingly, our prognosis for the Nigerian stock market in 2021 is that domestic interest, fuelled by dividend expectations, is likely to sustain the market rally in Q1-2021. However, in the absence of foreign demand, we see a short-term bear market from Q2 to Q3-2021”

Other key highlights of the report

  • In the course of the year 2021, the monetary policies are expected to be flexed to stimulate the growth of the economy as well as assuage the subsisting harsh impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • The report succinctly states, “We imagine that monetary authorities will further ease or maintain policy rates at current levels till Q2 2021 to allow economies recover fully before contemplating tightening from Q3 2021.”
  • The GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to rebound in 2021, though the rate of recovery shall vary from country to country. The improved exports, as well as commodity prices are expected to drive the growth, more especially as the global demand seems to be gradually recovering from the devastating impact of the pandemic.

Bottom line

With the second wave of COVID-19 infections and imminent lockdowns in several nations amidst limited access to vaccines, the growth projections might be threatened.

Johnson is a risk management professional and banker with unbridled passion for research and writing. He graduated top of the class with B.sc Statistics from the University of Nigeria and an MBA degree with specialization in Finance from Ambrose Alli University Ekpoma, with fellowships from the Association of Enterprise Risk management Professionals(FERP) and Institute of Credit and Collections management of Nigeria (FICCM). He is currently pursuing his PhD in Risk management in one of the top-rated universities in the UK.

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Coronavirus

IMF optimistic about global economy but warns new Covid variants could affect recovery

IMF is quite optimistic about the fortune of the global economy but expressed fear that the new Covid variant could derail economic recovery.

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IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed optimism about the global economy but warns that the new COVID 19 variant could affect the global economic growth, according to its latest World Economic Outlook.

According to the report, “the institution now expects the global economy to grow 5.5% this year — a 0.3 percentage point increase from October’s forecasts. It sees global GDP (gross domestic product) expanding by 4.2% in 2022”.

According to its Chief Economist, Gita Gopinath:

  • “Much now depends on the outcome of this race between a mutating virus and vaccines to end the pandemic, and on the ability of policies to provide effective support until that happens.
  • “There remains tremendous uncertainty and prospects vary greatly across countries.
  • China returned to its pre-pandemic projected level in the fourth quarter of 2020, ahead of all large economies. The United States is projected to surpass its pre-Covid levels this year, well ahead of the euro area.
  • “Policy actions should ensure effective support until the recovery is firmly underway, with an emphasis on advancing key imperatives of raising potential output, ensuring participatory growth that benefits all, and accelerating the transition to lower carbon dependence.”

What you should know

  • There has been a surge in the number of reported cases of the new variant Covid-19 infections and deaths over the past few months.
  • The new variant has been described as being more infectious and potentially deadlier than the original strain.
  • The IMF had cut its GDP forecasts for the euro zone this year by 1%.
  • It is being projected that the 19-member region, which has been severely hit by the pandemic, would grow by 4.2% this year.
  • Germany, France, Italy and Spain — the four largest economies in the euro zone — also saw their growth expectations cut for 2021.
  • Economic activity in the region slowed in the final quarter of 2020 and this is expected to continue into the first part of 2021. The IMF does not expect the euro area economy to return to end-of-2019 levels before the end of 2022.
  • IMF revised its GDP forecast upward by 2% points on the back of a strong momentum in the second part of 2020 and additional fiscal support, with GDP expected to grow to 5.1% this year.

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Economy & Politics

Updated: President Buhari appoints new Service Chiefs

President Buhari has appointed new Service Chiefs to replace the former with immediate effect.

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PIB; Will the jinx be broken this time around?, President Buhari may sign 2020 Budget tomorrow, President Buhari approves N37 billion for National Assembly renovation, President Buhari appoints Sarki Auwalu to head DPR , FG may stop interstate and inter-town travels, COVID-19: President salutes Elumelu, Dangote, Atiku, Banks, others for support, Naira export earnings, Covid-19: FG to set up N500 billion intervention fund, sovereign wealth, FG issues guidelines on implementation of gradual easing of lockdown nationwide, Electricity: FG approves one year waiver of import on meters, Buhari backs Lagos State Government Judicial Panel of Inquiry

President Muhammadu Buhari has appointed new Military Service Chiefs, and congratulated the outgoing Service Chiefs for efforts of “enduring peace to the country.”

The appointments was disclosed by Presidential media aide, Femi Adesina in a social media post on Tuesday.

Adesina said: “PMB appoints new Service Chiefs. Maj Gen LEO Irabor, CDS, Maj Gen I Attahiru, Army, Rear Adm AZ Gambo, Navy, AVM IO Amao, Air Force. He congratulates outgoing Service Chiefs on efforts to bring enduring peace to the country.”

President Buhari had come under heavy criticism in the last couple of years over his failure to sack the Service Chiefs for failing to tackle insecurity in the country.

“I have accepted the immediate resignation of the Service Chiefs, and their retirement from service. I thank them all for their overwhelming achievements in our efforts at bringing enduring peace to Nigeria, and wish them well in their future endeavours,” Buhari disclosed in a separate statement.

Specta

 

What you should know: The outgoing Service Chiefs were appointed by President Buhari in 2015 and despite clamour from several quarters for the President to replace them with fresh blood, nothing happened until today’s announcement.

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Economy & Politics

Investing in digital economy, infrasture crucial to mitigate impact of COVID-19 pandemic – World Bank

Investing in digital economy will be crucial to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 and foster a sustained recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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World Bank, Focus on lifting people out of poverty - World Bank tells FG , World Bank, IFC to assist in solving Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit , EXCLUSIVE: World Bank tasks developing nations to tap opportunities in GVCs, Warning signs: Nigerians living in extreme poverty might increase by 30 million – World Bank, US, China and UK’s protectionism ambition to affect Nigeria’s export, FDI , Terrorism bane to Nigeria's Agric development - World Bank

The World Bank has asserted that investing in the digital economy and infrastructure will be crucial to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and foster a sustained recovery and foster a sustained recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This is according to the World Bank In Africa report – #AFRICAN CAN.

The report noted that in a time of Covid-19, dominated by lockdowns and social distancing, investing in the digital economy and infrastructure will be crucial to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and foster a sustained recovery.

It argued that the adoption of digital technologies by governments, households and firms in Sub-Saharan Africa still lags behind that of other regions in the world.

The report, therefore, maintains that government intervenes to reduce the cost of devices and services, avoid disconnections for lack of payment, and increase bandwidth will be key, considering that the road to economic recovery is projected to be long and arduous.

Specta

What they are saying

The report states that:

“The road to recovery will be long and arduous and will require policies and investments that focus on connecting people to job opportunities, which can help end extreme poverty, particularly post-COVID-19.”

What you should know

Even though the World Bank did not suggest the form that the policies and investments would take in the report, the Bank, in a separate report — flagship report – Global Economic Prospects – as reported by Nairametrics on the 19th of January, 2021, has argued that productivity-enhancing structural reforms are required for quick economic recovery.

The Bank suggests these productivity-enhancing reforms encompass promoting education, effective public investment, sectoral reallocation, and improved governance. Investment in green infrastructure projects can provide further support to sustainable long-run growth while also contributing to climate change mitigation.

According to the report:

  • Sub-Saharan Africa is home to more than 1 billion people, half of whom will be under 25 years old by 2050.
  • It is a diverse continent offering human and natural resources that have the potential to yield inclusive growth and wipe out poverty in the region, enabling Africans across the continent to live healthier and more prosperous lives.
  • With the world’s largest free trade area and a 1.2 billion-person market, the continent is creating an entirely new development path, harnessing the potential of its resources and people.
  • Knowledge is essential for governments to make better policies and institutions to make more effective decisions, thus, governments should pay attention to research and analysis.

According to World Bank’s Flagship report – Global Economic Prospects.

  • Investment is projected to shrink again this year in more than a quarter of economies – primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where investment gaps were already large prior to the pandemic.
  • Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to rebound only moderately to 2.7% in 2021 – 0.4% point weaker than previously projected, before firming to 3.3% in 2022.

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