Nigeria’s GDP is expected to grow between 1.7% and 2.0% in 2021, largely predicated on increased economic activities and improving oil market conditions.
This disclosure was made in the “Nigeria Outlook 2021 – A shot at recovery” report released by United Capital.
According to the report…
- “In 2021, we expect GDP growth to rebound by 1.7% to 2.0%, buoyed by increased economic activity and some improvements in the oil market. Although the reopening of the borders in Q4 2020 should ease pressures on food prices, other structural factors such as FX market illiquidity, potential increases in petrol price, etc. may keep general prices elevated. As a result, we expect the headline inflation rate to peak at around 16.0% before pulling back, if no further policy adjustment is made.
- “Again, the high base effect of the headline inflation spike in Q3 and Q4 2020 should moderate further increases in price levels. In response to rising inflation and in a bid to attract FPI inflows to the market, we imagine that the CBN would begin to tighten its monetary policy stance at some point in Q2-Q3 2021.
- “On the exchange rate, we expect a potential convergence of rates when the CBN begins full intervention at the I&E window. As such, we anticipate that the parallel market will appreciate from N470/$ towards the NAFEX rate which has now been adjusted to N410/$.
- “In 2021, the direction of the monetary policy would continue to drive the sentiments for stocks as regards the yield environment. Accordingly, our prognosis for the Nigerian stock market in 2021 is that domestic interest, fuelled by dividend expectations, is likely to sustain the market rally in Q1-2021. However, in the absence of foreign demand, we see a short-term bear market from Q2 to Q3-2021”
Other key highlights of the report
- In the course of the year 2021, the monetary policies are expected to be flexed to stimulate the growth of the economy as well as assuage the subsisting harsh impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- The report succinctly states, “We imagine that monetary authorities will further ease or maintain policy rates at current levels till Q2 2021 to allow economies recover fully before contemplating tightening from Q3 2021.”
- The GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to rebound in 2021, though the rate of recovery shall vary from country to country. The improved exports, as well as commodity prices are expected to drive the growth, more especially as the global demand seems to be gradually recovering from the devastating impact of the pandemic.
With the second wave of COVID-19 infections and imminent lockdowns in several nations amidst limited access to vaccines, the growth projections might be threatened.
Financial Autonomy: Governors, State Speakers reach agreement
The Governor also said that the final document of the agreement should be ready for implementation by May 2021.
The Governors’ Forum, Conference of Speakers of State Legislature and other governance stakeholders announced that they reached a resolution over the implementation of financial autonomy for State Legislature and Judiciary.
This was disclosed by the Ekiti State Governor and Chairman Nigeria Governors’ Forum, Kayode Fayemi, after the meeting, which was held in Abuja on Monday, and presided by the Chief of Staff to the President, Prof. Ibrahim Gambari.
What the Governor said
“We are here for legislative and judicial autonomy and Governors; Speakers of State Assemblies and the Judges of the States are on the same page as far as this issue is concerned,” he said.
We just emerged from a meeting with the Solicitor General of the Federation, the representatives of the judiciary and those of the Conference of Speakers and we are all in force; an agreement has been reached.
The issue is about implementation. There has been no objection from governors on judicial and legislative autonomy.
As a matter of fact, it would not have passed if governors were not in support in the first instance. So, that issue has been fully and holistically addressed,” Fayemi said.
The Governor also said that the final document of the agreement should be ready for implementation by May 2021 and urged striking workers to return to offices “because as far as this has gone, we have met with all the parties concerned and the President, through his Chief of Staff, has been monitoring what has been happening.”
What you should know
Nairametrics reported earlier this month that members of the Judiciary Staff Union of Nigeria (JUSUN) went on strike with the closure of Federal High Courts in different states across the nation. The union said the purpose of the strike was to draw attention to the financial autonomy of Nigeria’s Judiciary.
Finance Minister tasks FG and state governments to control spending
The Minister also denied claims that the FG printed N60 billion as top-up for March FAAC numbers.
The Minister of Finance, Zainab Ahmed, has called on Governments on all levels in Nigeria to control spending amid decreasing revenues and urged for prudent government spending. The Minister also denied claims that the Federal Government printed N60 billion as top-up for March FAAC numbers.
The Minister disclosed this in an interview on Monday and warned that the FG was not generating enough revenue to align with its spending habit.
Zainab Ahmed added that the FG would maintain its stance from January 2021 to end total fuel subsidies in Nigeria, and confirmed talks with organised labour on subsidy removal.
“As a nation, the Federal, State and Local governments must review expenditure patterns. We are spending too much and we are not generating enough,” she said.
What you should know
Nairametrics reported last month that the Debt Management Office had announced that Nigeria’s public debt at end of 2020 was N32.915 trillion. The DMO said the sum of the debt included the Debt Stock of the Federal and State Governments, as well as the Federal Capital Territory.
Nairametrics | Company Earnings
Access our Live Feed portal for the latest company earnings as they drop.
- VFD Group set to raise additional capital of N9.01 billion through rights issue and private placement.
- GT Bank records a 9% dip in profit to N45.55 billion in Q1 2021.
- Secure Electronic Technology Plc records a 121% surge in Profit after tax in Q1 2021.
- Lafarge Africa Plc notifies stakeholders of 62nd Annual General Meeting.
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announces Annual General Meeting.