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Brent crude price fails to remain over $40, concerns over pledge cut strengthens

Brent crude lost 1.14 %, to trade at $39.38 a barrel at 3.40 am Nigerian time, failing to stay over the $40 resistance price level. 

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Where next for oil prices?, Brent crude futures gained 0.14 to trade at $34.70 at the time this report was drafted, recovering some of its losses earlier in the oil trading session. , Brent crude price fails to remain over $40, concerns over pledge cut strengthens

Brent crude prices dropped on Thursday morning, reversing the gains recorded yesterday, on reports that supply will rise if major crude oil producers fail to reach an agreement on crude oil output cuts that have helped in stabilizing crude oil prices since the start of COVID-19.

Brent crude lost 1.14 %, to trade at $39.38 a barrel at 3:40 am Nigerian time, failing to stay over the $40 resistance price level.

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OPEC members such as Nigeria and Iraq have shown weak compliance in meeting their crude oil production reduction targets set last month.

READ MORE: Nigeria’s revenue burden to ease off as DPR announces bids for marginal oilfields

“Overall, the market is moving in the right direction with the gradual easing of the lockdown. But we still need to be cautious. There is always a risk of another wave of the coronavirus,” the first OPEC source said.

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“The other thing is how quickly demand patterns will recover. Inventories are still above average levels and that needs to be tackled.”

(READ MORE: OPEC+ to discuss extension of output cut as Chinese demands boost Nigerian oil)

OPEC+ had initially agreed to reduce crude oil production by a record 9.7 million barrels per day, or about 10% of global production of crude oil, for the month of May and June in order to minimize the damage caused by COVID-19 pandemic in weakening global demand for crude oil.

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Oil prices gain likely to halt over demand uncertainty as US-China tension intensifies, Brent crude price fails to remain over $40, concerns over pledge cut strengthens

Meanwhile, OPEC+ private sources reportedly told Reuters that Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed on a precursory deal to extend oil production cuts by one month while putting pressure on countries with poor compliance such as Nigeria and Iraq to deepen their oil production cuts.

READ MORE: NNPC to partner Chevron in building a Condensate Refinery in Nigeria

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What you should know about OPEC+: OPEC + came into light in late 2016 as a means for major oil-exporting countries to exercise their control over crude oil prices. Essentially, OPEC+ is an amalgamation of OPEC (Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela) and high oil-exporting non-OPEC countries like Mexico, Oman, South Sudan, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

Rather than reducing crude oil production cuts in July, OPEC+ was deliberating on keeping those cuts beyond June. 

“Saudi Arabia and Russia are aligned on the extension for one month,” one OPEC source said.

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“Any agreement on extending the cuts is conditional on countries who have not fully complied in May deepening their cuts in upcoming months to offset their overproduction,” the private source told Reuters.

“I don’t think there will be a meeting on Thursday. There are still many challenges,” another OPEC source added.

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Patricia

Olumide Adesina is a French-born Nigerian. He is a Certified Investment Trader, with more than 15 years of working expertise in Investment Trading. A member of the Chartered Financial Analyst Society. Financial Market; Yale University, Behavioral Finance; Duke University. You can follow Olumide on twitter @tokunboadesina or email [email protected]

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Coronavirus

COVID-19 Update in Nigeria

On the 15th of July 2020, 643 new confirmed cases and 6 deaths were recorded in Nigeria.

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The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to record significant increase as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 34,259 confirmed cases.

On the 15th of July 2020, 643 new confirmed cases and 6 deaths were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 12,707 samples across the country.

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To date, 34,259 cases have been confirmed, 13,999 cases have been discharged and 760 deaths have been recorded in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 199,016 tests have been carried out as of July 15th, 2020 compared to 186,309 tests a day earlier.

COVID-19 Case Updates- 15th July 2020,

  • Total Number of Cases – 34,259
  • Total Number Discharged – 13,999
  • Total Deaths – 760
  • Total Tests Carried out – 199,016

According to the NCDC, the 643 new cases were reported from 19 states- Lagos (230), Oyo (69), FCT (51), Edo (43), Osun (35), Rivers (30), Ebonyi (30), Kaduna (28), Ogun (27), Ondo (23), Plateau (20), Benue (17), Enugu (16), Imo (10), Delta (6), Kano (4), Nasarawa (2), Kebbi (1), Ekiti (1).

Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 12,941, followed by Abuja (2,738), Oyo (1,951), Edo (1,850), Rivers (1,427),  Delta (1,398), Kano (1,318), Ogun (1,132),  Kaduna (1,067), Ondo (770), Katsina (669), Ebonyi (646), Borno (593), Plateau (591), Gombe (533), Enugu (531), Bauchi (521), Kwara (422), Abia (413),  Imo (409).

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Jigawa state has recorded 321 cases, Bayelsa (318), Osun (311), Nasarawa (254), Sokoto (153), Akwa Ibom and Niger (145),  Benue (143), Adamawa (110), Anambra (101), Kebbi (88), Zamfara (76), Ekiti (67), Yobe (62), Taraba (30), Cross River (10) while Kogi state has recorded 5 cases only.

 

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

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Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020.

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READ ALSO: Bill Gates says Trump’s WHO funding suspension is dangerous

DateConfirmed caseNew casesTotal deathsNew deathsTotal recoveryActive casesCritical cases
July 15, 202034259643760613999195007
July 14, 2020336164637541013792190707
July 13, 202033153595744413671187387
July 12, 2020325585717401613447183717
July 11, 2020319876647241513103181607
July 10, 2020313235757092012795178197
July 9, 202030748499689512546175137
July 8, 2020302494606841512373171927
July 7, 2020297895036691512108170127
July 6, 202029286575654911828168047
July 5, 2020287115446451111665164017
July 4, 202028167603634611462160717
July 3, 2020275644546281211069158677
July 2, 2020271106266161310801156937
July 1, 2020264847906031310152157297
June 30, 202025694561590179746153587
June 29, 20202513356657389402151587
June 28, 20202486749056579007149957
June 27, 20202407777955848625148947
June 26, 20202329868455458253144917
June 25, 20202261459454977822142437
June 24, 20202202064954297613138657
June 23, 20202137145253387338135007
June 22, 20202091967552577109132857
June 21, 202020242436518126879128477
June 20, 202019808661506196718125847
June 19, 202019147667487126581120797
June 18, 20201848074547566307116987
June 17, 202017735587469145967112997
June 16, 202017148490455315623110707
June 15, 20201665857342445349108857
June 14, 202016085403420135220104457
June 13, 20201568250140785101101747
June 12, 20201518162739912489198917
June 11, 2020145546813875449496737
June 10, 20201387340938217435191407
June 9, 2020134646633654420688937
June 8, 2020128013153617404084007
June 7, 20201248626035412395981737
June 6, 2020122333893429382680657
June 5, 20201184432833310369678157
June 4, 2020115163503238353576467
June 3, 2020111663483151332975227
June 2, 20201081924131415323972667
June 1, 20201057841629912312271579
May 31, 20201016230728714300768687
May 30, 2020985555327312285667267
May 29, 202093023872612269763447
May 28, 202089151822595259260647
May 27, 202087333892545250159787
May 26, 2020834427624916238557107
May 25, 202080682292337231155247
May 24, 202078393132265226353607
May 23, 202075262652210217451317
May 22, 2020726124522110200750337
May 21, 2020701633921111190748987
May 20, 202066772842008184046377
May 19, 202064012261921173444757
May 18, 202061752161919164443407
May 17, 202059593881826159441837
May 16, 202056211761765147239737
May 15, 202054452881713132039544
May 14, 202051621931683118038154
May 13, 202049711841646107037374
May 12, 20204787146158695936704
May 11, 202046412421521090235894
May 10, 202043992481421777834794
May 9, 202041512391271174532784
May 8, 202039123861181067931154
May 7, 20203526381108460128184
May 6, 20203145195104553425071
May 5, 2020295014899548123704
May 4, 2020280224594641722912
May 3, 2020255817088240020702
May 2, 20202388220861735119522
May 1, 20202170238691035117512
April 30, 2020193220459731715562
April 29, 2020172819652730713692
April 28, 2020153219545425512322
April 27, 20201337644102559942
April 26, 20201273914152399942
April 25, 20201182873632229252
April 24, 202010951143312088552
April 23, 20209811083231977532
April 22, 2020873912931976482
April 21, 20207821172631975602
April 20, 2020665382311884662
April 19, 2020627862221704362
April 18, 2020541482021663562
April 17, 2020493511841593172
April 16, 2020442351311522772
April 15, 2020407341211282672
April 14, 202037330111992632
April 13, 202034320100912422
April 12, 20203235100852282
April 11, 202031813103702382
April 10, 20203051770582402
April 9, 20202881471512302
April 8, 20202742260442262
April 7, 20202541661442042
April 6, 2020238650351982
April 5, 20202321851331942
April 4, 2020214540251850
April 3, 20202092542251800
April 2, 20201841020201620
April 1, 2020174352091630
March 31, 202013982091280
March 30, 2020131202181210
March 29, 2020111221031070
March 28, 20208919103850
March 27, 2020705103660
March 26, 20206514102620
March 25, 2020517102480
March 24, 2020444102410
March 23, 20204010112370
March 22, 2020308002280
March 21, 20202210001210
March 20, 2020124001110
March 19, 20208000170
March 18, 20208500170
March 17, 20203100030
March 16, 20202000020
March 15, 20202000020
March 14, 20202000020
March 13, 20202000020
March 12, 20202000020
March 11, 20202000020
March 10, 20202000020
March 9, 20202100020
March 8, 20201000010
March 7, 20201000010
March 6, 20201000010
March 5, 20201000010
March 4, 20201000010
March 3, 20201000010
March 2, 20201000010
March 1, 20201000010
February 29, 20201000010
February 28, 20201100010

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Real Estate and Construction

Nigerian Real Estate and COVID in 19 Slides

Validate investment cases and focus energies on property sectors that are more resistant to shocks.

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Nigeria is rapidly approaching an economic crisis as the COVID-19 global pandemic has put the world on lockdown and sent Brent crude oil prices to a 20-year low. Spurred by lower global demand and reliance on oil exports for 90% of its foreign exchange income, Nigeria’s economy and her fragile currency are being pushed to their breaking point.

In this report, we will focus on the impact this pandemic will have on the real estate market in Nigeria. So far, key themes include mass concessions, re-negotiation and restructuring activity, slowed decision making, stretched out project deliveries due to the lockdown and more. After outlining the potential property sector losers, hospitality and retail most especially, alongside potential winners (industrial and healthcare), we discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on individual property sectors and the direction of rentals, capital markets and more.

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Within this uncertain environment, we recommend that market participants including asset owners, real estate service providers and others stress test their businesses at varying levels of reduced income, use the downtime for market research to validate investment cases and focus energies on property sectors that are more resistant to shocks.

Download the report through the link in the header.

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Appointments

IMF appoints Ceda Ogada as new director and secretary of the fund 

Before joining the IMF, Ogada worked at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

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The International Monetary fund (IMF) has announced the appointment of Mr. Ceda Ogada as the Secretary of the Fund and Director of the Secretary’s Department with effect from September 1, 2020, following the retirement of the former Secretary, Mr Jianhai Lin. 

This was disclosed in a press statement by IMF on Wednesday, July 15, 2020. 

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While making the announcement, Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said, Ceda has outstanding institutional knowledge, strategic and intellectual heft, and people leadership. His unparalleled ability to bring people together, combined with his profound appreciation of the Fund’s institutional history and legal principles, as well as a strong service orientation, will help the Fund to even more effectively serve our member countries in a very challenging economic environment.” 

Mr. Ogada joined the IMF’s Legal Department in 1999 and rose through the ranks to become Deputy General Counsel in 2014. During this time, he has worked on virtually all aspects of the Fund’s work, including advising on the governance of the Fund, on country operations, helping to develop Fund policies and implementation guidance, and providing technical assistance to member countries.  

According to the statement, ‘’Some of the key projects that he has worked on include the Fund’s enhanced policy to address governance and corruption issues, ensuring the adequacy of the Fund’s lending resources, reforms in lending policy such as the establishment of the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT), reviews on surveillance policy and capacity development strategy and transparency, archives and communications policies.’ 

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The new Secretary of the fund was heavily involved in the work on euro area crisis countries during the global financial crisis. Recently, he has led the Legal Department in promoting good governance and transparency in several countries, together with the use of emergency financing for the COVID-19 crisis. 

Before he joined IMF, Mr. Ogada worked at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development as a legal expert and also before that he was in private legal practice in the United States. He holds a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School and a B.A. in history from Dartmouth College. Mr. Ogada is a citizen of Kenya. 

 

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