As the rally on the cryptocurrency market continues and interest on money market funds continues to fall, investors keep moving their assets around.
For the second consecutive week, the New Gold ETF, which trades on the Nigerian market has suffered huge outflows.
During the second week ending November, 13th, the new Gold ETF suffered a total redemption of N5.22 billion bringing its month-to-date (MTD) redemptions for the month of November to N21.7 billion.
This is according to analysis conducted by Quantitative Financial Analytics on the NAV Summary reports released by the Security and Exchange Commission, for the month of November, 2020.
Some money market funds have also been witnessing large outflows. Notable among them include FBN Money market fund, which has seen about N11 billion of redemptions, Stanbic IBTC money market fund has also recorded a redemption of N5.99 billion while ARM money market fund suffered a redemption of N3.487 billion, all within the month of November.
The redemptions from money market funds may not be unconnected with the near-zero interest rates being paid by the money market funds.
Currently, the FBN Money market fund’s yield is 1.79%, Stanbic IBTC money market fund now yield’s 1.36%, while ARM money market is yielding 1.717%, all on an annual basis.
Bond Funds Benefit: A closer analysis shows that those money market fund redemptions are finding their way into various bond and fixed income funds.
Since the beginning of the month of November, bond and fixed-income funds have welcomed some large contributions. Among them are UBN Bond fund which received about N8.7 billion, followed by Stanbic IBTC Bond fund’s N7.7 billion additional contribution.
Also, in that league are Stanbic IBTC Guarantee fund and Zenith Income fund that received estimated contributions of N2.28 billion and N2.147 billion respectively.
Compared to the yields on money market funds, Bond and Fixed income funds are currently providing better yields, but they are not the best in the industry currently.
This shows that investors are moving their fund investments in such a way as to derive better returns than what is obtainable from money market funds without necessarily incurring too much additional risks in the process.
Asset management implications: What is currently playing out in the Nigerian mutual fund arena is an indication that investors are cognizant of events in the market and are therefore actively managing their investments by moving them around among asset classes that are better able to give them better returns.
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Oil prices surge over China’s growing appetite for energy
British based contract ticked up by 0.3% to trade at $63.59 a barrel while the WTI futures edged near $60 a barrel.
Oil prices rallied high at the second trading session of the week as data from the world’s second-largest oil consumer’s (China) import growth picked up coupled with rising tensions in the Middle East after rebels from Yemen disclosed that they fired missiles on Saudi’s energy infrastructure.
At the time of writing this report, the British based contract ticked up by 0.3% to trade at $63.59 a barrel while the West Texas Intermediate futures edged near $60 a barrel.
The world’s second-largest economy recorded impressive gains for last month in yet another boost to China’s economic recovery as global demand gained momentum. Crude oil imports into China surged by 21% in March from a low base of comparison a year earlier.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi in a note to Nairametrics spoke on the parabolic of the energy market, as oil traders seem to be uninspired on the resurging COVID-19 virus;
“The oil market’s magnetic attraction to the $63 level should tell us much about the near-term outlook amid conflicting signal of new Covid waves coming to shore ahead of what should be a summer gasoline buying bonanza.
But overall, this is an oil market that feels completely uninspired outside of a few micro lurches here and there.
Still, positive comments on the US economy from Fed Chairman Powell help to reassure the outlook for oil demand, balancing concerns about the continued spread of Covid-19 in some regions.”
What to expect
Recent price actions suggest oil traders might hold the $60 a barrel baseline in the near term even if U.S Treasury yields surge while struggling to resolve with what form and fashion the next leg of the reflation trade will take.
Oil prices stay on course as Saudi’s Energy Minister reassures traders
British based oil contract traded at about $63 a barrel while the WTI futures were trading slightly below the $60 price level.
Crude oil prices remained relatively firm at the early hours of Friday’s trading session as oil traders digested Saudi Arabia’s defense of OPEC+ plans in raising output thereby capping gains.
At press time, the British based oil contract traded at about $63 a barrel while the West Texas Intermediate futures were trading slightly below the $60 price level.
Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman recently revealed that there were no pressing concerns of demand/supply dynamics changing gear amid the gradual boost in outputs in an interview aired on Thursday, adding that OPEC+ had all ammunition put in place to change course if necessary. OPEC+ will continue to meet monthly on reviewing the energy market supply dynamics.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi in a note to Nairametrics spoke on the prevailing market sentiment amid macros pointing to more oil supplies hitting the sensitive energy market and an upsurge in COVID-19 caseloads.
“Positioning is much cleaner, although the market remains directionally long oil. However, the sudden calm and drop in volatility have attracted passive investors back to the fray as the market structure around prompt spreads start to tighten and the dollar begins to roll over.
“Still, the conflicting signals around OPEC+ supply coming back to market amid spiking coronavirus case numbers in India plus parts of Canada as well as Tokyo backtracking into the lockdown Abyss, together with reports linking the UK’s Covid-19 vaccine workhorse to the higher frequency of blood clots, continues to hold the bulls at bay.”
What to expect: The most recent OPEC+ agreement on releasing barrels into such present demand was not out of place – suggesting the futuristic price of oil might range between the $60 -$70 price levels with production normalization vs current high excess production capacity taken into consideration.
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