Commodities
Oil prices tumble, oil traders jittery on OPEC+ meeting
Crude oil plunged, largely due to growing concerns amongst oil traders on what the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting will be.
Crude oil traders became jittery at the first trading session of the week, pushing oil prices to fall more than 1.5%.
The plunge is largely attributed to growing concerns amongst oil traders on what the OPEC+ meeting outcome will be, as some leading oil producers like Nigeria seems to be unhappy with the prevailing status quo, on the bias that it hampers its oil revenue growth.
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- At the time of writing, Brent crude futures prices were down by more than 1.7% to trade at $47.35 a barrel.
- U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 1.62% to $44.83 a barrel.
However, both major crude oil benchmarks are still set for a gain of more than 20% in November, the highest monthly gains since May, boosted by hopes for three promising COVID-19 vaccines in curbing its spread and thus boost fuel demands.
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What they are saying
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, elaborated on expectations from the pending OPEC+ meeting by market players saying.
He said, “OPEC+ two-year-long strategic agreement aligns the group’s production silhouette with demand, while ensuring that the alliance continues to supply half of the world’s needed barrels – in line with its market share, simultaneously drawing down inventories.
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“After supply-dominated price dynamics over the previous business cycle, COVID-19 containment measures have turned demand into the market’s dominant driver, and this will continue to be the case until a successful vaccine is fully rolled out around the globe.”
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Bottom line
Price consolidation in the black fossil market remains in play at least for the near term, after a strong rise in crude prices over the past 2-3 weeks, coupled with Thanksgiving holidays observed in America, reduced trading volumes.
However, oil traders still remain constructive on oil markets recovery and crude oil stockpiles are yet to come down to normal levels.
Commodities
Oil prices surge over China’s growing appetite for energy
British based contract ticked up by 0.3% to trade at $63.59 a barrel while the WTI futures edged near $60 a barrel.
Oil prices rallied high at the second trading session of the week as data from the world’s second-largest oil consumer’s (China) import growth picked up coupled with rising tensions in the Middle East after rebels from Yemen disclosed that they fired missiles on Saudi’s energy infrastructure.
At the time of writing this report, the British based contract ticked up by 0.3% to trade at $63.59 a barrel while the West Texas Intermediate futures edged near $60 a barrel.
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The world’s second-largest economy recorded impressive gains for last month in yet another boost to China’s economic recovery as global demand gained momentum. Crude oil imports into China surged by 21% in March from a low base of comparison a year earlier.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi in a note to Nairametrics spoke on the parabolic of the energy market, as oil traders seem to be uninspired on the resurging COVID-19 virus;
“The oil market’s magnetic attraction to the $63 level should tell us much about the near-term outlook amid conflicting signal of new Covid waves coming to shore ahead of what should be a summer gasoline buying bonanza.
READ: Did OPEC+ April fool the oil market?
But overall, this is an oil market that feels completely uninspired outside of a few micro lurches here and there.
Still, positive comments on the US economy from Fed Chairman Powell help to reassure the outlook for oil demand, balancing concerns about the continued spread of Covid-19 in some regions.”
What to expect
Recent price actions suggest oil traders might hold the $60 a barrel baseline in the near term even if U.S Treasury yields surge while struggling to resolve with what form and fashion the next leg of the reflation trade will take.
Commodities
Oil prices stay on course as Saudi’s Energy Minister reassures traders
British based oil contract traded at about $63 a barrel while the WTI futures were trading slightly below the $60 price level.
Crude oil prices remained relatively firm at the early hours of Friday’s trading session as oil traders digested Saudi Arabia’s defense of OPEC+ plans in raising output thereby capping gains.
At press time, the British based oil contract traded at about $63 a barrel while the West Texas Intermediate futures were trading slightly below the $60 price level.
Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman recently revealed that there were no pressing concerns of demand/supply dynamics changing gear amid the gradual boost in outputs in an interview aired on Thursday, adding that OPEC+ had all ammunition put in place to change course if necessary. OPEC+ will continue to meet monthly on reviewing the energy market supply dynamics.
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Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi in a note to Nairametrics spoke on the prevailing market sentiment amid macros pointing to more oil supplies hitting the sensitive energy market and an upsurge in COVID-19 caseloads.
“Positioning is much cleaner, although the market remains directionally long oil. However, the sudden calm and drop in volatility have attracted passive investors back to the fray as the market structure around prompt spreads start to tighten and the dollar begins to roll over.
“Still, the conflicting signals around OPEC+ supply coming back to market amid spiking coronavirus case numbers in India plus parts of Canada as well as Tokyo backtracking into the lockdown Abyss, together with reports linking the UK’s Covid-19 vaccine workhorse to the higher frequency of blood clots, continues to hold the bulls at bay.”
READ: Did OPEC+ April fool the oil market?
What to expect: The most recent OPEC+ agreement on releasing barrels into such present demand was not out of place – suggesting the futuristic price of oil might range between the $60 -$70 price levels with production normalization vs current high excess production capacity taken into consideration.
