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Currencies

Naira strengthens at forex market despite significant drop in dollar supply

The Naira appreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Tuesday.

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Naira strengthens at forex market despite significant drop in dollar supply, Exchange rate gains at the black market as FX Turnover rises over 1000%.

Forex turnover declined by 57% as Nigeria’s exchange rate at the NAFEX window appreciated for the first time after being stable for six consecutive trading days to close at N385.80/$1 during intraday trading on Tuesday, September 22.

Also, the naira remained stable for the second consecutive trading day closing at N465/$1 at the parallel market

Parallel Market: At the black market where forex is traded unofficially, the Naira remained stable against the dollar to close at N465/$1 on Tuesday, according to information from Abokifx, a prominent FX tracking website. This was the same rate that it exchanged on Monday, September 21.

READ: How Apple lost over $500 billion in 12 trading days

Currency Developments

  • The local currency has strengthened by about 7.8% within the last one week at the black market, as the Central Bank of Nigeria introduced some measures targeted at exporters and importers in order to try to boost the supply of dollars in the foreign exchange market and reduce the high demand for forex by traders.
  • The CBN has sold over $150 million to BDCs since the resumed forex sales on Monday, September 7, 2020. This was expected to inject more liquidity to the retail end of the foreign exchange market and discourage hoarding and speculation.
  • However, the exchange rate against the dollar has failed to sustain the initial gains made after the CBN announced plans to provide liquidity.
  • BDC operators have urged the apex bank to reconsider the margin allowed for the currency traders as it was inadequate to meet their expenses.
  • We also noted that forex traders monitored during the previous week appear to hoard forex as they anticipated further depreciation in the market.
  • There has been a drop in speculative buying of foreign exchange, although demand backlog by manufacturers and foreign investors still puts pressure and creates a volatile situation in the foreign exchange market.

READ: Naira falls to N460/$1 as CBN intervention fails to contain speculation

GTBank 728 x 90

NAFEX: The Naira appreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Tuesday, closing at N385.80/$1.

  • This represents a 20 kobo gain when compared to the N386/$1 that it exchanged for on Monday, September 21.
  • The opening indicative rate was N386.70 to a dollar on Tuesday. This represents a 55 kobo drop when compared to the N386.15 to a dollar that was recorded on Monday.
  • The N392.50 to a dollar is the highest rate during intraday trading before closing at the rate of N386/$1. It also sold for as low as N379.85/$1 during intraday trading.

READ: Finding Balance: GTB’s impeccable gains versus its notable losses

Forex Turnover: Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window declined by 56.8% on Tuesday, September 22, 2020.

GTBank 728 x 90
  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover dropped from $68.14 million on Monday, September 21, 2020, to $29.42 million on Tuesday, September 22, 2020.
  • The CBN had in the past few weeks moved to clear the huge backlog of foreign exchange demand, especially by foreign investors wishing to repatriate back their funds.
  • The significant drop in forex supply reinforces the volatility of the foreign exchange market. The supply of dollars has been on a decline for months due to low oil prices and the absence of foreign capital inflow into the country.
  • The average daily forex sale for last week was about $34.5 million which represents a drop from the $58.52 million that was recorded the previous week.
  • Total forex trading at the NAFEX window in the month of August was about $857 million compared to $937 million in July.
  • The CBN in the latest report on Monetary, credit, foreign trade and exchange policy guidelines for fiscal year 2020/2021, lamented that forex market pressure which is as a result of speculative activities in the BDC and I & E segments of the foreign exchange market is expected to exert more pressure on the naira exchange rate.

Explore the Nairametrics Research Website for Economic and Financial Data

Chike Olisah is a graduate of accountancy with over 15 years working experience in the financial service sector. He has worked in research and marketing departments of three top commercial banks. Chike is a senior member of the Nairametrics Editorial Team. You may contact him via his email- [email protected]

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Currencies

Daily Parallel Market Exchange Rate – ₦460/$1

The US dollar closed at ₦460/US$1 in the parallel market

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on

Forex, NIGERIA: Daily Parallel Market, Exchange Rate

The exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar for today (Friday, October 30th 2020), closed at 460/US$1 in the parallel market. The rate had also closed at 460/US$1 on Thursday, October 29th 2020.

  • Naira:460
  • Dollar: $1
  • Date: October 30th, 2020

The exchange rate between the naira and the British pound sterling closed at ₦590/₤1 on Friday, 30th October 2020. The rate had also closed at ₦590/₤1 on Thursday, October 29th 2020.

  • Naira: ₦590
  • Pounds Sterling: ₤1
  • Date: October 30th, 2020

Explore Economic Research Data From Nairametrics on Nairalytics

The exchange rate between the naira and the European euro closed at ₦535/€1 on Friday 30th October 2020. The rate had also closed at ₦535/€1 on Thursday, October 29th 2020.

  • Naira: ₦535
  • Euro: €1
  • Date: October 30th, 2020

Activity: US Dollar closed at 460/US$1 in the parallel market

GTBank 728 x 90

READ ALSO: The risk of buying Forex at black market rate of N460/$1 

DateCurrencyBuy(AM)Sell(AM)Buy(PM)Sell(PM)Volatility
10/30/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/30/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/29/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/29/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/28/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/28/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/27/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/27/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/27/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/26/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/26/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/26/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/23/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/23/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/22/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/22/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/22/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/21/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/21/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/21/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/20/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/20/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/20/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/19/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/19/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/19/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/16/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/16/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/16/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/15/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/15/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/15/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/14/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/14/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/14/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/13/2020Dollar453458455460Low
10/13/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/13/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/12/2020Dollar452458452458Low
10/12/2020Pounds580585580585Low
10/12/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/09/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/09/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/09/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/08/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/08/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/08/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/07/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/07/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/07/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/06/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/06/2020Pounds580585580585Low
10/06/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/05/2020Dollar452455452455Low
10/05/2020Pounds570580570580Low
10/05/2020Euro540545540545Low
10/02/2020Dollar460465460465Low
10/02/2020Pounds575585575585Low
10/02/2020Euro530540530540Low
10/01/2020Dollar460465460465Low
10/01/2020Pounds575585575585Low
10/01/2020Euro530540530540Low
9/30/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/30/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/29/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/29/2020Pounds565575570580Low
9/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/28/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/28/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/25/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/25/2020Pounds565575565575Low
9/25/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/24/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/24/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/24/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/23/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/23/2020Pounds580585580585Low
9/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/22/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/22/2020Pounds575585575580Low
9/22/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/21/2020Dollar453455450455Low
9/21/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/21/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/18/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/18/2020Pounds575595575595Low
9/18/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/17/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/17/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/17/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/16/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/16/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/16/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/15/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/15/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/15/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/14/2020Dollar445455445455Low
9/14/2020Pounds560575560575Low
9/14/2020Euro515525515525Low
09/11/2020Dollar450455450455Low
09/11/2020Pounds555565555565Low
09/11/2020Euro525530525530Low
09/10/2020Dollar455460455460Low
09/10/2020Pounds545560545560Low
09/10/2020Euro525530525530Low
09/09/2020Dollar430440430440Low
09/09/2020Pounds540555540555Low
09/09/2020Euro500510500510Low
09/08/2020Dollar435440435440Low
09/08/2020Pounds540550540550Low
09/08/2020Euro505515505515Low
09/07/2020Dollar435440435440Low
09/07/2020Pounds525530525530Low
09/07/2020Euro505515505515Low
09/04/2020Dollar425440425440Low
09/04/2020Pounds560580560580Low
09/04/2020Euro505515505515Low
09/03/2020Dollar425440425440Low
09/03/2020Pounds560580560580Low
09/03/2020Euro520535505515High
09/02/2020Dollar425440425440Low
09/02/2020Pounds570580560580Low
09/02/2020Euro535540520535Low
09/01/2020Dollar462465435440High
09/01/2020Pounds565575570580Low
09/01/2020Euro535540535540Low
8/31/2020Dollar463470460465High
8/31/2020Pounds585595580590Low
8/31/2020Euro540545540545Low
8/28/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/28/2020Pounds580595580595Low
8/28/2020Euro545552545552Low
8/27/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/27/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/27/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/26/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/26/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/26/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/25/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/25/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/25/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/24/2020Dollar473477473477Low
8/24/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/24/2020Euro542550542550Low
8/21/2020Dollar474477474477Low
8/21/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/21/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/20/2020Dollar475478473477Low
8/20/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/20/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/19/2020Dollar475480475480Low
8/19/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/19/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/18/2020Dollar477480477480Low
8/18/2020Pounds575580575580Low
8/18/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/17/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/17/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/17/2020Euro525535525535Low
8/14/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/14/2020Pounds570580570580Low
8/14/2020Euro525535520535Low
8/13/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/13/2020Pounds570575565575Low
8/13/2020Euro525530520530Low
08/12/2020Dollar470475470475Low
08/12/2020Pounds570575570575Low
08/12/2020Euro520530520530Low
08/11/2020Dollar477485477485Low
08/11/2020Pounds572584572584Low
08/11/2020Euro510523520535Low
08/10/2020Dollar477485477485Low
08/10/2020Pounds572584572584Low
08/10/2020Euro510523520535High
08/07/2020Dollar475486475486Low
08/07/2020Pounds578585578585Low
08/07/2020Euro536550536550Low
08/06/2020Dollar470480475486Low
08/06/2020Pounds575587578585Low
08/06/2020Euro534545536550Low
08/05/2020Dollar465475473483Low
08/05/2020Pounds570580575587Low
08/05/2020Euro525540532545Low
08/04/2020Dollar470480470480Low
08/04/2020Pounds560570560570Low
08/04/2020Euro520530520530Low
08/03/2020Dollar470480470480Low
08/03/2020Pounds560570560570Low
08/03/2020Euro520530520530Low
7/31/2020Dollar470480470485High
7/31/2020Pounds570582575585Low
7/31/2020Euro500520505520Low
7/30/2020Dollar470490470485High
7/30/2020Pounds550570550580High
7/30/2020Euro495520500525High
7/29/2020Dollar468475467475Low
7/29/2020Pounds575585580590Low
7/29/2020Euro530540530545Low
7/28/2020Dollar469475467475Low
7/28/2020Pounds575593580595Low
7/28/2020Euro550560540550Low
7/27/2020Dollar465473466473Low
7/27/2020Pounds570580575583Low
7/27/2020Euro510520515530Low
7/24/2020Dollar465472464472Low
7/24/2020Pounds570580572582Low
7/24/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/23/2020Dollar460472465472Low
7/23/2020Pounds565575565580Low
7/23/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/22/2020Dollar465472465472Low
7/22/2020Pounds565575560578Low
7/22/2020Euro510525510528Low
7/21/2020Dollar461472462472Low
7/21/2020Pounds560573560575Low
7/21/2020Euro498515500520Low
7/20/2020Dollar460473462473Low
7/20/2020Pounds550570555575Low
7/20/2020Euro495505500510Low
7/17/2020Dollar462470460470Low
7/17/2020Pounds560570558570Low
7/17/2020Euro490500490500Low
7/16/2020Dollar460470460470Low
7/16/2020Pounds558565560570Low
7/16/2020Euro485495485499Low
7/15/2020Dollar455465455470Low
7/15/2020Pounds560565558570Low
7/15/2020Euro485495488498Low
7/14/2020Dollar448462455470Low
7/14/2020Pounds540550557570Low
7/14/2020Euro485495489498Low
7/13/2020Dollar450460448462Low
7/13/2020Pounds540550540550Low
7/13/2020Euro485495485495Low
07/10/2020Dollar453460458465Low
07/10/2020Pounds520525550555High
07/10/2020Euro465467510520High
07/09/2020Dollar455461455463Low
07/09/2020Pounds550558550562Low
07/09/2020Euro495504498505Low
07/08/2020Dollar455461455461Low
07/08/2020Pounds550558550558Low
07/08/2020Euro495504495504Low
07/07/2020Dollar455461455461Low
07/07/2020Pounds550558550558Low
07/07/2020Euro495502495502Low
07/06/2020Dollar455462455461Low
07/06/2020Pounds550562547555Low
07/06/2020Euro495502496502Low
07/03/2020Dollar455462454461Low
07/03/2020Pounds548560550560Low
07/03/2020Euro495505495502Low
07/02/2020Dollar455462454461Low
07/02/2020Pounds548560550560Low
07/02/2020Euro495505495502Low
07/01/2020Dollar455462455462Low
07/01/2020Pounds548560548560Low
07/01/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/30/2020Dollar452460452460Low
6/30/2020Pounds547560547560Low
6/30/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/29/2020Dollar450460450460Low
6/29/2020Pounds547560547560Low
6/29/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/26/2020Dollar452457452460Low
6/26/2020Pounds547557547560Low
6/26/2020Euro490498490502Low
6/25/2020Dollar452457450455Low
6/25/2020Pounds547557547560Low
6/25/2020Euro490498490499Low
6/24/2020Dollar450460450455Low
6/24/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/24/2020Euro490495488498Low
6/23/2020Dollar450460445455Low
6/23/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/23/2020Euro490495490495Low
6/22/2020Dollar450455450455Low
6/22/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/22/2020Euro488498488498Low
6/19/2020Dollar445455445455Low
6/19/2020Pounds540553540553Low
6/19/2020Euro480490480490Low
6/18/2020Dollar445452445452Low
6/18/2020Pounds537550537550Low
6/18/2020Euro475490475490Low
6/17/2020Dollar445452445452Low
6/17/2020Pounds540553537550Low
6/17/2020Euro475490475490Low
6/16/2020Dollar440450445452Low
6/16/2020Pounds540550540553Low
6/16/2020Euro475485475490Low
6/15/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/15/2020Pounds540550540550Low
6/15/2020Euro475485475485Low
06/12/2020Dollar440450440450Low
06/12/2020Pounds538550538550Low
06/12/2020Euro470485470485Low
06/11/2020Pounds538550538550Low
06/11/2020Dollar440450440450Low
06/11/2020Euro470485470485Low
06/10/2020Pounds538550540553Low
06/10/2020Dollar440450445452Low
06/10/2020Euro470485475490Low
06/09/2020Pounds538550540550Low
06/09/2020Dollar440450440450Low
06/09/2020Euro470485475485Low
06/08/2020Pounds540550540550Low
06/08/2020Dollar440450440450Low
06/08/2020Euro475485475485Low
06/05/2020Pounds535545535545Low
06/05/2020Dollar440450440450Low
06/05/2020Euro460472460472Low
06/04/2020Pounds530543530543Low
06/04/2020Dollar440447440447Low
06/04/2020Euro460470460470Low
06/03/2020Pounds530540530540Low
06/03/2020Dollar440445440445Low
06/03/2020Euro460470460470Low
06/02/2020Pounds535545535545Low
06/02/2020Dollar440450440450Low
06/02/2020Euro460472460472Low
06/01/2020Pounds530543530543Low
06/01/2020Dollar440447440447Low
06/01/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/29/2020Pounds530540530540Low
5/29/2020Dollar440445440445Low
5/29/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/28/2020Pounds535545535545Low
5/28/2020Dollar440450440450Low
5/28/2020Euro460472460472Low
5/27/2020Pounds530543530543Low
5/27/2020Dollar440447440447Low
5/27/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/26/2020Pounds530540530540Low
5/26/2020Dollar440445440445Low
5/26/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/25/2020Pounds535545535545Low
5/25/2020Dollar440450440450Low
5/25/2020Euro460472460472Low
5/22/2020Pounds530543530543Low
5/22/2020Dollar440447440447Low
5/22/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/21/2020Pounds530545530545Low
5/21/2020Dollar450460450460Low
5/21/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/20/2020Pounds530550530550Low
5/20/2020Dollar445460445460Low
5/20/2020Euro450470450470Low
5/19/2020Pounds528540528540Low
5/19/2020Dollar445460445460Low
5/19/2020Euro450465450465Low
5/18/2020Pounds528540528540Low
5/18/2020Dollar445460445460Low
5/18/2020Euro450465450465Low
5/15/2020Pounds530540525535Low
5/15/2020Dollar435450440455Low
5/15/2020Euro450460450465Low
5/14/2020Pounds530540530540Low
5/14/2020Dollar435450435450Low
5/14/2020Euro450460450460Low
5/13/2020Pounds525535525535Low
5/13/2020Dollar430450430450Low
5/13/2020Euro440455440455Low
05/12/2020Pounds525535525535Low
05/12/2020Dollar435450435450Low
05/12/2020Euro445455445455Low
05/11/2020Pounds510530525535Low
05/11/2020Dollar430445435445Low
05/11/2020Euro440450445455Low
05/08/2020Pounds510530510530Low
05/08/2020Dollar425437430445Low
05/08/2020Euro425440440450Low
05/07/2020Pounds510530510530Low
05/07/2020Dollar425437425437Low
05/07/2020Euro425440425440Low
05/06/2020Pounds510520510520Low
05/06/2020Dollar425437425437Low
05/06/2020Euro430450430450Low
05/05/2020Pounds510525510525Low
05/05/2020Dollar410430420430Low
05/05/2020Euro425435425435Low
05/04/2020Pounds500510510525Low
05/04/2020Dollar435450410430Low
05/04/2020Euro430440425435Low
05/01/2020Pounds500510500510Low
05/01/2020Dollar435450435450Low
05/01/2020Euro430445430445Low
4/30/2020Pounds500510500510Low
4/30/2020Dollar435450435450Low
4/30/2020Euro430445430445Low
4/29/2020Pounds500520500520Low
4/29/2020Dollar440460440460Low
4/29/2020Euro450465450465Low
4/28/2020Pounds495510500520Low
4/28/2020Dollar430450440460Low
4/28/2020Euro435450435450Low
4/27/2020Pounds495510495510Low
4/27/2020Dollar430450430450Low
4/27/2020Euro435450435450Low
4/24/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/24/2020Dollar428450428450Low
4/24/2020Euro430440430440Low
4/23/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/23/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/23/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/22/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/22/2020Dollar420425420430Low
4/22/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/21/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/21/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/21/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/20/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/20/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/20/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/17/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/17/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/17/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/16/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/16/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/16/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/15/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/15/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/15/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/14/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/14/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/14/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/13/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/13/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/13/2020Euro425435425435Low
04/10/2020Pounds490505490505Low
04/10/2020Dollar420430420430Low
04/10/2020Euro425435425435Low
04/09/2020Pounds490505490505Low
04/09/2020Dollar420430420430Low
04/09/2020Euro425435425435Low
04/08/2020Pounds490500490500Low
04/08/2020Dollar420430420430Low
04/08/2020Euro425435425435Low
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28/06/2019Pounds457460457462Low
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15/05/2019Pounds470475470475Low
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13/05/2019Pounds470475470475Low
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29/04/2019Pounds470475470475Low
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26/04/2019Pounds470475470475Low
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23/04/2019Euro390402400405Low
22/04/2019Pounds472476472476Low
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19/04/2019Pounds467471470475Low
19/04/2019Dollar355360357360Low
19/04/2019Euro395400402406Low
18/04/2019Pounds470475470475Low
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18/04/2019Euro402406402406Low
17/04/2019Pounds470475470475Low
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17/04/2019Euro402406402406Low
16/04/2019Pounds465470470475Low
16/04/2019Dollar360365357360Low
16/04/2019Euro400405402405Low

Data is collated from various black market dealers on the mainland and island parts of Lagos State where forex is sold. The price quoted daily on this page represents the average price obtained by our Research Team. Our prices are a guide and could be slightly different from the price you get when you eventually decide to buy or sell. This is a daily tracker and updated close of business. See table below for parallel market exchange rate dating to 2019.

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Currencies

Why exchange rate disparity remains high despite CBN’s intervention

Despite the intervention measures by the CBN, why does the disparity between the official and black-market rates remain high?

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Why exchange rate disparity remains high despite CBN’s intervention

The Nigerian economy has been faced with serious foreign exchange crisis since the first quarter of the year, with severe pressure on the nation’s foreign exchange market and external reserve. The local currency is under the grip of tough external pressure, characterized by internal foreign exchange shortages and consistently high black-market rates. This has led to a high disparity between the official exchange rate and black-market rate.

The undesired situation is attributable to the crash in crude oil prices, triggered by the coronavirus pandemic that has impacted negatively on the global economy. The plunging oil prices have increased the pressure on the naira, as about 90% of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings is from crude oil exports.

READ: Nigerian’s should expect “a significant devaluation” to N550/$1 – Goldman Sachs

Bank of Africa analysts, Rukayat Yusuf and Andrew MacFarlane, in its Global Bank’s latest report on Nigeria’s forex unification and shortages, said that Nigeria’s current foreign exchange pressure is likely to gain momentum in 2021, as the economy and imports recovery will trigger a future adjustment of the nation’s currency to N430/$1 next year.

Recall that despite several initial denials by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in response to the devastating impact of the coronavirus pandemic and oil shocks; the apex bank on March 20, 2020, devalued the exchange rate from N307/$1 to N360/$1. This was followed with the suspension of sales of foreign currency to the Bureau De Change operators on March 27, 2020, in the face of depleting external reserves.

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READ: CBN injects fresh $51.8m into FX Markets

In a move viewed as attempts by the CBN to unify the exchange rate, the apex bank further devalued the naira on August 6, 2020, from N360/$1 to N380/$1 on the official window and closed the gap with the parallel market – which is the unofficial market. The huge exchange rate gap has made round-tripping very lucrative and encouraged hoarding amongst forex dealers.

Goldman Sachs analysts had earlier predicted that the exchange rate will dip to N500 to $1 in the face of rising inflation and declining external reserves. The wide gap between the official and unofficial rates is seen by analysts as an indication of increasing pressure on the forex market and dollar shortages, which the CBN is trying to contain with several policies targeted at reducing the demand for the greenback, conserve the scarce foreign exchange, and help boost dollar supply in the market.

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READ: CBN announces resumption of sales of forex to BDC

Some of these policies include:

  • Resumption of sales of dollars to the Bureau De Change Operators and mandating them to sell at not more than N386 to a dollar.
  • Removal of third parties from buying forex routed through Form M.
  • Clampdown on exporters who refuse to repatriate their export proceeds to Nigeria.
  • Restriction on forex allocation to importers of maize by the Deposit Money Banks (DMBs).

READ: Nigeria’s inflation rate hits 13.71% as food prices soar

However, despite some of these measures by the CBN, the disparity between the official and black-market rates still remain as high as almost N70. So, the question is why the huge gap? Especially, with the resumption of dollar sales to the BDCs.

READ: COVID-19: How CBN policies helped prevent the collapse of the Nigerian economy – Oscar Onyema

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Some analysts and stakeholders have complained that the measures are hurting business operations and pushed more demands to the parallel market. They believe it has encouraged hoarding and speculations to continue thriving; thereby, making it difficult to reduce the black-market rate.

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What they are saying

While expressing his view on why the exchange rate disparity is still high, despite the resumption of dollar sales to BDCs; the President of Association of Bureau De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadebe, said the impact of the resumption of sales of foreign exchange to BDCs is expected to be gradual.

READ: Naira gains across the forex markets as dollar supply rises sharply by 201%

Gwadebe said, “Firstly, the impact is gradual. You know there was a time when the dollar reached N500/$1. N474, N480 to a dollar was when there were other interventions in the market. As soon as the news of the resumption of sales to Bureau De Change broke, we witnessed the dollar going for as low as N420, N430 to a dollar. However, after taking off, the rate is now N460, which is the parallel market rate.

“Don’t forget there is a huge backlog and every other buyer – authorized or unauthorized, queued in the parallel market. So, the pressure is on the parallel market from manufacturers and existing investors. In fact, the most unfortunate behavior is hoarding and speculation.’’

READ: Ethereum whales move over $50 million of Ether to Uniswap

The ABCON President noted that people hoard and speculate when liquidity is low in the retail sector of the market. He pointed out that, although the liquidity is gradual, the rebound is expected to continue gradually.

Gwadebe said the role of the BDCs is to provide liquidity in the retail end of the market, which is what the CBN is empowering the BDCs to do and a key reason the rate has improved from the record high of about N480/$1.

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He noted that the resumption of sales of dollars to BDCs is discouraging frivolous demands, adding liquidity into the system, aiding return of confidence and stability in the market.

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He reiterated that the BDCs remain the only threat to hoarding and speculation, while expressing satisfaction that the reserve is growing and will increase the confidence of investors.

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Currencies

U.S dollar up, U.S GDP expands at record 33.1%

Investors selling out other G7 currencies and increasing their buying pressure on the U.S dollar.

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The US dollar remains king, U.S dollar gains against major currencies, America threatens China with sanctions., U.S dollar slumps against major currencies, investors become optimistic about global demand, U.S Dollar Stands Firm, Foreign Exchange Traders Remain Neutral 

The world’s safe-haven currency, the U.S dollar is enjoying a robust trading session, amid impressive data coming from the world’s largest economy, as investors are selling out other G7 currencies and increasing their buying pressure on the U.S dollar.

READ: U.S dollar drops, low U.S interest rates expected to persist for long

What we know

At the time of writing, the U.S dollar index – used to track the U.S dollar strength against 6 major currencies was up by 0.6%.

The world’s largest economy bounced incredibly well with a record – yet temporary surge of growth in Q3, as companies restarted and stimulus cash triggered more consumer spending – reversing fears coming from some quarters that the U.S economy was on the brink of collapsing amid surging COVID-19 crisis.

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  • U.S GDP grew 7.4% from the prior period, a quarterly rise that equals an annualized pace of 33.1%, as seen from the U.S Commerce Department’s initial estimate released today.
  • The data beat leading economists’ estimates for a 32% increase, which was already well above prediction three months ago for an 18% surge. Personal spending fueled the surge in growth, climbing an annualized 40.7% – also a record, while business investment and housing also posted strong increases.

READ: Credit to Nigerian economy falls to N38.67 trillion

Quick fact

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The US Dollar Index tracks the American dollar against other major currencies such as the Japanese Yen, British Pound Sterling, Swedish Krona, the Euro, and more.

Individuals hoping to meet foreign exchange payment obligations, via dollar transactions to European countries, and Japan, would need fewer US dollars in meeting such obligations.

READ: Investors on rampage as Ethereum posts 10.3% gain

What they are saying

Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, also spoke on key issues prevailing in the safe-haven currency market

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“The US dollar is trading a bit firmer today as European and US equities fall on concerns over rising COVID-19 cases on both sides of the Atlantic.

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“But it’s the laundry list of worries, be it pre-election caution, US Congress failure to launch (stimulus) or France and Germany lockdown concerns, risk aversion demand for the greenback is nothing new.

“Under these conditions, the US dollar tends to shine bright as the cleanest shirt in that dirty laundry list.”

Why the US dollar rallies higher

In spite of the world’s largest economy having a surge in COVID-19 caseloads, forex traders believe that the US recent data has now shown that the world’s largest economy is in good shape and recent price action showed an oversold signal in the past few days.

This means that any time the value of the safe-haven currency drops below the 93.00 support level, traders increase their long positions.

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