Gold spot came within $30 of hitting the bull’s eye of $1,800 on Wednesday morning at London’s trading session, with gold spot price hitting near 8-year highs on Tuesday at $1,770.15. This was triggered by the dollar’s strength falling on more cheap money being planned by fiscal stakeholders around the world to fight the resurgence of COVID-19 cases.
The intraday high of spot gold for the bullion barometer was $1,770.22, the highest since October 2012, to trade presently at $1,767 by 5.35am, Nigerian time.
“Trade tensions, second wave concerns, the 10-year real yields (TIPS) decline deeper into negative territory, and taper tantrum risks will continue to support bullish calls to reach $1,800 in the short-term and eventually record-high territory later this year,” said Ed Moya, an analyst at New York’s OANDA.
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Humans mainly use gold for making jewelry, physical coins, and recently, for industrial purposes such as in the production of electronics. However, it is rare enough that many people don’t have it, or have it in minute quantities. Humans are emotionally and physically drawn to gold. It provides a significant store of value. Global Investors buy gold to hedge against inflation.
The last time gold spot price hit $1,800 was in 2011, the same year it smashed records highs above $1,900.
“The tsunami of stimulus coming in from everywhere is not only inflationary but also painting a weaker picture for the economy and making gold look attractive,” Edward Meir, an analyst at ED&F Man Capital Markets, was quoted saying on Reuters.
In addition, America’s Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, said that his country was likely to seek more stimulus packages next month, in order to support economic recovery from COVID-19 resurgence.
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“We do anticipate there’ll be a need for more fiscal responsibility and we’ll be doing that in July now,” Mnuchin said during an appearance on the Time100 Talks series. “We’ll call this one CARES 4, as we’ve done what we refer to as three and a half of CARES so far.”
Gold price rises further due to influx of new COVID-19 cases
Gold was up in Asia on Tuesday morning, as investors increasingly turned to the safe-haven asset given the continuous increase of the number of COVID-19 cases globally without signs of abating soon. As of July 7, data from Johns Hopkins University revealed that there were over 11.5 million cases globally, with the United States accounting for about 3 million of them.
Gold futures were up by 0.06% at $1,794.65 by 10:12 PM ET (3:12 AM GMT), moving closer to the 1,800 mark. Stocks, which typically move inversely to gold, were also up on Tuesday.
In the midst of this, the U.S. reported an Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of 57.1 for June on Monday. While the figure exceeded analyst forecasts noting that the U.S. services sector is back on a growth trajectory, investors are still cautious about the recovery of the global economy as COVID-19 numbers keep increasing with no cure in sight.
These events will give gold a boost in the short term. The impact of government stimulus measures globally will also impact the commodity.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at AxiCorp in a note to Nairammetrics, explained in detail why Gold is edging up.
“Gold edges higher as COVID-19 cases increase concerns, offsetting positive data. While the upside is intact, $1,800/oz is stiff resistance. Gold managed to trade up despite a rise in “risk-on” investor appetite and COVID-19 concerns, which do not appear to be going away, are providing underlying support.”
Commenting on the impact of the U.S. on the price of the commodity, he added that “U.S. fatalities are now above 130,000; as US cases approach 3 million, about a quarter of the entire known global caseload, it raises the level of political discord in the US. Given that the genesis of the “risk-on” shift was only a China Times article encouraging China retail investors to buy stocks, gold investors quickly looked through the market pump.”
“However, one reason the markets remain positive over the longer-term is that gold is tied to government spending and accommodative monetary policies outside the US,” he added.
Rising COVID-19 cases in world’s biggest economy falter crude oil prices
OPEC+ is lowering output by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for a third month in July.
Crude oil prices decelerated on Tuesday, pulling back earlier gains recorded at the previous trading session on growing concerns that surging COVID-19 cases in the world’s biggest oil user, the United States, would limit the upside in energy demand.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost about 0.66%, to trade at $40.46 a barrel at 6.11am local time after surging as high as $40.36 in its intra-day trading session. Brent crude also lost about 0.63%, to trade at $42.83, after hitting an intraday high of $43.19.
“The potential for demand destruction as lockdown re-instatement looks more likely are combining with concerns about OPEC+ discipline to weigh on oil prices,” CMC Market’s Chief Market Strategist Michael McCarthy said in a note to Reuters.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, are lowering output by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for a third month in July.
Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at AxiCorp, in an email to Nairametrics, explained the macros limiting the prospect of oil demand. He said:
“The faltering re-opening of the US States is also partially offset by the muscular approach by Saudi Arabia. They are seeking to enforce compliance with OPEC+ quotas – both are currently important in maintaining market balance and ultimately drawing down global inventories.
“It seems traders are getting more accustomed to minor retracements and rallies than expecting a significant price shift this week as a range trade mentality continues to resonate where Brent $40 per barrel does give the appearance of something of a floor.
“With the market torn between robust cyclical data and rising virus case counts in the Sun Belt, putting in significant headroom above $WTI 40 was also challenged by a possible resumption of US shale production as price move higher. While no less concerning is OPEC+ could roll back cuts in August.”
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In addition, data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group scheduled to come out later today and the U.S. Energy Information Administration data planned to be out tomorrow, are expected to show a 100,000 barrel rise in crude oil stockpiles, six experts polled by Reuters estimated.
Gold rises near long-time high of $1,800 as U.S. dollar weakens
The price of gold had experienced a level of pressure, temporarily losing its gains.
Gold futures rose even higher on Monday, led partly by a weakening U.S. dollar amidst rallies of global stocks. As measured by the ICE U.S. dollar index DXY, -0.37%, the U.S. dollar was off 0.4%. The implication of a weaker U.S. dollar is that assets that are priced in the currency will become more attractive to buyers that employ other monetary units.
Global stocks had rallied as a result of a surge in Chinese markets as Beijing’s state-run media put out a front-page editorial that encouraged investors to buy stocks towards supporting domestic markets. Yet, the increase in COVID-19 cases in the U.S has left investors unsure.
Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault explained that, “Bullion prices don’t typically jump because of social unrest or geopolitical strife. But if those stresses add to a financial crisis or economic slump, gold prices can spiral higher.”
For these reasons, gold futures in August rose $2.90, or 0.2%, at $1,792.90 an ounce, following the end of the most-active contract on Thursday according to FactSet data.
The price of gold had experienced a level of pressure, temporarily losing its gains which had risen as high as $1,799 a little after the economic data released Monday showed that the Institute for Supply Management’s index of nonmanufacturing companies increased to 57.1% in the month of June from the 45.4% attained in May. This was the single largest increase since the commencement of the survey as far back as 1997.
Ash noted that “It’s hard to see what stops gold reaching new highs from here.”