Commodities
Comparing the 2016 oil price crash to 2020 oil price crash
OPEC’s policies were truly influenced by the 2014 fall in price.
In 2016, low prices caused a fall in global oil production and these cuts saw oil prices bounce back to $105 per barrel by December 2016. The oil price decline was generally suffered by customers in consuming nations. For instance, in China and India-have exploited the decrease to lessen appropriations on oil expenditure and in this manner reinforce their financial positions as typically done when prices crash.
Lagging development in rising economic powers, above all in China prompted a sharp drop in nearly all stock prices no matter how you look at it.
OPEC’s policies were truly influenced by the 2014 fall in price. Shale creation denied OPEC of a huge segment of its market power, constraining OPEC to help different producers to keep costs up after Saudi Arabia viably announced destruction in the price war in 2016.
READ: Crude oil prices drop, major oil powers to ease record oil supply curbs
OPEC made sure about a cut in its oil production from 33.8million barrels a day to 32.5million b/d with an end goal to prop up costs. Oil prices had fallen by the greater part since mid 2014 because of worldwide oversupply and blasting US shale creation.
The cost of oil plummeted from an apex of $115 per barrel in June 2014 to near $35 toward the end of February 2016. Brent exchanged for above $100 a barrel for quite a while until 2014 dropping to nearly $26 in 2016.
Brent unrefined costs were up over 8percent as the arrangements were reported, exchanging around $50.12 a barrel while WTI was likewise up over 8percent and exchanging at roughly $49.97 a barrel.
READ MORE: OPEC+ asks Committee to monitor Nigeria, others over extended oil production cuts
2020 Oil price war
The price war in 2020 was activated by a collapse in discussions between the OPEC and Russia over proposed oil production cuts amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. The price war led to significant circumstances on the oil economy which was the energy equivalent of the 2008 financial crash.
Towards the beginning of March, Russia and OPEC failed to agree on how their arrangement to cut oil productivity should work. OPEC needed to go forward with the cuts while Moscow proposed analyzing the effect of the coronavirus on the economy before making cut. This precautionary move led to the collapse in negotiations between other OPEC members.
READ ALSO: Nigeria generates over N1.2 trillion oil revenue in 3 months, up by 44.1%
OPEC suggested extra production cuts of 1.5million barrels every day beginning in April and reaching out until the year’s end. Russia dismissed these extra cuts. Also, in 2020, due to the worldwide Coronavirus pandemic and COVID-19 lockdowns, a negative oil price of $37.63/bbl. for May’s WTI contract accompanied storage tankers in the U.S.
The 2014-2016 oil price crash happened step by step, through unchecked supply increases and Shale Creation.
2020’s crash occurred in only half a month after collapse in discussions. Political and diplomatic measures are needed to avoid future crashes and to support rebalancing of the oil economy.
Commodities
Oil prices fall under pressure over rising number of COVID-19 cases in China
Brent crude was down by 0.24% to trade at $55.12 barrel, and WTI futures inched down by 0.10% to $52.22 a barrel.
Oil prices drifted lower at the first trading session in London, recording a second consecutive trading session of losses, as the ever-rising number of COVID-19 cases, particularly in China, raise energy demand fears.
What you should know: At the time of writing this report, Brent crude was down by 0.24% to trade at $55.12 barrel, and West Texas Intermediate futures inched down by 0.10% to $52.22 a barrel.
China’s National Health Commission revealed that the world’s largest importer of oil recorded 124 cases on Jan. 24, up from 80 earlier, which is the worst wave of new COVID-19 infections seen since March 2020.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, spoke on current fundamentals weighing on oil prices, at least for the near term. In addition, he spoke on how the COVID-19 pandemic seemed to distort the bullish rally.
“The Lunar New Year headline heebie-jeebies did a number on oil prices into weeks end. Yet after hitting an intraday low US$54.48 per barrel, Brent crude managed to close above US$55 despite the clear demand impacts of lockdowns in Europe and additional measures in China.
The enormous question mark remains around demand and supply.
- The street uniformly downgraded Q1 21 market in the world ex-China due to clear demand impacts of lockdowns in Europe to start the year. But last week it was back to the downward demand revision drawing board.
- More worryingly, however, since Asia has been the backbone of physical crude oil demand, this time it was to down-ballot China consumption as lockdowns spread in the country just weeks ahead of the Lunar New Year travel surge.”
What to expect: Still, the one million barrels per day of additional Saudi curbs over February and March should alleviate the currently projected level of attrition in global demand recovery without much impact on the path of OECD inventory draws.
Commodities
Oil prices drop amid fears on energy demand softening
West Texas Intermediate, lost 1.6%, at $52.27 per barrel. It was WTI’s worst daily plunge slide since last Friday when it fell 2.2%.
Oil prices fell their most in a week after the first U.S. crude build in six weeks on the fear that the world’s largest economy might distort energy demand/supply rebalancing.
What you must know: U.S based oil contract, West Texas Intermediate, lost 1.6%, at $52.27 per barrel. It was WTI’s worst daily plunge since last Friday when it fell 2.2%.
READ: Non-oil sector is critical to Nigeria’s economic recovery in 2021 – Cordros Capital
- But for the week itself, the U.S. crude contract lost about 0.2%.
- British based Brent, the global benchmark for crude, settled 1.4%, at $56.10.
- The gain in crude oil inventories coincided with President Joe Biden’s recent statements calling on its citizens for tough days ahead from the Covid-19, which could kill up to about half a million Americans.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, gave valid insights on the effect COVID-19 and other macros have on oil prices.
READ: FIRS hits 98% of target as it collects N4.95 trillion for 2020 fiscal year
“Oil prices look a tad vulnerable to potential profit-taking after US crude stockpile bearishly rose 2.56 million against consensus draw. Simultaneously, the near-term China crude demand forecast looks high and susceptible to revision lower as lockdown spread in the country ahead of the Lunar New Year
.“While oil traders see through longer lockdowns on the premise that vaccinations will quickly lead us out of the pandemic, COVID mobility clampdowns still hurt the very near-term view.
READ: Bitcoin, Gold, leading Stocks tumble on strong U.S dollar
“And since calls for a commodity supercycle have been many after the November vaccine turnaround, open interest in Brent and WTI has increased hugely, suggesting that the market remains very susceptible to any potential bearish headlines big or small, from a positioning perspective alone.”
What to expect: OPEC production at the moment remains well below the level required to meet anticipated demand. It should continue to drive a reduction in oil inventories as the global economy gradually recovers.
Commodities
Gold prices pull back after hitting highest levels in 2 weeks
Spot gold was down by 0.4% to trade at $1,862 per ounce after hitting its highest since Jan. 8 at $1,874.50 earlier in the session.
Gold prices pulled back a little of its gains recorded on Thursday, as it traded near its highest level in nearly two weeks.
The greenback’s slight rebound at Asia’s trading session on Friday dented the precious metal’s upsides.
Gold prices have been rallying high on reports that President Joe Biden’s administration would push for more quantitative easing programs in order to support the world’s biggest economy.
READ: Gold rebounds strongly amid COVID-19 crisis
At the time of drafting this report, Spot gold was down by 0.4% to trade at $1,862 per ounce after hitting its highest since Jan. 8 at $1,874.50 earlier in the session.
What you must know: It’s key to note that the precious metal typically moves in the opposite direction from global stock markets, especially the American and European stock markets.
- Humans are emotionally and physically drawn to gold. It provides a significant store of value.
- Global Investors buy gold mainly to hedge against inflation.
READ: Gold on a grand slam win, gains $40 per ounce
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, spoke on the recent price movements prevailing at the precious market;
“Gold bears have entered a temporary state of hibernation. The yellow metal seems to be past the lows for the month as the current ” everything but the kitchen sink ” policy backdrop and FX tailwinds for precious metals remain favorable.
READ: Gold rockets above $1850 as it continues 9-year high
“Resistance lies at the 100-day moving average at $1884. But the market needs a few more ounces of policy conviction for a break higher. Treasury yields should dictate the direction of bullion and a rally could quickly ensue if further inflation expectations kick in.”
Bottom line: The yellow metal bugs are still in play, at least for the slightly longer horizon, given that global central banks are likely to stay dovish for an extended period of time.
