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Currencies

After hitting a 3-year low during the week, Naira stabilizes as traders wonder what next

The CBN still continues to warn against currency speculators who patronize the black market.

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Naira drops again at the black market as exchange rate unification plans intensify, Naira falls against the dollar across forex markets as liquidity drops by 43% , Naira falls big at the black market as demand pressure persists

The exchange rate between the naira and dollar at the I&E remained stable on Friday, closing at N386 to a dollar. This was the same rate that was recorded on Thursday as traders mulled over reports that the CBN had adjusted the exchange rate at the SMIS window. There was also stability with the opening indicative rate as it recorded N386.86 to a dollar on Friday. This was the same rate that was achieved the previous day.    

At the black market where forex is traded unofficially, the naira also remained stable as it closed at N461 to a dollar on Friday which was the same rate that it exchanged on Thursday. The exchange rate at the beginning of the week was N460 to a dollar. By crossing N460, the exchange rate has broken a psychological ceiling going past N460 for the first time since 2017.    

Nigeria continues to maintain multiple exchange rates comprising the CBN official rate, the BDC rates, and the NAFEX (I&E window). Nairametrics reported last week that the government has set plans in motion to unify the multiple exchange rates in line with requirements from the World Bank. Nigeria is seeking a world bank loan of up to $3 billion.  

Forex Turnover 

Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window recorded a decline on Friday, July 3, 2020, as it dropped by 48.7% day on day, a reversal from the huge growth that it achieved on Thursday at the foreign exchange market. This is according to data from the FMDQOTC, an exchange where forex is traded by foreign investors and exporters.    

According to the data tracked by Nairametrics, forex turnover decreased from $204.90 million on Thursday, July 2, 2020, to $105.05 million on Friday, July 3, 2020, representing a 48.7% decline on a day-to-day basis. Despite falling short of the over $200 million trading volume that was achieved the previous day and in January, it is still a decent turnover compared to the low trading volumes recently. 

GTBank 728 x 90

This was still enough to provide trading boost to help reduce the pressure and stabilize the market.   

According to a July 2020 report from Moody’s, the foreign currency funding gap for Nigerian banks is expected to rise to $5 billion due to the current low oil prices, volatile forex inflows and lower diaspora remittances amid the coronavirus pandemic. These challenges are threatening to renew the foreign currency liquidity pressures that hit Nigerian banks during the previous oil crisis in 2016-2017.  

The report also indicated that dollar shortages are expected to persist over the next 12-18 months if low oil prices continue thereby renewing the forex liquidity crisis that led to severe rationing of dollar and ban on importation of some items during the last oil price crash in 2015-2017.  

Forex Liquidity Issues 

Despite a decent turnover recorded on Friday and the stability of the naira at the I&E window and the black market, the volatility and uncertainty of the forex market still persist due to accumulated demand and liquidity shortages across markets.  The rise in demand and contrasting drop in supply has called for another round of devaluation, which the CBN has insisted it has plans to implement. 

The CBN on Friday adjusted the naira at the retail forex auction from N360 to a dollar to N380 to a dollar in a move that most analysts see as part of the plans to unify the exchange rate of the Naira. A devaluation last occurred in March. The apex bank wants to unify the exchange rate to conserve the dwindling external reserves which has been hard hit by demand by ever-increasing importers and the foreign investors wishing the exit. This current move by the CBN has moved the retail auction for importers and individuals, which is the official rate closer to the over-the counter-spot for investors and exporters.Nairametrics spoke to some traders who are still reviewing what the latest move by the CBN could mean on the future price of forex. Whilst some believe this is a major step towards reunification others believe the real test of the value of the exchange rate could be when the economy finally opens. For now, projection is all speculation, one trader informs Nairametrics.    

The CBN still continues to warn against currency speculators who patronize the black market, thus widening the gap between it and the I&E window. The CBN maintains that the perceived demand cannot be substantiated following the drop in economic activities induced by the COVID-19 pandemic suggest demand should be low due to travel restrictions and drop-in economic activities.    

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The further decline in liquidity could further fuel speculations in the black market where the exchange rate has traded at a premium of N60+ over the last few weeks. The CBN claims most of the demand being cited is not represented by any official documentation and that it has informed foreign investors with genuine forex demand to be “patient” and that they will get their forex.   

 

 

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Chike Olisah is a graduate of accountancy with over 15 years working experience in the financial service sector. He has worked in research and marketing departments of three top commercial banks. Chike is a senior member of the Nairametrics Editorial Team. You may contact him via his email- [email protected]

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Currencies

Daily Parallel Market exchange rate – ₦475/$1

The US dollar stands at ₦475/US$1 in the parallel market

Published

on

Forex, NIGERIA: Daily Parallel Market, Exchange Rate

The exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar as of Friday, August 14th 2020 stands at 475/US$1 in the parallel market. The exchange rate also closed at 475/US$1 on Thursday 13th August 2020.

  • Naira:475
  • Dollar: $1
  • Date: August 14th, 2020

The exchange rate between the naira and the British pound sterling stands at  ₦580/₤1 on Friday 14th August as against ₦575/₤1 recorded on Thursday 13th August 2020.

  • Naira: ₦575
  • Pounds Sterling: ₤1
  • Date: August 14th, 2020

Explore Economic Research Data From Nairametrics on Nairalytics

The exchange rate between the naira and the European euro stands at ₦535/€1 on Friday 14th August 2020. The exchange rate closed at ₦530/€1 on Thursday 13th August 2020.

  • Naira: ₦535
  • Euro: €1
  • Date: August 14th, 2020

Activity: USD currently sells for an average of 475/US$1 in the parallel market

GTBank 728 x 90

READ ALSO: The risk of buying Forex at black market rate of N460/$1 

DateCurrencyBuy(AM)Sell(AM)Buy(PM)Sell(PM)Volatility
8/14/2020Dollar470475
8/14/2020Pounds570580
8/14/2020Euro525535
8/13/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/13/2020Pounds570575565575Low
8/13/2020Euro525530520530Low
8/12/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/12/2020Pounds570575570575Low
8/12/2020Euro520530520530Low
8/11/2020Dollar477485477485Low
8/11/2020Pounds572584572584Low
8/11/2020Euro510523520535Low
8/10/2020Dollar477485477485Low
8/10/2020Pounds572584572584Low
8/10/2020Euro510523520535High
8/7/2020Dollar475486475486Low
8/7/2020Pounds578585578585Low
8/7/2020Euro536550536550Low
8/6/2020Dollar470480475486Low
8/6/2020Pounds575587578585Low
8/6/2020Euro534545536550Low
8/5/2020Dollar465475473483Low
8/5/2020Pounds570580575587Low
8/5/2020Euro525540532545Low
8/4/2020Dollar470480470480Low
8/4/2020Pounds560570560570Low
8/4/2020Euro520530520530Low
8/3/2020Dollar470480470480Low
8/3/2020Pounds560570560570Low
8/3/2020Euro520530520530Low
7/31/2020Dollar470480470485High
7/31/2020Pounds570582575585Low
7/31/2020Euro500520505520Low
7/30/2020Dollar470490470485High
7/30/2020Pounds550570550580High
7/30/2020Euro495520500525High
7/29/2020Dollar468475467475Low
7/29/2020Pounds575585580590Low
7/29/2020Euro530540530545Low
7/28/2020Dollar469475467475Low
7/28/2020Pounds575593580595Low
7/28/2020Euro550560540550Low
7/27/2020Dollar465473466473Low
7/27/2020Pounds570580575583Low
7/27/2020Euro510520515530Low
7/24/2020Dollar465472464472Low
7/24/2020Pounds570580572582Low
7/24/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/23/2020Dollar460472465472Low
7/23/2020Pounds565575565580Low
7/23/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/22/2020Dollar465472465472Low
7/22/2020Pounds565575560578Low
7/22/2020Euro510525510528Low
7/21/2020Dollar461472462472Low
7/21/2020Pounds560573560575Low
7/21/2020Euro498515500520Low
7/20/2020Dollar460473462473Low
7/20/2020Pounds550570555575Low
7/20/2020Euro495505500510Low
7/17/2020Dollar462470460470Low
7/17/2020Pounds560570558570Low
7/17/2020Euro490500490500Low
7/16/2020Dollar460470460470Low
7/16/2020Pounds558565560570Low
7/16/2020Euro485495485499Low
7/15/2020Dollar455465455470Low
7/15/2020Pounds560565558570Low
7/15/2020Euro485495488498Low
7/14/2020Dollar448462455470Low
7/14/2020Pounds540550557570Low
7/14/2020Euro485495489498Low
7/13/2020Dollar450460448462Low
7/13/2020Pounds540550540550Low
7/13/2020Euro485495485495Low
7/10/2020Dollar453460458465Low
7/10/2020Pounds520525550555High
7/10/2020Euro465467510520High
7/9/2020Dollar455461455463Low
7/9/2020Pounds550558550562Low
7/9/2020Euro495504498505Low
7/8/2020Dollar455461455461Low
7/8/2020Pounds550558550558Low
7/8/2020Euro495504495504Low
7/7/2020Dollar455461455461Low
7/7/2020Pounds550558550558Low
7/7/2020Euro495502495502Low
7/6/2020Dollar455462455461Low
7/6/2020Pounds550562547555Low
7/6/2020Euro495502496502Low
7/3/2020Dollar455462454461Low
7/3/2020Pounds548560550560Low
7/3/2020Euro495505495502Low
7/2/2020Dollar455462454461Low
7/2/2020Pounds548560550560Low
7/2/2020Euro495505495502Low
7/1/2020Dollar455462455462Low
7/1/2020Pounds548560548560Low
7/1/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/30/2020Dollar452460452460Low
6/30/2020Pounds547560547560Low
6/30/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/29/2020Dollar450460450460Low
6/29/2020Pounds547560547560Low
6/29/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/26/2020Dollar452457452460Low
6/26/2020Pounds547557547560Low
6/26/2020Euro490498490502Low
6/25/2020Dollar452457450455Low
6/25/2020Pounds547557547560Low
6/25/2020Euro490498490499Low
6/24/2020Dollar450460450455Low
6/24/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/24/2020Euro490495488498Low
6/23/2020Dollar450460445455Low
6/23/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/23/2020Euro490495490495Low
6/22/2020Dollar450455450455Low
6/22/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/22/2020Euro488498488498Low
6/19/2020Dollar445455445455Low
6/19/2020Pounds540553540553Low
6/19/2020Euro480490480490Low
6/18/2020Dollar445452445452Low
6/18/2020Pounds537550537550Low
6/18/2020Euro475490475490Low
6/17/2020Dollar445452445452Low
6/17/2020Pounds540553537550Low
6/17/2020Euro475490475490Low
6/16/2020Dollar440450445452Low
6/16/2020Pounds540550540553Low
6/16/2020Euro475485475490Low
6/15/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/15/2020Pounds540550540550Low
6/15/2020Euro475485475485Low
6/12/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/12/2020Pounds538550538550Low
6/12/2020Euro470485470485Low
6/11/2020Pounds538550538550Low
6/11/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/11/2020Euro470485470485Low
6/10/2020Pounds538550540553Low
6/10/2020Dollar440450445452Low
6/10/2020Euro470485475490Low
6/9/2020Pounds538550540550Low
6/9/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/9/2020Euro470485475485Low
6/8/2020Pounds540550540550Low
6/8/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/8/2020Euro475485475485Low
6/5/2020Pounds535545535545Low
6/5/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/5/2020Euro460472460472Low
6/4/2020Pounds530543530543Low
6/4/2020Dollar440447440447Low
6/4/2020Euro460470460470Low
6/3/2020Pounds530540530540Low
6/3/2020Dollar440445440445Low
6/3/2020Euro460470460470Low
6/2/2020Pounds535545535545Low
6/2/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/2/2020Euro460472460472Low
6/1/2020Pounds530543530543Low
6/1/2020Dollar440447440447Low
6/1/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/29/2020Pounds530540530540Low
5/29/2020Dollar440445440445Low
5/29/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/28/2020Pounds535545535545Low
5/28/2020Dollar440450440450Low
5/28/2020Euro460472460472Low
5/27/2020Pounds530543530543Low
5/27/2020Dollar440447440447Low
5/27/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/26/2020Pounds530540530540Low
5/26/2020Dollar440445440445Low
5/26/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/25/2020Pounds535545535545Low
5/25/2020Dollar440450440450Low
5/25/2020Euro460472460472Low
5/22/2020Pounds530543530543Low
5/22/2020Dollar440447440447Low
5/22/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/21/2020Pounds530545530545Low
5/21/2020Dollar450460450460Low
5/21/2020Euro460470460470Low
5/20/2020Pounds530550530550Low
5/20/2020Dollar445460445460Low
5/20/2020Euro450470450470Low
5/19/2020Pounds528540528540Low
5/19/2020Dollar445460445460Low
5/19/2020Euro450465450465Low
5/18/2020Pounds528540528540Low
5/18/2020Dollar445460445460Low
5/18/2020Euro450465450465Low
5/15/2020Pounds530540525535Low
5/15/2020Dollar435450440455Low
5/15/2020Euro450460450465Low
5/14/2020Pounds530540530540Low
5/14/2020Dollar435450435450Low
5/14/2020Euro450460450460Low
5/13/2020Pounds525535525535Low
5/13/2020Dollar430450430450Low
5/13/2020Euro440455440455Low
5/12/2020Pounds525535525535Low
5/12/2020Dollar435450435450Low
5/12/2020Euro445455445455Low
5/11/2020Pounds510530525535Low
5/11/2020Dollar430445435445Low
5/11/2020Euro440450445455Low
5/8/2020Pounds510530510530Low
5/8/2020Dollar425437430445Low
5/8/2020Euro425440440450Low
5/7/2020Pounds510530510530Low
5/7/2020Dollar425437425437Low
5/7/2020Euro425440425440Low
5/6/2020Pounds510520510520Low
5/6/2020Dollar425437425437Low
5/6/2020Euro430450430450Low
5/5/2020Pounds510525510525Low
5/5/2020Dollar410430420430Low
5/5/2020Euro425435425435Low
5/4/2020Pounds500510510525Low
5/4/2020Dollar435450410430Low
5/4/2020Euro430440425435Low
5/1/2020Pounds500510500510Low
5/1/2020Dollar435450435450Low
5/1/2020Euro430445430445Low
4/30/2020Pounds500510500510Low
4/30/2020Dollar435450435450Low
4/30/2020Euro430445430445Low
4/29/2020Pounds500520500520Low
4/29/2020Dollar440460440460Low
4/29/2020Euro450465450465Low
4/28/2020Pounds495510500520Low
4/28/2020Dollar430450440460Low
4/28/2020Euro435450435450Low
4/27/2020Pounds495510495510Low
4/27/2020Dollar430450430450Low
4/27/2020Euro435450435450Low
4/24/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/24/2020Dollar428450428450Low
4/24/2020Euro430440430440Low
4/23/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/23/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/23/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/22/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/22/2020Dollar420425420430Low
4/22/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/21/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/21/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/21/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/20/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/20/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/20/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/17/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/17/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/17/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/16/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/16/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/16/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/15/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/15/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/15/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/14/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/14/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/14/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/13/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/13/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/13/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/10/2020Pounds490505490505Low
4/10/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/10/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/9/2020Pounds490505490505Low
4/9/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/9/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/8/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/8/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/8/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/7/2020Pounds490500490500Low
4/7/2020Dollar420430420430Low
4/7/2020Euro425435425435Low
4/6/2020Pounds492497492497Low
4/6/2020Dollar402412402412Low
4/6/2020Euro410415410415Low
4/3/2020Pounds485490492497Low
4/3/2020Dollar400410402412Low
4/3/2020Euro410415410415Low
4/2/2020Pounds485490485490Low
4/2/2020Dollar400410400410Low
4/2/2020Euro410415410415Low
4/1/2020Pounds480485480485Low
4/1/2020Dollar395400395400Low
4/1/2020Euro407412407412Low
3/31/2020Pounds480485480485Low
3/31/2020Dollar395400395400Low
3/31/2020Euro407412407412Low
3/30/2020Pounds480485480485Low
3/30/2020Dollar390395395400Low
3/30/2020Euro407412407412Low
3/27/2020Pounds480485480485Low
3/27/2020Dollar385390390395Low
3/27/2020Euro405410407412Low
3/26/2020Pounds480485480485Low
3/26/2020Dollar385390385390Low
3/26/2020Euro405410405410Low
3/25/2020Pounds475480480485Low
3/25/2020Dollar380385385390Low
3/25/2020Euro400405405410Low
3/24/2020Pounds475480475480Low
3/24/2020Dollar380385380385Low
3/24/2020Euro400405400405Low
3/23/2020Pounds474478474478Low
3/23/2020Dollar380385380385Low
3/23/2020Euro400403400403Low
3/20/2020Pounds475480475480Low
3/20/2020Dollar370375365367Low
3/20/2020Euro395400395400Low
3/19/2020Pounds475480475480Low
3/19/2020Dollar370375370375Low
3/19/2020Euro395400395400Low
3/18/2020Pounds471475471475Low
3/18/2020Dollar370375370375Low
3/18/2020Euro390395390395Low
3/17/2020Pounds470475470475Low
3/17/2020Dollar375380375380Low
3/17/2020Euro400403400403Low
3/16/2020Pounds470475470475Low
3/16/2020Dollar370375370375Low
3/16/2020Euro400403400403Low
3/13/2020Pounds470475470475Low
3/13/2020Dollar372377372377Low
3/13/2020Euro400403400403Low
3/12/2020Pounds475485490495High
3/12/2020Dollar365380375404High
3/12/2020Euro405412410420Low
3/11/2020Pounds470475475485Low
3/11/2020Dollar360366365375Low
3/11/2020Euro387403405412Low
3/10/2020Pounds468472470475Low
3/10/2020Dollar358360360362Low
3/10/2020Euro390398387403Low
3/9/2020Pounds468472468472Low
3/9/2020Dollar358360358360Low
3/9/2020Euro392398392398Low
3/6/2020Pounds468472468472Low
3/6/2020Dollar358360358360Low
3/6/2020Euro390398390398Low
3/5/2020Pounds468472468472Low
3/5/2020Dollar358360358360Low
3/5/2020Euro390397390397Low
3/4/2020Pounds468473468473Low
3/4/2020Dollar358360358360Low
3/4/2020Euro387392387392Low
3/3/2020Pounds468472468472Low
3/3/2020Dollar358360358360Low
3/3/2020Euro387392387392Low
3/2/2020Pounds468472468472Low
3/2/2020Dollar358360358360Low
3/2/2020Euro387392387392Low
2/28/2020Pounds468472468472Low
2/28/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/28/2020Euro387392387392Low
2/27/2020Pounds467471468472Low
2/27/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/27/2020Euro386390387392Low
2/26/2020Pounds468472467471Low
2/26/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/26/2020Euro386390386390Low
2/25/2020Pounds467472468472Low
2/25/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/25/2020Euro388392386390Low
2/24/2020Pounds467472467472Low
2/24/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/24/2020Euro388392388393Low
2/21/2020Pounds467473468473Low
2/21/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/21/2020Euro388392388392Low
2/20/2020Pounds467473467473Low
2/20/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/20/2020Euro388392388392Low
2/19/2020Pounds467473467473Low
2/19/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/19/2020Euro390394390394Low
2/18/2020Pounds467473467473Low
2/18/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/18/2020Euro390394390394Low
2/17/2020Pounds469473467474Low
2/17/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/17/2020Euro390394390394Low
2/14/2020Pounds469473469473Low
2/14/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/14/2020Euro390394390394Low
2/13/2020Pounds470475470475Low
2/13/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/13/2020Euro390396390396Low
2/12/2020Pounds470475470475Low
2/12/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/12/2020Euro390396390396Low
2/11/2020Pounds470475470475Low
2/11/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/11/2020Euro390396390396Low
2/10/2020Pounds470475470475Low
2/10/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/10/2020Euro390396390396Low
2/7/2020Pounds471475471475Low
2/7/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/7/2020Euro390396392396Low
2/6/2020Pounds473476473476Low
2/6/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/6/2020Euro392397392397Low
2/5/2020Pounds473476473476Low
2/5/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/5/2020Euro393397393397Low
2/4/2020Pounds473476473476Low
2/4/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/4/2020Euro393397393397Low
2/3/2020Pounds473476473476Low
2/3/2020Dollar358360358360Low
2/3/2020Euro393397393397Low
1/31/2020Pounds473476473476Low
1/31/2020Dollar358360358360Low
1/31/2020Euro393397393397Low
1/30/2020Pounds472478472476Low
1/30/2020Dollar358361358360Low
1/30/2020Euro394398394398Low
1/29/2020Pounds472476472476Low
1/29/2020Dollar358360358360Low
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18/04/2019Euro402406402406Low
17/04/2019Pounds470475470475Low
17/04/2019Dollar357360357360Low
17/04/2019Euro402406402406Low
16/04/2019Pounds465470470475Low
16/04/2019Dollar360365357360Low
16/04/2019Euro400405402405Low

Data is collated from various black market dealers on the mainland and island of Lagos State where forex is sold. The price quoted daily on this page represents the average price obtained by our Research Team. Our prices are a guide and could be slightly different from the price you get when you eventually decide to buy or sell. This is a daily tracker and updated close of business. See table below for parallel market exchange rate dating to 2019.

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Currencies

Exchange rate gains at the NAFEX window as dollar supply rises by over 92%

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Exchange rate falls across forex markets as dollar liquidity remains low

Nigeria’s exchange rate at the NAFEX window appreciated closing at N385.83 during intraday trading on Thursday, August 13, 2020. In another development, the exchange rate at the parallel market remained stable for a fourth consecutive trading day on Thursday as it closed at N475/$1.

Market Watch

Parallel Market: At the black market where forex is traded unofficially, the Naira remained stable again for the third straight day against the dollar to close at N475/$1 on Thursday, according to information from Abokifx, a prominent FX tracking website. This was the same rate that it exchanged on Wednesday, August 12.

READ ALSO: MTN Nigeria, IHS ditch CBN rate for NAFEX in revised tower agreement

NAFEX: The Naira appreciated marginally against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Thursday, closing at N385.83/$1.

  • This represents a 17 kobo gain when compared to the N386 rate close that was reported on the last trading day, Wednesday, August 12.
  • The opening indicative rate was N386.04 to a dollar on Thursday. This represents a 21 kobo gain when compared to the N386.25 to a dollar that was recorded on Wednesday.
  • The N387 to a dollar is the highest rate during intraday trading. It also sold for as low as N380/$1 during intraday trading.

Forex is sold at several prices and at different times during the day.

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READ MORE: Official: Imo State is unemployment capital of Nigeria

Forex Turnover: Meanwhile, forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window recorded a significant increase on Thursday, August 13, 2020, as it rose by 92.48% a day on day.

  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover rose from $21.55 million on Wednesday, August 12, 2020, to $41.48 million on Thursday, August 13, 2020.
  • The forex turnover for the day although recorded significant improvement from the previous trading day is still below the $50 million mark. This is just as dollar supply has remained very weak.
  • The average forex sale for last week was about $50.6 million which is an improvement on the $32 million that was recorded the previous week. FX turnover which hit a record low of $3.97 million on Monday recorded a significantly improved figure on Thursday but is still a far cry from the over $200 million turnover that was recorded in January.
  • Total forex trading at the NAFEX window in the month of July was $937 million compared to $875 million in June.
  • The exchange rate disparity between the official NAFEX rate and the black-market rate is still as wide as N89.17. Nigeria maintains multiple exchange rates comprising the CBN official rate, the BDC rates, SMIS, and the NAFEX (I&E window). The wide disparity between the 2 rates has created huge arbitrage opportunities for some highly connected individuals.

READ ALSO: How the Coronavirus has impacted Forex trading

Exchange rate unification remains on the cards and yet to be implemented weeks after the central bank governor confirmed it will be executed.

The foreign exchange market appears to be getting used to the recent adjustment of the official exchange rate by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The naira has been under pressure in recent weeks in a forex market that has been experiencing low activity due to serious dollar shortages. Businesses which have been negatively impacted by this shifted their forex demand to the black market.

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Currencies

Nigerian’s should expect “a significant devaluation” to N550/$1 – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs believes Nigeria will devalue past N500 between 12-18 months.

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Naira, Unify exchange rates to foster economic growth – NISER , OFFICIAL: Banks charge N368 per dollar for debit card transactions

A leading global investment banking firm, Goldman Sachs Group, this week, predicted that a significant devaluation of the naira is expected within the next 12 to 18 months.

The investment firm believes this will help bring about “the desired balance” required to stabilize the currency. This was contained in an exclusive Bloomberg Terminal report published on Bloomberg. However, Bloomberg cited the link in an article reviewing the state of Nigeria’s equities market.

According to Bloomberg, “Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week said a significant devaluation of the naira is likely in 12 to 18 months to stabilize Nigeria’s external accounts. An exchange rate of 500-550 per dollar should bring about the desired balance…. compared with a current rate of about 407”. Bloomberg

Nigeria’s one year forward trades at N408.21/$1.

Nigeria’s Forex Challenges

Nairametrics reported during the week that the central bank had devalued the official exchange rate to N380/$1 from N360.1/$1. The adjustment occurred on Thursday, August 6th, 2020. The adjustment is thought to be a move towards unification of the multiple exchange rate windows

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The CBN has adjusted the official exchange rate twice this year. The first one was from N307/$1 to N360/$1 and then just last week, from N360/$1 to N380/$1. At the NAFEX market were the exchange rate is determined by market forces, the exchange rate trades between N388-N390 though turnover remains thin. The SMIS window currently exchanges forex at N380.69/$1 and BDC segment N447/$1. The parallel market exchange rate has averaged N475/$1 more recently.

Last month, the Nairametrics tracker indicates only $937 million was exchanged in July at the NAFEX market compared to $875 million in June. Forex analysts suggest pent up demand for forex is between $1.5 billion to $5 billion some of which include dividends and investments waiting to be repatriated out of Nigeria. CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele has promised to meet this demand when economic activities pick up in the country.

What this means: According to Nairametrics Research Team, whilst Goldman Sachs projection is shared by some hawkish analysts a lot is still yet to be considered. A reopening of the economy and return to full economic activities could change the demand and supply dynamics.

The direction of the exchange rate will be determined by oil prices, growth in the global economy, and Nigeria’s forex policies. The last time, Nigeria wrestled back from an exchange rate above N500/$1 the CBN created the I&E window allowing foreign investors to trade forex freely. The CBN also offered high-interest rates for OMO bills allowing foreign investors to keep their forex within the country.

The exchange rate disparity is currently due to low forex supply at the BDC, SMIS, and NAFEX markets respectively. These scarcity is forex is caused in part by the Covid-19 pandemic which has kept foreign investment out of the country limiting the supply available to the government. If this situation improves, then we could see a convergence between the parallel market to the NAFEX market with the former strengthening towards the latter.

However, a further devaluation could occur if forex scarcity persists and corporates find it difficult to purchase forex at the NAFEX(I&E) window driving up demand at the black market.

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Note: This article was updated to reflect new information.

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