The chart above is V-Shaped!

Nigeria’s Bureau of Statistics revealed on Tuesday that Nigeria reported a real GDP Growth rate of 0.11% for the fourth quarter of 2020, the first time following three consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth rate.

Why this matters

• A V-shaped recovery means the economy got out of a recession faster than expected.
• Several analysts had various predictions on what Nigeria’s economic recovery chart might look like. The predictions were between U, V, L, or W, shaped.
• This was also the headline of the Nairametrics Q3 2020 Economic Outlook Webinar where most of our panelists settled for a U-shaped recovery.
• Most analysts had opined that Nigeria’s GDP Growth rate will contract again in the 4th quarter of 2020 before eeking our growth in the first quarter of 2021.
• However, the latest GDP number indicates a GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter thus a V-shaped recovery.

At 0.11%, this is the slowest GDP Growth rate Nigeria has recorded since the GDP was rebased in 2011. In the second quarter of 2017 when Nigeria also exited a recession, the GDP Growth rate was 0.72% and was considered relatively tepid at the time.

It appears Nigerians are in for good times in the new year, as the price of bags of local and foreign rice, onions, pepper, tomatoes, amongst others recorded a significant drop in price.

This is according to the latest market survey, carried out by Nairalytics Research – the research arm of Nairametrics.

The survey revealed that the price of a 50kg bag of locally produced rice dipped by 6.4% from an average of N25,375 recorded in December to an average of N23,750 while a bag of foreign rice of the same size now sells for an average of N24,500 as against an initial average of N26,125.

READ: Quality of local rice improves as food prices drop across major markets 

Also, the price of a bag of dry onions dropped by 77.5% to sell for an average of N21,500 compared to an initial average of N95,500 while the price of new onions crashed by 74.6% to sell for an average of 16,500.

This report contains information on items that witnessed price increase, price decrease, as well as information on special markets and insights.

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Items that witnessed price increase

• A big bag of melon that was sold for an average of N43,500 in December now sells for an average of N45,000. This represents an increase of 3.45% in three weeks.
• A nylon of crayfish now sells for an average of N14,250, representing an increase of 9.6% compared to an initial average of N13,000.
• The price of a big tuber of yam spiked by 31.2% to sell for an average of N1,000 as against an initial average of N763.
• Also, a medium-sized tuber of yam now sells for an average of N588, indicating an increase of 11.9% compared to an initial average of N525.
• A big basket of sweet potatoes that was sold for an initial average of N5,500, witnessed an increase of 9.1% to sell for an average of N6,000.
• The price of a small-sized basket increased by 3.6% to sell for an average of N727 from an initial average of N700.
• Also, a big basket of Irish potatoes now sells for an average of 25,000 as against an initial average of N20,000. This represents an increase of 25% in three weeks.

READ: FG warns local rice dealers to desist from price hike

Items that witnessed price decrease

• A big basket of round shaped tomatoes that was sold for an average of N15,000 in December, now sells for an average of N6,500. This represents a price decrease of 56.7% in three weeks.
• Also, the price of a medium-sized basket of round shaped tomatoes reduced by 64.7% to sell for an average of N3,000 as against an initial average of N8,500.
• A big bag of pepper now sells for an average of N7,750. This is 61.3% lower than an average of N20,000 recorded in December while a medium-sized bag currently sells for an average of N3,750 as opposed to an initial average of N10,000.
• A 50kg bag of brown beans currently sells for an average of N30,000, representing a 27.7% decline in price compared to an initial average of N41,500.
• The price of a 10kg bag of Mama Gold rice dipped by 8.3% to sell for an average of N4,400 compared to an initial average of N4,800.
• Also, a 50kg bag of Royal Stallion rice that was initially sold for an average of N26,125 now sells for an average of N24,500 while Mama Gold rice of the same size sells for an average of N24,875 as against an initial average of 26,125.
• The price of a carton of full chicken recorded a marginal decrease of 0.29% to sell for an average of N14,125 compared to an initial average of N14,167.
• A big bag of Bush mango seeds (Ogbono) that was sold for an average of N115,000 during Christmas festivity, now sells for an average of N105,000. This represents a price decrease of 8.7%.

READ: Why onion has become the “new gold” in Nigeria

Items that maintained initial prices

• A crate of eggs continues to sell for an average of N1,200, the same as recorded in December.
• A big bag of yellow maize is still sold for an average of N20,167, while a bag of white maize costs an average of N20,000.
• A bag of yellow maize sells for an average of N23,333, the same as recorded in December, while white maize of the same size still sells for an average of N23,167.
• A 50kg bag of Honey well and Mama Gold flour sells for N13,950 and N13,850 respectively, while a bag of Dangote flour sells for an average of N13,750.
• Horse fish (Kote) and Titus fish still sell for an average of N613 and 638 respectively across markets in Lagos.
• A 50kg bag of garri (Ijebu) still sells for an average of N14,375, while white and yellow garri sell for an average of N10,750 and N11,125 respectively.
• Amongst the list of food items that maintained their initial prices include: noodles, beverages, cocoa drinks, sugar, water, and juice.
• A 12.5kg cylinder of cooking gas is filled for an average of N3,975, while a 5kg cylinder is filled for an average of N1,750.

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Special markets/items

• Several customers were sighted at Mile-12 market negotiating and transacting with traders at different units of the market as the prices of most food items recorded a significant decline in price compared to the just-concluded year.
• In an interview with a tomato seller at Mushin market, Mr. Bala, explained that the decline in the price of tomatoes is due to seasonal fluctuations and increased supply of the food item.
• He stated that there has been a huge amount of harvest during this period, which has caused an increased supply of tomatoes coming from the north, and as a result driving the price of the commodity downwards. He however mentioned that oval-shaped tomatoes are not currently in the market, only round-shaped tomatoes were harvested and supplied to the market.
• The price of foreign rice has continued to witness a significant decrease in the past four weeks, largely due to the reopening of some land borders across the country. Also, the price of locally produced rice trickled down last week due to the new influx of foreign rice.
• According to our correspondent at Daleko market, Mrs. Oladayo, she explained that foreign-made rice is of two types for each of the brands, long and short. A 50kg of the long grain of rice sells for an average of N24,000 in the market, while the bag of short grains sells for an average of N24,000.
• Although, a 50kg bag of Big Bull rice sells for an of N24,000 some Nigerian made rice are now selling for as low as N18,000 and N17,000. She however warned that some of these brands are quite stony. For example, Zainab rice sells for an average of N17,000 at Daleko market.

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Market insights

• In an interactive session with an Onion seller at Mile-12 market, it was revealed that the reason for the significant nosedive in the price of onions was due to bountiful harvest towards the end of December.
• According to Muhammed, he said this is a period for onion harvest and it is only normal for the price to decline, although it seemed like a significant decline due to the irregular hike witnessed in the price of onions last year as a result of some string of events, such as insecurity, lack of harvest, etc.
• He further mentioned that the reduction in the price of onions is a very positive development for the year, considering the hardship experienced by many Nigerians during the past year.
• “We are happy that the price of onions and other food items have dropped in recent times and we hope it continues this way, because the lesser the price, the more customers are likely to buy,” He added.
• In a bid to understand the cause of the increase in the price of potatoes, Mr. Audu explained to Nairalytics that the price of potatoes increased due to the effect of seasonal fluctuations.

About Nairametrics Food Price Survey

Nairametrics Food Price Watch is a bi-weekly Household Market Survey that covers the prices of major food items in Nigeria, with emphasis on five major markets in Lagos – Mushin market, Daleko market, Oyingbo market, Idi-Oro market, and Mile 12 market.