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Oil Price: A dead cat bounce in the making?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its latest forecast, expects Brent oil price to average US$33 this year.

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CRUDE OIL, U.S Shale, Naira under pressure, as crude oil hits $25 per barrel, Oil Price: A dead cat bounce in the making?, Bears tear Crude oil futures into shreds as Brent slumps more than 20%

Amidst weakening global demand for crude and uncertainty over the commitment among OPEC+ producers to extend production cuts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its latest forecast, expects Brent oil price to average US$33 this year.

While this may come as good news to cheer for Nigeria considering the revised benchmark of the 2020 budget at US$30, we think the gains may be capped by the possibility of further production cuts that the nation may have to sacrifice as part of its pledge to OPEC+ in stabilizing the global oil market.

Notably, the latest forecast of IEA comes at a crucial time when OPEC and a group of other leading oil producers are scheduled to meet tomorrow to deliberate on further production cuts in addition to the current 2.1mbpd.

Furthermore, IEA expects global oil demand to fall in 2020, the first full-year contraction in more than a decade, on the back of shrinking demand from China, which accounted for more than 80% of global oil demand growth in 2019.

[READ MORE: INSURANCE: NAICOM mulls extension of recapitalisation exercise)

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In addition, jet fuel demand remains hampered by the shutdown of airline operations following travel restrictions implemented by several countries across the globe. On the bright side, the agency projects that the U.S. will return to being a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020, raising prospects of a medium-term stronger recovery in the oil market.

FG battles 6 oil firms for failure to remit N20 trillion , ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron delay $58.4 billion oil and gas investment in Nigeria, Crude Oil: Nigeria’s oil production slips for the third consecutive month , Tax reform, policy uncertainty to cause oil drop as foreign firms look outside Nigeria, Nigeria plans to support oil price with lower production cost per barrel, Oil price slumps further to $30 pb, as Nigeria grapples with high production cost, Reduction in PMS: A nod to the deregulation of the downstream sector?

Interestingly, the Energy Department disclosed that the U.S. would join in a discussion of energy ministers from the Group of 20 industrialized nations on Friday this week, just a day after the OPEC + meeting. In our view, this reinforces the commitment of the US in preventing a collapse of the oil market, as President Trump has also been trying to act as a middle man in ending the ongoing price war between the Saudis and Russians in an attempt to support shale producers.

In our view, we expect oil prices to likely receive a boost from the prospects of deeper production cuts at OPEC+ meeting, however, we do not think the production cuts will be sufficient in offsetting the widening gap in global demand for oil. Hence, we expect the gains to be short-lived until global economic activities return to normal.

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Financial Services

CBN to bar exporters with unrepatriated export proceeds from banking services

The CBN will from January 31, 2021 bar all exporters with unrepatriated export proceeds from accessing banking services.

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CBN to restrict foreign exchange on more food imports

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced the prohibition of all Nigerian exporters who are yet to repatriate their export proceeds, from banking services effective from January 31, 2021.

The apex bank had in an earlier circular warned that failure to repatriate exports within 90 days for oil and gas and 180 days for non-oil exports constitute a breach of the extant regulation.

Analysts believe that the directive is part of a monetary control mechanism by policymaker to maintain relative stability in the exchange rate, especially after the pandemic created a wide disparity between the official exchange and the parallel market rates, eliminating incidences of over-invoicing, transfer pricing, double handling charges, etc.

In lieu of this, all concerned exporters are urged to comply with the directive before the specified date.

What you should know

  • According to Bloomberg sources, the new directive applies to exports up until June last year.
  • In a bid to ensure prudent use of foreign exchange resources, the Central Bank of Nigeria had earlier instructed authorised dealers and exporters to only open forms M for letters of credit, bills for collection and other forms of payment

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Financial Services

Niger Insurance Plc gets shareholders nod to restructure business

Niger Insurance Plc has announced plans to restructure its insurance business into distinct but mutually dependent business entities.

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Edwin Igbiti

Niger Insurance Plc has obtained shareholders’ approval to restructure its insurance business into general, life and business insurance, with each segment to be structured as a separate legal entity.

This is part of the resolutions passed at the 50th Annual General Meeting of Niger Insurance Plc., held on 20th of January, 2021 at Peninsula Hotel in Lekki, Lagos.

The decision to restructure the company is in a bid to make it more efficient and profitable to stakeholders, especially as efforts are geared towards overturning a loss of about 1,1723.2% Year-on-Year, earlier made by the company in its last reported financial statement, Q2, 2020, as reported by Nairametrics.

Other key decisions reached at the 50th AGM include;

  • The re-appointment of Mr Ebi Enaholo and Mrs. Olufemi Owopetu as Directors of the company.
  • Acceptance of the presented financial statement for the year ended December 31, 2019 and the report of the audit committee, directors and auditors.
  • Directors were authorized to fix the remuneration of the auditors.
  • Directors were authorized to appoint external auditors to replace retiring auditors of the company.
  • The appointment of four individuals as members of the audit committee.
  • A decision to restructure the company’s business capital was also reached.

In case you missed it: The shareholders of Niger Insurance Plc in the 49th Annual General Meeting approved the decision by the company’s board to raise additional capital to the tune of N15 billion, in a bid to meet the revised recapitalization targets for general and life insurance companies.

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What you should know: The House of Representatives had in December 2020 directed NAICOM to suspend the mandatory deadline for the first phase of 50%-60% of the minimum paid-up share capital for insurance and reinsurance firms.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Qua Iboe crude exports resume as ExxonMobil lifts force majeure

ExxonMobil has lifted a force majeure on Nigeria’s Qua Iboe crude oil exports as production resumes.

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ExxonMobil has lifted a force majeure on Nigeria’s Qua Iboe crude oil export terminal, as crude exports resume for the first time in almost six weeks after a fire at the terminal halted operations.

This is according to a company spokesman yesterday, who confirmed the company had lifted force majeure on Qua Iboe crude loadings.

Qua Iboe production started to ramp up to normal levels of 200,000 b/d in the past week, according to sources, with the release of both the February and March loading programs.

The VLCC Dalia was also in the process of loading a 1-million-barrel stem at the Qua terminal since January 21, 2021, according to data intelligence firm Kpler. This will be the first export of Qua Iboe since December 15, 2020, after a fire hit the facility and injured two workers.

The company has been under pressure since the closure and prices have taken a hit as a result of the disruption. S&P Global Platts last assessed the grade at a discount to Dated Brent of 50 cents/b, down from a premium against the benchmark in December.

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Bonny Light, a mainstay Nigerian crude which typically trades at roughly the same level as Qua Iboe, was last assessed 30 cents/b higher.

What they are saying

One trader said: “If you get a cargo of Qua now it could be 50 cents to a dollar below Bonny even – a January cargo is completely out of cycle and the reliability issues mean people won’t touch it.”

Another trader stated that: “[The return of Qua Iboe] is not what West African crude assessments (WAF) differentials needed.”

What you should know

  • Qua Iboe is one of Nigeria’s largest export grades, and is very popular among global refiners, with India, the US, Canada, Italy, Spain, Indonesia, and the Netherlands being key buyers.
  • Qua Iboe is light sweet crude, which has a gravity of 36 API and sulfur content of 0.13%. The crude, produced from fields 20-40 miles off the coast of southeast Nigeria, is brought to shore at the Qua Iboe terminal via a seabed pipeline system.
  • Indian demand has steadied following a buying spree late last year, and European demand has been hit by renewed coronavirus lockdowns in the region.
  • Prices for Nigerian crude have suffered in recent weeks, even with lower supply due to the outage.
  • February and March loading programs have been issued for Qua Iboe averaging 169,643 b/d and 153,226 b/d respectively.
  • Production of this key grade ranged between 180,000-220,000 b/d in 2020, according to S&P Global Platts estimates.

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