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Nigerian banks broadly positive after Naira devaluation

The CBN recently adjusted the rate in the Investors and Exporters Foreign exchange window to N380/USD from the N364 to N370.

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Foreign exchange market, Nigeria’s fixed income & money market update ending 13th March, 2020, Why the s, CBNtrong dollar is giving Nigeria headache, Nigerian banks broadly positive after Naira devaluation, Exchange rate sustains gain at NAFEX window as CBN orders BDCs to sell at N386/$1

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently adjusted the rate in the Investors and Exporters Foreign exchange window to N380/USD from the N364 to N370 range it had been trading for some time now, as portfolio outflows increased depreciation pressure on the currency given the material reduction in oil prices.

The currency was also trading at the N377 to N379 range in the parallel market, after reaching a high of N410 – N415 levels at the parallel market. Overall, moving forward, the FX devaluation of the naira will broadly be positive for some Nigerian banks assuming it does not result in further deterioration in the macros fundamentals of the Nigerian economy.

Top tier 1 banks like Zenith Bank and Guaranty Trust Bank are likely to benefit the most from the recent development.

What it means to banks: Currency adjustment net-positive will likely earn foreign currency revaluation gains for Zenith Bank with its N698 billion net positive foreign currency balance sheet position.

Guaranty Trust Bank too with its N532 billion net positive foreign currency balance sheet position, First Bank of Nigeria’s N166 billion net positive foreign currency balance sheet position, and FCMB with N79 billion net positive foreign currency balance sheet position. These banks have more assets than liabilities in their foreign currency book.

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READ MORE: First Bank to redeem $450 million notes ahead of maturity date

The numbers also suggest that we are likely to see foreign currency losses in Access bank with N1.2 trillion net negative balance sheet position followed by UBA with N281 billion net negative balance sheet position and finally Fidelity Bank with N30 billion net negative balance sheet position.

Before now, GTBank and First Bank made the most foreign currency revaluation gains of N87.3 billion and N80.2 billion during the last currency devaluation in 2016, accounting for 59% and 48% of non-interest revenues respectively, and 21% and 14% of gross earnings respectively. At that time too, no bank reported FX revaluation losses.

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From a balance sheet growth perspective, It’s observed that the highest adjustment in net loans and advances are GTB (3.2%), FBNH (3.2%), FCMB (3.2%) and Zenith (2.4%) when adjusting the foreign currency net loans to N380/USD from N360/USD based on their latest audited financial records released.

While on the customer deposit side, records show the highest adjustment in Zenith (4%), FCMB (4%), FBNH (3.9%) and Access (3.8%).

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Consequently, asset quality deterioration concerns could be minimal for now: while awaiting disclosure from banks on the foreign currency components of non-performing loans, it’s expected that 5.6% devaluation of the naira will result to a 5.6% deterioration in non-performing loans at a worst-case scenario, assuming that all the non-performing loans are in foreign currency.

[READ MORE: Naira depreciates to N410 per dollar as local currency weakens)

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Furthermore, the continuous spread of COVID-19, its impact on the global economy and Nigeria remains a key risk to the banks currently, as company-specific issues take a back burner.

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Nevertheless, Nigerian banks with resilient and robust balance sheet and high efficiency as it places them in a better position to weather the storm. Hence Guaranty Trust Bank and Zenith Bank remain on top as most likely to gain from the recent devaluation of the naira.

However a weaker naira also increases Nigerian banks’ risk-weighted assets related to their foreign currency loans, putting negative pressure on their capital metrics, but, the banks hold good capital buffers.

Olumide Adesina is a France-born Nigerian. He is a Certified Investment Trader, with more than 15 years of working expertise in Investment Trading and Financial Market Analysis. Member of the Chartered Financial Analyst Society. You can follow Olumide on Twitter @tokunboadesina or email [email protected]

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Babafemi Adebayo

    April 1, 2020 at 12:10 pm

    Dear Olumide /Nairametrics team,

    Thanks once again for fhe beautifully researched and insightful write up. I have visited this blog almost every day for more than 4 years now and am always quick to refer and share your articles.

    Kindly shed some light on the components used in arriving at the foreign currency assets and liabilities. The article only identified fx loans on d asset side.

    What makes up the fx liabilities and what other fx assets are considered in arriving at the net position.

    I look forward to your feed back.

    Warm Regards.

    Babafemi Adebayo

  2. Yusuf

    April 22, 2020 at 7:09 pm

    Yahaya

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Business News

BREAKING: Nigeria’s Manufacturing Sector contracts for 6th consecutive month

The manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month as 8 subsectors contracted out of 14.

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Manufacturing: Momentum in activities slows in January, CBN’s forex intervention has encouraged influx of raw materials - Manufacturers , Manufacturing: Activity level slumps on COVID-19

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), for the month of October, witnessed a contraction for the 6th consecutive month, as it stood at 49.4 index points.

This was disclosed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in its October PMI report released today.

According to the information contained in the report, despite the fact that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the month of October contracted, the Manufacturing PMI index recorded a month-on-month increase owing to improved New orders, faster manufacturing supplier delivery time, and slight changes in production and employment levels.

What you should know

The report stated that, out of the 14 subsectors surveyed, 6 subsectors reported expansion (above 50% threshold) in the review month in the following order:

  • Electrical equipment
  • Transportation equipment
  • Printing & related support activities
  • Chemical & pharmaceutical products
  • Textile, apparel, leather & footwear
  • Cement

While the remaining 8 subsectors reported contraction (below 50% threshold) in the review month in the following order:

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  • Primary metal
  • Petroleum & coal products,
  • Paper products
  • Fabricated metal products
  • Furniture & related products
  • Nonmetallic mineral products
  • Plastics & rubber products
  • Food, beverage & tobacco products

PMI for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 46.8 points in October 2020, indicating contraction in Nonmanufacturing PMI for the seventh consecutive month. Of the 17 sub-sectors surveyed, 3 subsectors reported growth, while 11 subsectors declined.

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Corporate deals

CAP Plc set to merge with Portland Paints and Products Plc.

CAP Plc and Portland Paints have taken a decision to merge their respective businesses in accordance with applicable laws.

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CAP Plc

The Board of Directors of Chemical and Allied Products Plc (CAP Plc), and Portland Paints and Products Plc (Portland Paints), have decided to merge their respective businesses in accordance with applicable laws to drive growth and expansion within the Nigerian and African markets.

This is according to a press release signed by Bolarin Okunowo, the Managing Director of Portland Paints, made available on NSE, Monday, 26th October 2020.

READ: Big players in Paints and Coatings industry suffer 52% profit loss in the first 6 months of 2020

The completion of the proposed merger is subject to approvals being obtained from the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), the Federal High Court, as well as shareholders of CAP and Portland Paints.

READ: Meet the woman winning in a male-dominated paint market 

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What you should know

  • Should the proposed merger go ahead, CAP Plc will emerge as the resultant entity.
  • The proposed merger will be executed by way of a Scheme of Merger (the “Scheme”) in accordance with Section 711 of the Companies and Allied Matters Act, 2020, and other applicable laws, rules, and regulations.
  • The Scheme will involve the transfer of all Portland Paints Plc’s assets, liabilities and business undertakings including real property and intellectual property rights to CAP Plc.
  • In consideration for the transfer, CAP Plc is offering shareholders of Portland Paints a choice to receive N2.90 cash for every Portland Paints share held OR 1 new ordinary share of CAP Plc, credited as fully paid up for every 8 Portland Paints shares held.
  • The proposed consideration represents a 45% premium to the last traded share price of Portland Paints Plc on October 16, 2020, being the last business day prior to the date on which CAP Plc sent its merger proposal to the Board of Portland Paints and a 41% premium on the trading price as at close of trading on October 23, 2020.

READ: GNI lists shares on NASD after delisting voluntarily from NSE 

What they are saying

Commenting on the proposed merger, David Wright, Managing Director of CAP, said, “The decision to pursue the proposed merger, is driven by the Board’s strategic plan to aggressively grow within the Nigerian and African markets.

“We believe that the Proposed Merger presents a unique opportunity that will benefit all stakeholders, from shareholders to customers, as well as the broader economy. I am excited by the prospect of an enlarged company with a broader decorative paint portfolio covering the premium, mid-market and affordable segments and the inclusion of marine and protective coatings, all of which will benefit our customers and shareholders.”

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READ: Africa Prudential tops losers list following mark down

The Managing Director of Portland Paints, Bolarin Okunowo, submitted that “In recent months, the Board and Management of Portland Paints have evaluated various strategic options with a view to positioning our company to capture emerging growth opportunities.

“CAP Plc’s business is complementary to ours, and both companies will be better able to serve our respective customers by coming together. I believe the combination of Portland Paints and CAP will yield significant benefits for all of our stakeholders.”

Mutual shareholder

Portland Paints and Products Nigeria Plc – with 85.98% of the company’s issued share capital owned by UAC Nigeria Plc, manufactures and sells decorative, industrial, and marine/protective coatings for the construction of oil & gas industries in Nigeria. Portland Paints is the Nigerian representative of Hempel. It is listed on the NSE.

Chemical and Allied Products Plc (CAP) – a subsidiary of UAC Nigeria Plc – which holds 51.49% of the company’s shares, manufactures and sells premium and standard paints and coatings, and is the sole technological licensee of Akzo Nobel Coatings International B.V. in Nigeria. It is listed on the NSE.

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ENDSARS

#EndSARS: Anyone found culpable in Lekki Toll Plaza shooting would be held accountable – Sanwo-Olu

Sanwo-Olu has continued to ensure Nigerians that those found culpable in the unfortunate Lekki shootings will not escape the law.

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#EndSARS: Anyone found culpable in Lekki Toll Plaza shooting would be held accountable - Sanwo-Olu

Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has said that the Lagos State Government would ensure that anyone found culpable in last Tuesday’s shooting at the Lekki Toll Plaza would be held accountable for their actions.

This was disclosed in a statement by the Lagos State Government, after the Governor’s interview with CNN’s Becky Anderson.

In the interview with CNN, the Governor said, “We will be committed to a full investigation of what happened and people would be held accountable. They certainly would be held accountable. We would do everything possible to ensure that they are held accountable.

READ: CBN rolls out plans to stop smuggling, vows to block several bank accounts

“People have claimed that their friends and family members have been killed. So, this Judicial Panel of Enquiry is meant to bring all of these stories to accountability; where we can make restitution, where families can prove and identify officers that were responsible for this.

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“I am not the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, I am Governor of a State. The report would be out and we would channel the report to all the relevant authorities in the state to ensure that every one that is found culpable is accountable for the act.”

READ: EFCC files suit against ex Skye Bank Chairman Tunde Ayeni

He added that there was no international pressure on Nigerian leaders to investigate the Lekki incident, and he had met the #EndSARS protesters. He also acknowledged that the protests were legitimate.

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“There are no international pressures whatsoever. These are genuine protesters that we all believe and we all have knowledge about. I was the first governor among governors, with due respect to all my other colleagues, who came out to meet with them, who started from the front. I carried the EndSARS flags with them. I met with them twice and we all had the rally together and worked together,” he said.

Explore Data on the Nairametrics Research Website

Sanwo-Olu also said that the investigations would be a catalyst for positive change of Governance, and he saw it as a wake-up call for those in power.

“I genuinely believe there would be a change for two reasons. One, what has happened, especially in Lagos is extremely unimaginable. Number two is that it was a clarion call for all of us in government, especially understanding and realizing what the youths truly want us to be doing. So, it hit all of us like a thunderbolt and it was just a wake-up call,” he said.

READ: #EndSARS: Tinubu says he has no investment in LCC, collects no dime from Lekki Tollgate

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What you should know

Nairametrics reported last week that several social media accounts had revealed that peaceful protesters were allegedly being shot at by the military at the Lekki toll holdout. The Nigerian Army, however, denied deploying soldiers to attack #EndSARS protesters who assembled at the Lekki Toll Plaza.

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The Lagos State Government ordered an investigation into the Lekki Toll Plaza shooting that was allegedly done by some men of the Nigerian Army on Tuesday evening. Babajide Sanwo-Olu had also stated that Lagos State would not burn on his watch, as he tried to calm things down after hoodlums wreaked havoc post-Lekki shootings, and announced that the Judicial panel set up by the state would include the incident at Lekki toll gate.

READ: ASUU discloses why it is yet to call off nationwide strike

Bottomline

The Lekki incident has gotten the world’s attention, with the Governor and other members of government admitting that there were casualties as a result of the incident. The onus is on the Federal Government to ensure the recommendations of the state judicial panels are properly executed after they submit their reports.

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