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Nigeria’s GDP grows by 1.87% in Q1 2020, as non-oil sector weakens

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.87%(year-on-year) in real terms, representing a drop of 0.23% points compared to Q1 2019 and 0.68% points decline compared to Q4 2019

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Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.87% (year-on-year) in real terms in Q1 2020. This is according to the first quarter (Q1) GDP report, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

According to numbers contained in the Bureau’s report, the performance recorded in Q1 2020 represents a drop of 0.23% points compared to Q1 2019 (2.10%) and 0.68% points decline compared to Q4 2019 (2.55%), reflecting the earliest effects of disruption caused by Covid-19 pandemic and crash in oil price.

Oil sector

According to the report, Nigeria’s oil sector recorded a real growth rate of 5.06% (year-on-year) in Q1 2020, indicating an increase of 6.51% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (-1.46%).

However, when compared to Q4 2019 which recorded a growth rate of 6.36%, oil sector growth decreased by –1.30% points. The contribution of the Oil sector to aggregate GDP stood at 9.50% in Q1 2020, up from figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2019 (9.22%) and the preceding quarter (7.32%), as the share of the non-oil economy declined.

During the first quarter of 2020, average daily oil production of 2.07 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded. The production level was higher than the 1.99mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019.

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READ ALSO: FG seeks partnership with National Council of Registered Insurance Brokers, here’s why 

Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector grew by 1.55% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q1 2020), this was slower by -0.93% points compared to the rate recorded during the same quarter of 2019 (2.47%), and –0.72% points slower than the fourth quarter of 2019 (2.26%).

According to the Bureau’s report, growth in the non-oil sector was driven mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunications), Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), Agriculture (Crop Production), Mining and Quarrying (Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas), and Construction.

In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 90.50% to the nation’s GDP in the first quarter of 2020, less than its share in the first quarter of 2019 which was 90.78% and the fourth quarter of 2019 recorded as 92.68%. Activities that witnessed weaker performance relative to Q1 2019 include Quarrying, Road transport, Accommodation and Food Services as well as real estate.

Service, Industry sectors remain resilient as economy posts slowest growth in 6-quarter

Nigeria’s service sector showed strong resilient in the period under review as it contributed 54.39% to the aggregate GDP, up from 53.64% recorded in Q4 2019. Also, the industrial sector recorded a marginal increase in its contribution to GDP at 23.65%, up from 22.25% in Q4 2019. Meanwhile, the contribution from agriculture sector contracted to 21.96% from 25.16% in the previous quarter. The contraction in the agricultural sector is largely traceable to the planting season.

A closer look at the GDP report shows that 1.87% growth recorded in Q1 2020 represents the slowest in the last 6 quarters (2018 Q4 – 2020 Q1). In Q4 2018, GDP growth rose to 2.38% as the economy continued its slow recovery from the 2016 recession.

The slow growth momentum had been sustained through the subsequent quarters until the latest contraction which is attributable to disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and oil price.

 The Bottom Line

GDP is Nigeria’s biggest economic data and it measures the monetary value of everything produced in the country. It depicts the nation’s total economic activity. A decline in GDP means major economic activities are slow or sluggish, which may be a result of several factors.

  • It is important to note that while the Nigerian economy contracted slightly in Q1, growth in Q2 is expected to dip largely due to lockdown across major economies of the world which disrupted both supply and demand chain.
  • The Oil sector, Travel and Tourism, Hospitality and Manufacturing are among sectors expected to contract largely in subsequent through 2020
  • According to IMF, the Nigerian economy is expected to contract by -3.4% in the year, as Covid-19 pandemic and oil price shock exacerbate the vulnerability of Nigeria fiscal and monetary landscape.

READ ALSO: Foreign investors ship $21.14 billion to 22 States in 10-month 

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Samuel is an Analyst with over 5 years experience. Connect with him via his twitter handle

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Okwechime Ogor CFA

    May 27, 2020 at 12:31 pm

    The report reveals that the growth rate of the service sector declined from 2.6% in q4-2019 to 1.57% in the reference quarter. What is the basis for saying that the service sector remains resilient ???

    • Bamidele Samuel Adesoji

      May 27, 2020 at 1:23 pm

      Hi Okwechime, the resilience of the service sector addressed in the article was based on its contribution to GDP. On growth basis, of course it posted a slower growth.

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Economy & Politics

Godwin Obaseki wins Edo State governorship election

Incumbent governor, Godwin Obaseki emerged winner in the Edo State gubernatorial election.

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Oil theft gulped $1.35 billion in first six months - Obaseki 

Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) has declared Godwin Obaseki the winner of the Edo State gubernatorial election today.

Mr. Obaseki will return as the Governor of the state for a second term.

The results were declared by INEC on Sunday afternoon after the results were counted from all LGA’s on Saturday.

Obaseki had 307,955 votes, which was enough to be declared a clear winner over Ize-Iyamu’s 223,619 votes.

Obaseki took to his Twitter handle to thank the people of Edo State for their votes. He stated,

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“Words fail me in saluting our teeming supporters who displayed immense courage in the face of threats, intimidation and brutalization. The collective will of Edo people made it possible for us to triumph over godfatherism. Congratulations to all Edo people. This is our victory!”

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Around the World

WTO: Okonjo-Iweala still in contention as 3 candidates depart race for DG

Okonjo-Iweala and the remaining 4 other candidates hope to succeed the current DG, Mr Roberto Azevêdo.

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Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, World Bank, Davos, World Economic Forum, WTO accepts nomination of Okonjo-Iweala as DG despite opposition from Egypt

Three candidates running for the post of the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation have fallen out of the race after failing to secure enough votes in the first rounds of voting, leaving only 5 candidates left, including Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

This was disclosed by Bloomberg on Thursday, before the meeting on Friday. The Candidates that are out of the race are Jesus Seade (Mexico), Tudor Ulianovschi (Moldova), and Hamid Mamdouh (Egypt). The candidates were not able to secure the support needed for the first round of 3 rounds of voting.

READ: China’s Covid-19 vaccine may be ready for general public in November 2020

Dr. Ngozi Okonjo Iweal joins 4 other candidates for the next round of voting. The candidates are; Liam Fox (UK), Amina Chawahir Mohamed Jibril (Kenya), Yoo Myung-hee ( South Korea), and Mohammad Maziad Al-Tuwaijri ( Saudi Arabia).

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala disclosed last month some of her plans for the Organization if made President. Nairametrics reported she noted that part of her vision is to build a trade institution where there is greater trust among its members. She also stressed that the WTO, at this critical time, is needed to ensure that trade and global markets remain open.

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READ: Soybean Futures reach 2-year high, following U.S sales to China 

On healing the rift between the US and China, Okonjo-Iweala admitted that it is going to be challenging and not be easy. She said:

Well, this is not going to be easy, if it was easy, it could have been done a long time since. So it would be very challenging but it is not an impossible job. It is very clear that both the US and China have been helped and benefitted from the multilateral trading system in the past. Hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty. They have experienced shared prosperity in the economies and their countries.’

She added she would listen to both countries to find out what really are the issues causing distrust among them. She said that she will not want to be involved in the larger political problems, but will rather separate the trade issues and focus on them and build this trust.

READ: Amaechi pleads with NASS to halt questioning of loan agreement with China

You need to begin to find areas where there can be confidence-building and trade. Building trust is not talking about it, you have to have areas where both can work together and agree and we have a golden opportunity in the fisheries subsidies negotiations that are going on now because the US is a party to it, China is a party, the EU, all other members,’’ she said.

Okonjo-Iweala and the 4 other candidates will present themselves to the members of the global trade body for the later stages of voting in the hopes of securing the highest number of votes to succeed the current DG, Mr. Roberto Azevêdo.

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Economy & Politics

FG to establish a new anti-corruption agency

Malami disclosed that the new anti-corruption agency would be called Proceeds of Crime Recovery and Management Agency.

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FG to establish a new anti-corruption agency, P&ID, FG, malami, $9bn fine is a scam - Federal Government , UPDATED: P&ID operations shut down, assets forfeited by court order

The Federal Government has approved the establishment of a new anti-corruption agency that will have the responsibility of properly managing and coordinating all assets seized domestically or returned from abroad, following anti-corruption probes.

The disclosure was made by the Attorney General and Minister for Justice, Abubakar Malami, while briefing state house correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Wednesday, September 16, 2020.

Malami explained that the recovered assets had been scattered across several agencies and that better coordination would encourage international/overall coordination in recovering more looted assets.

Nigeria has repatriated well over $300 million of looted funds this year alone and seized about $40 million worth of jewellery belonging to the former Minister for Petroleum, Diezani Allison-Madueke. This is in addition to the seized ill-gotten properties and real estate.

(READ MORE: Nigeria Customs Service to distribute N3.2 billion worth of food items)

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The Attorney General said that this new initiative would create a one-stop-shop for managing seized assets in an open and accountable way. He called the plan the next level of transparency and said the agency could also give the Ministry of Finance, Budget, and National Planning a budget for recovered assets.

He disclosed that the new anti-corruption agency, which would be called Proceeds of Crime Recovery and Management Agency, is to be saddled with the responsibility of managing the assets that constitute the proceeds of crime in the country. He said that the FEC had approved the transmission of a bill, ‘Proceeds of Crime Recovery and Management Agency Bill,’ to the National Assembly.

READ: OmiseGO, fastest growing altcoin, up 49% in past 24 hours

Malami noted that setting up an agency like this had become quite imperative in a bid to consolidate on the gains achieved so far in the government’s war against corruption.

The fight against corruption in the country has not been an easy one, as even a US senator, Chuck Grassley, earlier this year, raised concerns about the return of money due to worries over whether there were proper safeguards to prevent further misappropriation or relooting of those recovered funds.

READ: Exclusive: Best bank in Nigeria judging by the numbers 

The Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC), which currently has the responsibility of managing its recovered or seized assets, has been bedevilled by a lot of controversies recently, following the accusation and subsequent suspension of its Ag. Chairman, Ibrahim Magu.

This follows the Minister of Justice’s accusation of the agency for diversion of funds that had been recovered during corruption investigations.

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