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MTN Nigeria: Accelerated growth in data revenue to buoy earnings despite soft macro conditions

MTN Nigeria (MTNN) reported double-digit growth in Revenue (up 13% y/y to N1.2 trillion) in FY 2019.

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MTN Nigeria, MTN Nigeria Communications Plc. begins N100 billion commercial paper issuance today, MTN Nigeria Communications Plc: increase in other income, others boost revenues.

MTN Nigeria (MTNN) reported double-digit growth in Revenue (up 13% y/y to N1.2 trillion) in FY 2019, on the back of growth in voice (+8% y/y) and data revenue (+42% y/y). Buoyed by the topline growth and the sub inflationary growth in Operating Expenses (up 4% y/y), Pre-tax Profit grew strongly, up 31% y/y to N290.1 billion in FY 2019.

We believe the outbreak of COVID-19 which has disrupted activities, leading to shutdown of offices, factories, schools and social gatherings will result in increased data and voice consumption in the short term as people increasingly communicate remotely and seek entertainment during the lockdown.

Thus, we expect MTN’s earnings to receive a significant boost. Post COVID-19, we think favourable demographics, rising smartphone penetration along with increasing internet penetration (38.47% as at Jan-2020 compared with 32.34% in Jan 2019), and continued investment by the company in deepening 4G coverage are positive catalyst for earnings growth.

We have revised our estimates over our forecast years (2020-2024). The overall impact is a marginal increase in our price target to N187.4/s from N184.2/s previously, hence we retain our BUY recommendation.

[READ MORE: Oil Price: A dead cat bounce in the making?)

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Our revised target price implies an upside potential of 97.3% from the last closing price of N95.0/s. MTN is currently trading at a FY2020e P/E and EV/EBITDA of 6.7x and 2.8x respectively, a discount to EM peers average of 13.9x and 4.7x respectively.

MTN Nigeria: Accelerated growth in data revenue to buoy earnings despite soft macro conditions

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_______________________________________________________________________

CSL STOCKBROKERS LIMITED CSL Stockbrokers,

Member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange,

First City Plaza, 44 Marina,

PO Box 9117,

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Lagos State.

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1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Ayodeji Adeoye

    April 9, 2020 at 10:21 pm

    But you how these MTN is enslaving Nigerians especially their customer care reps

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Obituaries

Just-in: Diego Armando Maradona is dead

Argentine football star, Diego Armando Maradona is dead.

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Argentine football star, Diego Armando Maradona is dead.

This was disclosed by the Premier League via its Twitter handle on Wednesday evening.

It tweeted, “We are deeply saddened to hear of the passing of footballing great, Diego Maradona, an extraordinarily gifted footballer who transcended the sport.

“Our thoughts and sincere condolences to Diego’s family, friends and those who knew him.”

He reportedly died of a heart attack on Wednesday at his home in the outskirts of Buenos Aires.

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Maradona, 60, had recently battled health issues and underwent emergency surgery for a subdural haematoma several weeks ago.

 

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Details soon …

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Energy

FG to begin online registration, monitoring of petrol stations, depots

The DPR has stated that it will commence the remote monitoring, registration, and accreditation of all petroleum products depots.

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FG to begin online registration, monitoring of petrol stations, depots

The Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) has revealed that it plans to automate and begin remote monitoring, registration, and accreditation of petroleum products depots, retail outlets, and the entire downstream oil and gas industry, with the launch of the newly established Downstream Remote Monitoring Systems (DRMS).

While disclosing a statement in Abuja, the Head, Public Affairs of the DPR, Paul Osu, pointed out that the newly established Downstream Remote Monitoring Systems is expected to take off on December 1, 2020, after the launch in Abuja.

READ: Nigeria’s 5,000 BPD refinery will produce 271 million liters of petrol every year

According to a report by Vanguard, Osu explained that the DRMS is a web-based solution designed to provide intelligent regulatory and inventory management system for petroleum products supply and distribution from depot to retail outlets and also as a regulatory tool to monitor retail outlets and depot activities.

He said, “Other features of the application include retail outlets accreditation and re-registration, nationwide automated product inventory management, retail outlets coordinate recording for mapping purposes and transactions management and report generation of dealers nationwide.

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READ: NNPC says local operators must improve capacity to achieve low cost of oil production

“The establishment of DRMS is another strategic initiative of DPR to continue to create opportunities and enable business in the oil and gas industry in Nigeria.”

It can be recalled that the DPR had a few months ago, launched the National Production Monitoring System (NPMS), another online platform to assist the oil and gas regulator accurately monitor national crude oil production and exports, through the provision of a system for direct and independent acquisition of production data from oil and gas facilities in Nigeria

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READ: House of Reps summon Emefiele, NNPC GMD over unremitted N3.24 trillion

This is to ensure timely and accurate reporting of production figures and export data. This is also expected to guard against the crude oil theft that is prevalent in Nigeria’s upstream oil sector or reported cases of crude oil that is sold but unaccounted for.

The NPMS is an initiative that is developed as a replacement for the current paper-based report and ensures ready production reporting to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) and other agencies.

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Financial Services

Era of backlog of unsettled claims is over – NAICOM boss

NAICOM has stated that it will monitor and sanction insurance companies who fail to settle claims as at when due.

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NAICOM

The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) is out to seriously sanction any insurance companies with huge unsettled claims.

This disclosure was made by the Commissioner for Insurance, Mr. Sunday Thomas, at the on-going 2020 Insurance Directors’ Conference, jointly organized by NAICOM and the College of Insurance & Financial Management (CIFM), held at the Oriental Hotel in Lagos.

READ: EFCC gives reason for unspent N4 billion in 2020 budget

Mr. Thomas reiterated the need for the operators, post-pandemic, to appropriately strengthen their human and financial capital for effective participation in big-ticket risks to take advantage of the obvious gains of the domestication policy in the Nigeria Content Development Act 2010.

In his words, Mr. Thomas stated, “More businesses especially in the oil and gas and the Aviation sectors are now being reinsured abroad. Of more concern is the declining participation of life companies in the annuity business, which is the emerging business for our industry.

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READ: SEC issues pre-notice on cancellation of certificates of 157 inactive CMOs

“These are the areas where the industry can impose itself on the economy through the control of funds for national development. The industry must invest handsomely in technology, one of our key drivers for developing the market.

“The Institutions should be prepared to digitalize their processes, procedures, and systems, in order to make their operations seamless and real-time. The Commission is investing heavily in automating its processes and expects nothing less from the insurance institutions. An industry Information Technology Guideline has been issued for the operators and the Commission requires your support and cooperation for effective compliance.”

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(READ MORE: FG seeking FDI to develop Special Economic Zones – Trade Minister)

Why this matters

Prompt settlement of claims should be a top priority for the insurance operators in achieving an excellent and responsive customer service experience. Settlement of claims has been a serious nightmare for quite a number of customers, resulting to the abysmally low insurance culture in Nigeria.

READ: Fidelity Bank Plc must cover the chink in its curtains to keep rising 

Customers are more likely to patronize the insurance companies that are prompt in claims settlement and by extension improve the industry penetration in the market.

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