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Currencies

Exchange rate stabilizes across forex markets as CBN intervenes

At the black market, the Naira remained stable against the dollar to close at N465/$1 on Tuesday.

Published

2 weeks ago

on

Exchange rate depreciates at NAFEX window as forex liquidity drops further by 57%, Central Bank Continues intervention in Forex market to stabilize Naira, Naira to depreciate slightly over $1.52 billion maturing contracts expires, Naira hits N388.84 to $1 at the currency spot market, Investors and Exporters (I&E) window, Naira weakens against the dollar by 1.14% amidst uncertainty, Naira gains against the dollar at I&E window, forex liquidity up by 242%  

Forex turnover rose by 173% as Nigeria’s exchange rate at the NAFEX window remained stable against the dollar to close at N385.67/$1 during intra-day trading on Tuesday, November 10.

Also, the naira remained stable against the dollar, closing at N465/$1 at the parallel market on Tuesday, November 10, 2020, as Bureau De Change operators get another round of dollar supply from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

READ: Naira stabilizes across forex markets as BDCs get over $450m allocation from CBN in 1 month

Parallel market: According to information from Abokifx – a prominent FX tracking website, at the black market where forex is traded unofficially, the Naira remained stable against the dollar to close at N465/$1 on Tuesday.

This was exactly the same rate that it exchanged for on Monday, November 9.

GTBank 728 x 90

READ: CBN announces resumption of sales of forex to BDC

  • The local currency had strengthened by about 7.8% within one week in September at the black market, as the CBN introduced some measures targeted at exporters and importers.
  • This was so as to try to boost the supply of dollars in the foreign exchange market, and reduce the high demand for forex by traders.
  • The CBN has sold over $500 million to BDCs since they resumed forex sales on Monday, September 7, 2020.
  • This was expected to inject more liquidity to the retail end of the foreign exchange market and discourage hoarding and speculation.
  • However, the exchange rate against the dollar has remained volatile after the initial gains made, following the CBN’s resumption of sales of dollars to the BDCs.
  • The President of the Association of Bureau De Change Operators, Aminu Gwadebe, said he expects the impact of the extra liquidity in the market to be gradual.
  • Despite the drop in speculative buying of foreign exchange, the huge demand backlog by manufacturers and foreign investors still puts pressure and creates a volatile situation in the foreign exchange market.

READ: Naira depreciates as dollar sales top $100m a day at I&E window

NAFEX: The Naira remained stable against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Tuesday, closing at N385.67/$1.

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  • This was the same rate that it exchanged for on Monday, November 9.
  • The opening indicative rate was N385.83 to a dollar on Tuesday. This represents a 38 kobo gain when compared to the N386.21 that was recorded on Monday.
  • The N393.57 to a dollar was the highest rate during intra-day trading before it closed at N385.67 to a dollar. It also sold for as low as N380/$1 during intraday trading.
  • Forex turnover: Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window rose by 173% on Tuesday, November 10, 2020.
  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover rose from $51.62 million on Monday, November 9, 2020, to $140.95 million on Tuesday, November 10, 2020.
  • The CBN is still struggling to clear the backlog of foreign exchange demand, especially by foreign investors wishing to repatriate their funds.
  • The increase in dollar supply after the previous trading day’s drop reinforces the volatility of the foreign exchange market. The supply of dollars has been on a decline for months due to low oil prices and the absence of foreign capital inflow into the country.
  • As part of the measures to check forex abuse and illegal transactions, the CBN last month directed the freezing of accounts of about 38 companies.
  • The average daily forex sale for last week was about $169.93 million, which represents a huge increase from the $34.5 million that was recorded the previous week.
  • Total forex trading at the NAFEX window in the month of September was about $1.98 billion, compared to $843.97 million in August.
  • The exchange rate is still being affected by low oil prices, dollar scarcity, a backlog of forex demand, and a shaky economy that has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

READ: Exchange rate falls at black market as forex liquidity declines by 89.8%

Explore Data on the Nairametrics Research Website

Related Topics:

Chike Olisah is a graduate of accountancy with over 15 years working experience in the financial service sector. He has worked in research and marketing departments of three top commercial banks. Chike is a senior member of the Nairametrics Editorial Team. You may contact him via his email- [email protected]

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Anonymous

    November 13, 2020 at 12:02 am

    With this, when are banks likely to increase their dollar spending limit to as it used to be?

    Reply

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Currencies

Breaking: Naira devalued, now N390/$1 as black market (wired) hits N503/$1

Nairametrics can confirm that the exchange rate between the naira and dollar has depreciated to N390/$1.

Published

3 hours ago

on

November 27, 2020

By

Naira stabilizes at black market as CBN continues its intervention in forex market

Nairametrics can confirm that the exchange rate between the naira and dollar has depreciated to N390/$1 at the FMDQOTC NAFEX market, an official market where the exchange rate is traded.

We first observed the depreciation in our daily market survey on Thursday, November 26th when it traded at N390/$1. The rate remained the same today confirming that it is not a one-off. The exchange rate closed at N390.25/$1 on Friday after trading at a high price of N400.37 and a low price of N383/$1. The exchange rate at the NAFEX market has traded between  N383 and N385 per dollar respectively.

CBN Devalues

A recent circular seen by Nairametrics, also suggests the CBN has devalued the exchange rate between the dollar and naira sold to the BDC’s to N390/$1. The circular also mandates the BDCs to sell to potential buyers at N392/$1. The volume of sales for each market is $10,000 per BDC.

See excerpt of the circular:

Please be advised that the applicable exchange rate for the disbursement of proceeds of IMTOs, for the period Monday, November 30th to Friday, December 14, 2020, is as follows.

GTBank 728 x 90

I. IMTSOs to banks – N388/1USD

II. Banks to CBN –  N399/1USD

III. CBN to BDCs – N390/1USD

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IV. BDCs to end-users Not more than N392/1USD

V.  Volumes of sale for each market is USD10,000.00 per BDC

The circular seen by Nairametrics was signed by Dr. O.S. Nnaji, Director of Trade and Exchange at the CBN, and dated November 30th, 2020. We also understand the CBN intervened in the market today at a spot price of N393.37/$1 while its 150 days forward rates moved to N399.37 in a bid to clear backlogs.  Nairametrics estimated pent-up demand could be between $2 billion and $3.5 billion.

What you should know

Last August, the CBN devalued the naira after issuing a circular authorizing dealers instructing them to sell forex to end-users at N386/$1. It was the first time the CBN will be selling forex to BDC traders since it stopped on March 27th as the country faced an imminent lockdown. Since then, the exchange rate at the black market has gone from N395/$1 on March 27, 2020, to N495/$1 as of November 27, 2020, exactly 8months later.

  • The exchange rate at the parallel market (black market) fell to N495/$1 on Friday closing the week at the weakest price since 2017. Wired transfers done outside of the official system closed as high as N503/$1 according to Nairalytics monitored, the research arm of Nairametrics.
  • Just recently, Nairametrics learned that there are limitations to the transfer of forex from domiciliary in Nigeria to accounts in the US. However, it appears there are no restrictions to domiciliary accounts that received inflows attributed to foreign-related income earned doing business or wired inflows.
  • Foreign investors appear to have also found new routes of moving to repatriate their forex out of Nigeria. Some purchase shares of companies that are dual-listed and then sell them on the London Stock Exchange. We understand this may have contributed to the rise in the value of Seplat and New Gold ETF, two stocks that are dual-listed. Airtel, also listed in the UK,  experienced a similar bump in prices.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday as Brent Crude prices traded at $47.9. The CBN needs oil prices to go above $50 if it wants to continue with the controversial policy of defending the exchange rate.

Local Demand Pressure

Nigeria’s exchange rate situation has entered a precarious era of uncertainty with demand coming from all corners. According to Nairalytics research, Nigerians looking to take advantage of last-minute Black Friday deals in the US have also contributed significantly to the demand pressure. Holidaymakers are also sourcing for forex ahead of the Christmas holiday as they anticipate more devaluations.

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Nairalytics research also indicates some of the demand is coming from business with local forex obligations such as servicing dollar-denominated debts, expatriate staff, luxury items, imported items without local substitutes, etc.

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Currencies

Daily Parallel Market Exchange Rate – ₦490/$1

The US dollar closed at ₦490/US$1 in the parallel market.

Published

10 hours ago

on

November 27, 2020

By

Forex, NIGERIA: Daily Parallel Market, Exchange Rate

The exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar for today (Friday, November 27th 2020), closed at ₦490/US$1 in the parallel market. The rate had closed at ₦480/US$1 on Thursday, November 26th 2020.

  • Naira: ₦490
  • Dollar: $1
  • Date: November 27th, 2020

The exchange rate between the naira and the British pound sterling closed at ₦620/₤1 on Friday,  November 27th 2020. The rate had closed at ₦605/₤1 on Thursday, November 26th 2020.

  • Naira: ₦620
  • Pounds Sterling: ₤1
  • Date: November 27th, 2020

Explore Economic Research Data From Nairametrics on Nairalytics

The exchange rate between the naira and the European euro closed at ₦570/€1 on Friday November 27th 2020. The rate had closed at ₦560/€1 on Thursday, November 26th 2020.

  • Naira: ₦570
  • Euro: €1
  • Date: November 27th, 2020

Activity: US Dollar closed at ₦490/US$1 in the parallel market

GTBank 728 x 90

READ ALSO: The risk of buying Forex at black market rate of N460/$1 

DateCurrencyBuy(AM)Sell(AM)Buy(PM)Sell(PM)Volatility
11/27/2020Dollar485490485490Low
11/27/2020Pounds615620615620Low
11/27/2020Euro565570565570Low
11/26/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/26/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/26/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/25/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/25/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/25/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/24/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/24/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/24/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/23/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/23/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/23/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/20/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/20/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/20/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/19/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/19/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/19/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/18/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/18/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/18/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/17/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/17/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/17/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/16/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/16/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/16/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/13/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/13/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/13/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/12/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/12/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/12/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/11/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/11/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/11/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/10/2020Dollar457462457462Low
11/10/2020Pounds583587583587Low
11/10/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/09/2020Dollar457462457462Low
11/09/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/09/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/06/2020Dollar457462457462Low
11/06/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/06/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/05/2020Dollar457462457462Low
11/05/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/05/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/04/2020Dollar457462457462Low
11/04/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/04/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/03/2020Dollar457462457462Low
11/03/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/03/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/02/2020Dollar457460457460Low
11/02/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/02/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/30/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/30/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/29/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/29/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/28/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/28/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/27/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/27/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/27/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/26/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/26/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/26/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/23/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/23/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/22/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/22/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/22/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/21/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/21/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/21/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/20/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/20/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/20/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/19/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/19/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/19/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/16/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/16/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/16/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/15/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/15/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/15/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/14/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/14/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/14/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/13/2020Dollar453458455460Low
10/13/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/13/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/12/2020Dollar452458452458Low
10/12/2020Pounds580585580585Low
10/12/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/09/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/09/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/09/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/08/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/08/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/08/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/07/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/07/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/07/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/06/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/06/2020Pounds580585580585Low
10/06/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/05/2020Dollar452455452455Low
10/05/2020Pounds570580570580Low
10/05/2020Euro540545540545Low
10/02/2020Dollar460465460465Low
10/02/2020Pounds575585575585Low
10/02/2020Euro530540530540Low
10/01/2020Dollar460465460465Low
10/01/2020Pounds575585575585Low
10/01/2020Euro530540530540Low
9/30/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/30/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/29/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/29/2020Pounds565575570580Low
9/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/28/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/28/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/25/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/25/2020Pounds565575565575Low
9/25/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/24/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/24/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/24/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/23/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/23/2020Pounds580585580585Low
9/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/22/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/22/2020Pounds575585575580Low
9/22/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/21/2020Dollar453455450455Low
9/21/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/21/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/18/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/18/2020Pounds575595575595Low
9/18/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/17/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/17/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/17/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/16/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/16/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/16/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/15/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/15/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/15/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/14/2020Dollar445455445455Low
9/14/2020Pounds560575560575Low
9/14/2020Euro515525515525Low
09/11/2020Dollar450455450455Low
09/11/2020Pounds555565555565Low
09/11/2020Euro525530525530Low
09/10/2020Dollar455460455460Low
09/10/2020Pounds545560545560Low
09/10/2020Euro525530525530Low
09/09/2020Dollar430440430440Low
09/09/2020Pounds540555540555Low
09/09/2020Euro500510500510Low
09/08/2020Dollar435440435440Low
09/08/2020Pounds540550540550Low
09/08/2020Euro505515505515Low
09/07/2020Dollar435440435440Low
09/07/2020Pounds525530525530Low
09/07/2020Euro505515505515Low
09/04/2020Dollar425440425440Low
09/04/2020Pounds560580560580Low
09/04/2020Euro505515505515Low
09/03/2020Dollar425440425440Low
09/03/2020Pounds560580560580Low
09/03/2020Euro520535505515High
09/02/2020Dollar425440425440Low
09/02/2020Pounds570580560580Low
09/02/2020Euro535540520535Low
09/01/2020Dollar462465435440High
09/01/2020Pounds565575570580Low
09/01/2020Euro535540535540Low
8/31/2020Dollar463470460465High
8/31/2020Pounds585595580590Low
8/31/2020Euro540545540545Low
8/28/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/28/2020Pounds580595580595Low
8/28/2020Euro545552545552Low
8/27/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/27/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/27/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/26/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/26/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/26/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/25/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/25/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/25/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/24/2020Dollar473477473477Low
8/24/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/24/2020Euro542550542550Low
8/21/2020Dollar474477474477Low
8/21/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/21/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/20/2020Dollar475478473477Low
8/20/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/20/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/19/2020Dollar475480475480Low
8/19/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/19/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/18/2020Dollar477480477480Low
8/18/2020Pounds575580575580Low
8/18/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/17/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/17/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/17/2020Euro525535525535Low
8/14/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/14/2020Pounds570580570580Low
8/14/2020Euro525535520535Low
8/13/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/13/2020Pounds570575565575Low
8/13/2020Euro525530520530Low
08/12/2020Dollar470475470475Low
08/12/2020Pounds570575570575Low
08/12/2020Euro520530520530Low
08/11/2020Dollar477485477485Low
08/11/2020Pounds572584572584Low
08/11/2020Euro510523520535Low
08/10/2020Dollar477485477485Low
08/10/2020Pounds572584572584Low
08/10/2020Euro510523520535High
08/07/2020Dollar475486475486Low
08/07/2020Pounds578585578585Low
08/07/2020Euro536550536550Low
08/06/2020Dollar470480475486Low
08/06/2020Pounds575587578585Low
08/06/2020Euro534545536550Low
08/05/2020Dollar465475473483Low
08/05/2020Pounds570580575587Low
08/05/2020Euro525540532545Low
08/04/2020Dollar470480470480Low
08/04/2020Pounds560570560570Low
08/04/2020Euro520530520530Low
08/03/2020Dollar470480470480Low
08/03/2020Pounds560570560570Low
08/03/2020Euro520530520530Low
7/31/2020Dollar470480470485High
7/31/2020Pounds570582575585Low
7/31/2020Euro500520505520Low
7/30/2020Dollar470490470485High
7/30/2020Pounds550570550580High
7/30/2020Euro495520500525High
7/29/2020Dollar468475467475Low
7/29/2020Pounds575585580590Low
7/29/2020Euro530540530545Low
7/28/2020Dollar469475467475Low
7/28/2020Pounds575593580595Low
7/28/2020Euro550560540550Low
7/27/2020Dollar465473466473Low
7/27/2020Pounds570580575583Low
7/27/2020Euro510520515530Low
7/24/2020Dollar465472464472Low
7/24/2020Pounds570580572582Low
7/24/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/23/2020Dollar460472465472Low
7/23/2020Pounds565575565580Low
7/23/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/22/2020Dollar465472465472Low
7/22/2020Pounds565575560578Low
7/22/2020Euro510525510528Low
7/21/2020Dollar461472462472Low
7/21/2020Pounds560573560575Low
7/21/2020Euro498515500520Low
7/20/2020Dollar460473462473Low
7/20/2020Pounds550570555575Low
7/20/2020Euro495505500510Low
7/17/2020Dollar462470460470Low
7/17/2020Pounds560570558570Low
7/17/2020Euro490500490500Low
7/16/2020Dollar460470460470Low
7/16/2020Pounds558565560570Low
7/16/2020Euro485495485499Low
7/15/2020Dollar455465455470Low
7/15/2020Pounds560565558570Low
7/15/2020Euro485495488498Low
7/14/2020Dollar448462455470Low
7/14/2020Pounds540550557570Low
7/14/2020Euro485495489498Low
7/13/2020Dollar450460448462Low
7/13/2020Pounds540550540550Low
7/13/2020Euro485495485495Low
07/10/2020Dollar453460458465Low
07/10/2020Pounds520525550555High
07/10/2020Euro465467510520High
07/09/2020Dollar455461455463Low
07/09/2020Pounds550558550562Low
07/09/2020Euro495504498505Low
07/08/2020Dollar455461455461Low
07/08/2020Pounds550558550558Low
07/08/2020Euro495504495504Low
07/07/2020Dollar455461455461Low
07/07/2020Pounds550558550558Low
07/07/2020Euro495502495502Low
07/06/2020Dollar455462455461Low
07/06/2020Pounds550562547555Low
07/06/2020Euro495502496502Low
07/03/2020Dollar455462454461Low
07/03/2020Pounds548560550560Low
07/03/2020Euro495505495502Low
07/02/2020Dollar455462454461Low
07/02/2020Pounds548560550560Low
07/02/2020Euro495505495502Low
07/01/2020Dollar455462455462Low
07/01/2020Pounds548560548560Low
07/01/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/30/2020Dollar452460452460Low
6/30/2020Pounds547560547560Low
6/30/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/29/2020Dollar450460450460Low
6/29/2020Pounds547560547560Low
6/29/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/26/2020Dollar452457452460Low
6/26/2020Pounds547557547560Low
6/26/2020Euro490498490502Low
6/25/2020Dollar452457450455Low
6/25/2020Pounds547557547560Low
6/25/2020Euro490498490499Low
6/24/2020Dollar450460450455Low
6/24/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/24/2020Euro490495488498Low
6/23/2020Dollar450460445455Low
6/23/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/23/2020Euro490495490495Low
6/22/2020Dollar450455450455Low
6/22/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/22/2020Euro488498488498Low
6/19/2020Dollar445455445455Low
6/19/2020Pounds540553540553Low
6/19/2020Euro480490480490Low
6/18/2020Dollar445452445452Low
6/18/2020Pounds537550537550Low
6/18/2020Euro475490475490Low
6/17/2020Dollar445452445452Low
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30/08/2019Pounds442448440445Low
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29/04/2019Pounds470475470475Low
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Data is collated from various black market dealers on the mainland and island parts of Lagos State where forex is sold. The price quoted daily on this page represents the average price obtained by our Research Team. Our prices are a guide and could be slightly different from the price you get when you eventually decide to buy or sell. This is a daily tracker and updated close of business. See table below for parallel market exchange rate dating to 2019.

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Currencies

Dollar Exchange Rate: The demand and supply crossroads

If the supply of dollars from the CBN meets or exceeds the demand for Naira by importers, then the dollar exchange rate weakens in favour of the Naira.

Published

10 hours ago

on

November 27, 2020

By

Why exchange rate disparity remains high despite CBN’s intervention

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Godwin Emefiele recently mentioned that the “parallel market”, otherwise known as the black market is “only 5% of the total foreign exchange market, it is shallow and cannot be used to determine the true exchange value for the naira.”

This is also not the first time the CBN Governor has attacked the black market. In Abuja, he infamously ‘cut down the trees’ that gave the currency exchangers shade from the sun, to convert dollar cash to Naira. On May 18th, 2018, the CBN Governor also told investors “don’t go to the black market, because you will lose money by buying at a price that is not realistic.”

The CBN’s argument is simple, you cannot use the price discovery on a small market to determine the market price on a larger market. Respectfully, the CBN Governor is wrong.

The black market is small but the market price of exchanging $1 to N480 reflects the demand from all buyers, in contrast with the CBN official rate of N380 at NAFEX, which does not include the item not eligible for CBN forex.

The CBN has maintained an updated list of imports that cannot access the said NAFEX window including, Rice, Cement, Poultry, Meat, Iron rods, Cocoa butter, powder and cakes, amongst others.

GTBank 728 x 90

Hence, the CBN bans these importers from accessing forex from NAFEX, essentially calling the market rates “unrealistic”, then the CBN asks importers of staple food like rice to go to the same “unrealistic” market, that according to the CBN Governor “is a tainted market, where people who desire to deal in an illegal exchange of transactions deal.”

How is the price of a commodity or asset determined?

John Locke, a famous philosopher is credited with the first serious description of demand and supply and how it affects prices. In his 1691 letter to the English Parliament, titled: “Some Considerations on the Consequences of the Lowering of Interest and the Raising of the Value of Money,” he said the price of any commodity rises or falls by the proportion of the number of buyers and sellers.

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He said, “that which regulates the price of goods of assets is nothing else but their quantity in proportion to their demand.”

He further said, the demand for money is exclusively regulated by its quantity, regardless of whether the demand for money is unlimited or constant. For supply, he explains the value of goods as based on their scarcity and ability to be exchanged and consumed.

Johns Locke’s theories were the basis of Adam Smith’s book  “Wealth of Nations“, in which he laid out the principles of demand and supply. Those theories now form the basis of economics and trade.

In economics, demand and supply intersect and the price is discovered. If there is more demand but supply is constant, price rises; if supply is more, but demand is constant, then price falls.

In effect, if the supply of dollars from the CBN meets or exceeds the demand for Naira by importers, then the dollar exchange rate weakens in favour of the Naira.

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For the CBN exchange rate to reflect the true value of the naira, it must be an inclusive market where all buyers and sellers of foreign exchange can meet and agree on a price.

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The CBN is worried about pass-through inflation, that if rice is imported using the market-determined exchange rate, the importers will simply pass through that exchange rate to local consumers; thus, triggering a rise in prices driven by the exchange rate.

The problem is that it is already happening, food price has been rising based on the data from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, caused by higher imported food cost and lower local supply due to banditry in parts of the North East, and has risen from 14.85 in January to 17.38 in October 2020.

The price to exchange one US Dollar to the Nigerian Naira can only be discovered in a free, fair, and transparent market, open to all with the “invisible hand” acting as regulator, no other way.

Follow Kalu Aja on Twitter: @FinPlanKaluAja1

Also check out: https://feeds.captivate.fm/the-way-i-see-it/

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