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Another crushing recession ‘is coming’

Brace up; The effect of the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia as well as Covid-19 virus is expected to throw Nigeria into another recession by the end of 2020.

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recession, Surviving the looming recession in the Nigerian tech space

The effect of the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia as well as the global health pandemic caused by the Covid-19 virus is expected to throw Nigeria into another recession by the end of 2020. 

This is based on an analyst report published by Rennaissance Capital (Rencap) and seen by Nairametrics. According to the research report titled SSA Revising our Forecast, Sub Saharan African countries including Nigeria are expected to face significant economic downturn as the impact of the coronavirus ravages the entire world. The report, however, singles out Nigeria and Angola, two of the largest oil producers as the worst hit by the oil crisis. 

On the impact of oil prices: According to Rencap, the fall in oil prices below $30 will negatively impact Nigeria’s export earnings. Nigeria has been talking about diversifying away from oil but it has been slow to effect this pivot. It is once again vulnerable.

The collapse in oil prices could be devastating for Nigeria because oil accounts for 90% export revenue and 60% of the federal government’s revenue. This is exacerbated by the global demand shock caused by COVID-19, which largely explains why Nigeria is sitting on 30 or more unsold April-loading cargoes of crude oil.  

READ MORE: FG targets $150 billion revenue from Zero-oil plan 

Specta

On Recession Fears: The analysts also predicted the Nigerian economy will once again fall into a recession as the impact of the crash in oil prices reverberates across the economy. Nigeria relies heavily on oil to drive economic growth thus, just like it happened in 2016, oil prices are likely to trigger another bout of recession in the country. 

Oil may only account for 9% of GDP, but petrodollars are to the non-oil economy what diesel is to Nigeria’s multitude of generators. It is an important facilitator of economic activity. A sharp decrease in oil revenue implies a significant deceleration of GDP growth. Given how fragile the economy is, we expect it to fall back into recession in 2020. 

Crushing Recession: While Nigeria remains out of recession and has experienced paltry but stable growth in recent quarters, some sectors of the economy still remain in recession. If another recession does happen in 2020, it could be as crushing if not worse than what was experienced in 2016.

The consumer was still in recession – as indicated by its proxy, wholesale and retail trade, which has contracted in the last three quarters. It is in part due to the fragility of the economy coupled with the double hit from the lower oil price and COVID-19, that we are significantly cutting our growth forecast for Nigeria to -0.4% and 1% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, from 2.3% in 2020 and 2021 previously.

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More devaluation: Apart from a likely recession, the fall in oil prices is also likely to trigger multiple devaluations for the economy. Just recently the CBN devalued the currency from N307 to N360 while BDC exchange rate went from N360/$1 to N380/$1. The analysts predicted there will be more devaluations and that the exchange rate could fall further to N450/$1. 

READ MORE: Finance Minister: Nigeria to go into recession if …

Two welcome outcomes of the current crisis are that it has spurred the authorities into quick action. On 20 March they 1) collapsed the multiple FX rates; and 2) devalued the naira at the investors and exporters (I&E) window to NGN380/$1, from NGN365/$1 previously. The central bank rate has been adjusted to NGN360/$1, from NGN306/$1. As expected, the devaluation fell short of its fair value (NGN410/$1, by our estimate). The currency of another oil exporter, the Kazakh tenge (KZT), which in past years has been a lead indicator for the naira, suggests the NGN/$1 rate should be closer to 450, than to 400. 

What this means: Nigeria fell to a crushing recession in 2016 also triggered by a fall in oil prices. Unlike that episode, the violence at the creeks also distributed oil production worsening Nigeria’s situation. This time around, the Coronavirus pandemic is dealing a similar double blow on the economy making it likely that we could face another recession.  

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  • For business, the impact could yet again be devastating to their revenues and bottom lines.  
  • Input prices will skyrocket increasing their cost of doing business and competitiveness. Despite this, they might find it difficult to increase sales. 
  • On-going projects will need to be reviewed and some if not many will go bust.  
  • The purchasing power of Nigerians will be severely impacted as their GDP Per Capita is reduced. Before the devaluation, the minimum wage was $83, it is now about $76 and could fall further if the analyst prediction comes through. 
  • Job losses could also mount significantly as small businesses and manufacturing firms cut jobs to adjust to the new reality.  

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Nairametrics Research team tracks, collates, maintains and manages a rich database of macro-economic and micro-economic data from Nigeria and Africa. Our analysts share some of the data collated on Nairametrics, using formats such as docs, tables and charts etc. The team also publishes research based analysis as articles on a regular basis.

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Currencies

Naira strengthens at NAFEX window despite 61% drop in dollar supply

The exchange rate between the naira and the dollar appreciated marginally closing at N393.35/$1.

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Naira falls across forex markets as businesses resume after public holidays

On January 19, 2021, the exchange rate between the naira and the dollar appreciated marginally closing at N393.35/$1 at the NAFEX (I&E Window) where forex is traded officially.

This is as dollar supply dropped by 61% with lower demand.

Also, the exchange rate at the black market where forex traded unofficially maintained stability at N475/$1. The exchange rate at the parallel market closed at N475/$1 on the previous trading day of January 18, 2021.

This is as the Central Bank of Nigeria sustains its intervention across the foreign exchange markets to meet the needs of manufacturers and end-users who need dollars for their medical trips, school fees payments, travel allowances, and others.

The apex bank has also resumed its dollar sales to Bureau De Change operators.

Specta

The exchange rate disparity between the parallel market and the official market is about N81.65, representing a 17.2% devaluation differential.

The Naira appreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Tuesday, closing at N393.35/$1. This represents a 48 kobo gain when compared to the N393.83/$1 that it closed on the previous trading day.

  • The opening indicative rate was N393.96 to a dollar on Tuesday, representing an 11 kobo gain when compared to the N394.07 that was recorded on Monday, January 18, 2021.
  • The N396 to a dollar was the highest rate during intra-day trading before it closed at N393.35 to a dollar. It also sold for as low as N390/$1 during intra-day trading.
  • Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window declined by 61% on Tuesday, January 19, 2021.
  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover dropped from $69 million on Monday, January 18, 2021, to $26.83 million on Tuesday, January 19, 2021.
  • The average daily forex sale for last week was about $169.93 million, which represents a huge increase from the $34.5 million that was recorded the previous week.
  • The exchange rate is still being affected by low oil prices, dollar scarcity, a backlog of forex demand, and a shaky economy that has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
  • There are fears that the exchange rate at the black market might be under pressure in the coming weeks as importers scramble for dollars to meet their demands.

Oil price steady rise

Brent crude oil price is currently at $54.88 per barrel on Monday, as it moves towards the $60 mark, a strong sign that global demand could sustain price increases in 2021.

  • Nigeria’s crude oil price benchmark for 2020 was $40 while it projected an oil production output of 1.8 million barrels per day.
  • Nigeria has a production capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day but is subject to OPEC’s crude oil production cuts, which are expected to help sustain higher oil prices.
  • The higher oil prices and steady production output have positively impacted Nigeria’s external reserves, rising sharply to $36.304 million according to central bank data dated January 14, 2020.
  • This is the highest level since July 2020 and a sign that higher oil prices and steady output levels may be contributing significantly to Nigeria’s foreign exchange position.

Nigeria rising external reserves

  • The external reserve has risen to $36.3 billion as of January 15, 2021, suggesting that the government may have taken receipt of the $1-1.5 billion World Bank Loan.
  • The external reserves have increased by $1 billion since December 31, 2020, when it closed the year at $35.3 billion.
  • The unification of the exchange rate was previously cited as a major requirement for receiving the world bank facility.
  • Nigeria needs the external reserves to hit $40 billion if it is to adequately meet some of the pent up demand that has piled up since 2020 when oil prices crashed and the pandemic caused major economic lockdowns.

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Currencies

Daily Parallel Market Exchange Rate – ₦470/$1

The US dollar closed at ₦470/US$1 in the parallel market

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Forex, NIGERIA: Daily Parallel Market, Exchange Rate

The exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar for today (Tuesday, January 19th 2021), closed at 470/US$1 in the parallel market. The rate had also closed at 470/US$1 on Monday, January 18th 2021.

  • Naira:470
  • Dollar: $1
  • Date: January 19th, 2021

The exchange rate between the naira and the British pound sterling closed at ₦630/₤1 on Tuesday, January 19th 2021. The rate had closed at ₦630/₤1 on Monday, January 18th 2021.

  • Naira: ₦630
  • Pounds Sterling: ₤1
  • Date: January 19th, 2021

Explore Economic Research Data From Nairametrics on Nairalytics

The exchange rate between the naira and the European euro closed at ₦575/€1 on Tuesday, January 19th 2021. The rate had also closed at ₦575/€1 on Monday, January 18th 2021.

  • Naira: ₦575
  • Euro: €1
  • Date: January 19th, 2021

Activity: US Dollar closed at 470/US$1 in the parallel market

Specta

READ ALSO: The risk of buying Forex at black market rate of N460/$1 

DateCurrencyBuy(AM)Sell(AM)Buy(PM)Sell(PM)Volatility
1/19/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/19/2021Pounds625630625630Low
1/19/2021Euro570575570575Low
1/18/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/18/2021Pounds625630625630Low
1/18/2021Euro570575570575Low
1/15/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/15/2021Pounds620625620625Low
1/15/2021Euro565570565570Low
1/14/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/14/2021Pounds620625620625Low
1/14/2021Euro565570565570Low
1/13/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/13/2021Pounds620625620625Low
1/13/2021Euro565570565570Low
1/12/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/12/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/12/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/11/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/11/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/11/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/8/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/8/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/8/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/7/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/7/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/7/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/6/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/6/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/6/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/5/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/5/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/5/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/4/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/4/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/4/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/1/2021Dollar455460455460Low
1/1/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/1/2021Euro560565560565Low
12/31/2020Dollar455460455460Low
12/31/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/31/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/30/2020Dollar455460455460Low
12/30/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/30/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/29/2020Dollar455460455460Low
12/29/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/29/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/28/2020Dollar455460455460Low
12/28/2020Pounds610615610615low
12/28/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/25/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/25/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/25/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/24/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/24/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/24/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/23/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/23/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/23/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/22/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/22/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/22/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/21/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/21/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/21/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/18/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/18/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/18/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/17/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/17/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/17/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/16/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/16/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/16/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/15/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/15/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/15/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/14/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/14/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/14/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/11/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/11/2020 0:00Pounds610615610615Low
12/11/2020 0:00Euro560565560565Low
12/10/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/10/2020 0:00Pounds610615610615Low
12/10/2020 0:00Euro560565560565Low
12/9/2020 0:00Dollar470475470475Low
12/9/2020 0:00Pounds605610605610Low
12/9/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/8/2020 0:00Dollar470475470475Low
12/8/2020 0:00Pounds605610605610Low
12/8/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/7/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/7/2020 0:00Pounds615620615620Low
12/7/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/4/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/4/2020 0:00Pounds615620615620Low
12/4/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/3/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/3/2020 0:00Pounds615620615620Low
12/3/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/2/2020 0:00Dollar485495485495Low
12/2/2020 0:00Pounds630635630635Low
12/2/2020 0:00Euro570575570575Low
12/1/2020 0:00Dollar485495485495Low
12/1/2020 0:00Pounds630635630635Low
12/1/2020 0:00Euro570575570575Low
11/30/2020Dollar485495485495Low
11/30/2020Pounds630635630635Low
11/30/2020Euro565570565570Low
11/27/2020Dollar485490485490Low
11/27/2020Pounds615620615620Low
11/27/2020Euro565570565570Low
11/26/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/26/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/26/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/25/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/25/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/25/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/24/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/24/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/24/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/23/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/23/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/23/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/20/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/20/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/20/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/19/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/19/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/19/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/18/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/18/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/18/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/17/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/17/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/17/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/16/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/16/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/16/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/13/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/13/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/13/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/12/2020 0:00Dollar455460455460Low
11/12/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/12/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/11/2020 0:00Dollar455460455460Low
11/11/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/11/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/10/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/10/2020 0:00Pounds583587583587Low
11/10/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/9/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/9/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/9/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/6/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/6/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/6/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/5/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/5/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/5/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/4/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/4/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/4/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/3/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/3/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/3/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/2/2020 0:00Dollar457460457460Low
11/2/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/2/2020 0:00Euro530535530535Low
10/30/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/30/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/29/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/29/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/28/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/28/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/27/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/27/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/27/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/26/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/26/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/26/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/23/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/23/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/22/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/22/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/22/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/21/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/21/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/21/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/20/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/20/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/20/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/19/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/19/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/19/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/16/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/16/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/16/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/15/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/15/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/15/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/14/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/14/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/14/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/13/2020Dollar453458455460Low
10/13/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/13/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/12/2020 0:00Dollar452458452458Low
10/12/2020 0:00Pounds580585580585Low
10/12/2020 0:00Euro530535530535Low
10/9/2020 0:00Dollar452457452457Low
10/9/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
10/9/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
10/8/2020 0:00Dollar452457452457Low
10/8/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
10/8/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
10/7/2020 0:00Dollar452457452457Low
10/7/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
10/7/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
10/6/2020 0:00Dollar452457452457Low
10/6/2020 0:00Pounds580585580585Low
10/6/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
10/5/2020 0:00Dollar452455452455Low
10/5/2020 0:00Pounds570580570580Low
10/5/2020 0:00Euro540545540545Low
10/2/2020 0:00Dollar460465460465Low
10/2/2020 0:00Pounds575585575585Low
10/2/2020 0:00Euro530540530540Low
10/1/2020 0:00Dollar460465460465Low
10/1/2020 0:00Pounds575585575585Low
10/1/2020 0:00Euro530540530540Low
9/30/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/30/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/29/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/29/2020Pounds565575570580Low
9/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/28/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/28/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/25/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/25/2020Pounds565575565575Low
9/25/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/24/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/24/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/24/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/23/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/23/2020Pounds580585580585Low
9/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/22/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/22/2020Pounds575585575580Low
9/22/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/21/2020Dollar453455450455Low
9/21/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/21/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/18/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/18/2020Pounds575595575595Low
9/18/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/17/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/17/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/17/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/16/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/16/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/16/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/15/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/15/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/15/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/14/2020Dollar445455445455Low
9/14/2020Pounds560575560575Low
9/14/2020Euro515525515525Low
9/11/2020 0:00Dollar450455450455Low
9/11/2020 0:00Pounds555565555565Low
9/11/2020 0:00Euro525530525530Low
9/10/2020 0:00Dollar455460455460Low
9/10/2020 0:00Pounds545560545560Low
9/10/2020 0:00Euro525530525530Low
9/9/2020 0:00Dollar430440430440Low
9/9/2020 0:00Pounds540555540555Low
9/9/2020 0:00Euro500510500510Low
9/8/2020 0:00Dollar435440435440Low
9/8/2020 0:00Pounds540550540550Low
9/8/2020 0:00Euro505515505515Low
9/7/2020 0:00Dollar435440435440Low
9/7/2020 0:00Pounds525530525530Low
9/7/2020 0:00Euro505515505515Low
9/4/2020 0:00Dollar425440425440Low
9/4/2020 0:00Pounds560580560580Low
9/4/2020 0:00Euro505515505515Low
9/3/2020 0:00Dollar425440425440Low
9/3/2020 0:00Pounds560580560580Low
9/3/2020 0:00Euro520535505515High
9/2/2020 0:00Dollar425440425440Low
9/2/2020 0:00Pounds570580560580Low
9/2/2020 0:00Euro535540520535Low
9/1/2020 0:00Dollar462465435440High
9/1/2020 0:00Pounds565575570580Low
9/1/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
8/31/2020Dollar463470460465High
8/31/2020Pounds585595580590Low
8/31/2020Euro540545540545Low
8/28/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/28/2020Pounds580595580595Low
8/28/2020Euro545552545552Low
8/27/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/27/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/27/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/26/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/26/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/26/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/25/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/25/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/25/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/24/2020Dollar473477473477Low
8/24/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/24/2020Euro542550542550Low
8/21/2020Dollar474477474477Low
8/21/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/21/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/20/2020Dollar475478473477Low
8/20/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/20/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/19/2020Dollar475480475480Low
8/19/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/19/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/18/2020Dollar477480477480Low
8/18/2020Pounds575580575580Low
8/18/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/17/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/17/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/17/2020Euro525535525535Low
8/14/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/14/2020Pounds570580570580Low
8/14/2020Euro525535520535Low
8/13/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/13/2020Pounds570575565575Low
8/13/2020Euro525530520530Low
8/12/2020 0:00Dollar470475470475Low
8/12/2020 0:00Pounds570575570575Low
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29/08/2019 00:00Euro392398392398Low
28/08/2019 00:00Pounds444450440445Low
28/08/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
28/08/2019 00:00Euro392396392398Low
27/08/2019 00:00Pounds444450444450Low
27/08/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
27/08/2019 00:00Euro394400393398Low
26/08/2019 00:00Pounds442447443448Low
26/08/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
26/08/2019 00:00Euro392397393397Low
23/08/2019 00:00Pounds440445440445Low
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23/08/2019 00:00Euro390397390397Low
22/08/2019 00:00Pounds445450440445Low
22/08/2019 00:00Dollar357359358360Low
22/08/2019 00:00Euro393398390397Low
21/08/2019 00:00Pounds447452445450Low
21/08/2019 00:00Dollar358360357359Low
21/08/2019 00:00Euro392398393398Low
20/08/2019 00:00Pounds450455447452Low
20/08/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
20/08/2019 00:00Euro395400392398Low
19/08/2019 00:00Pounds450455450455Low
19/08/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
19/08/2019 00:00Euro395400395400Low
16/08/2019 00:00Pounds451455450455Low
16/08/2019 00:00Dollar357360358360Low
16/08/2019 00:00Euro397402395400Low
15/08/2019 00:00Pounds450455451455Low
15/08/2019 00:00Dollar357360357360Low
15/08/2019 00:00Euro398403397402Low
14/08/2019 00:00Pounds450455450455Low
14/08/2019 00:00Dollar357360357360Low
14/08/2019 00:00Euro398403398403Low
9/8/2019 0:00Pounds450455450455Low
9/8/2019 0:00Dollar357360357360Low
9/8/2019 0:00Euro398404398403Low
8/8/2019 0:00Pounds450455450455Low
8/8/2019 0:00Dollar357360357360Low
8/8/2019 0:00Euro398403398404Low
7/8/2019 0:00Pounds453458450455Low
7/8/2019 0:00Dollar357360357360Low
7/8/2019 0:00Euro398403398403Low
6/8/2019 0:00Pounds457460452458Low
6/8/2019 0:00Dollar358360357360Low
6/8/2019 0:00Euro400404400403Low
5/8/2019 0:00Pounds458462457461Low
5/8/2019 0:00Dollar358360358360Low
5/8/2019 0:00Euro400405400405Low
2/8/2019 0:00Pounds458462458462Low
2/8/2019 0:00Dollar358360358360Low
2/8/2019 0:00Euro400405400405Low
1/8/2019 0:00Pounds458462458462Low
1/8/2019 0:00Dollar358360358360Low
1/8/2019 0:00Euro402405402405Low
31/07/2019 00:00Pounds458463458463Low
31/07/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
31/07/2019 00:00Euro403407403407Low
30/07/2019 00:00Pounds458463458463Low
30/07/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
30/07/2019 00:00Euro403407403407Low
29/07/2019 00:00Pounds458461458463Low
29/07/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
29/07/2019 00:00Euro402406403407Low
26/07/2019 00:00Pounds459463458461Low
26/07/2019 00:00Dollar358361358360Low
26/07/2019 00:00Euro403406401405Low
25/07/2019 00:00Pounds459463459463Low
25/07/2019 00:00Dollar358361358361Low
25/07/2019 00:00Euro403407403406Low
24/07/2019 00:00Pounds459463459463Low
24/07/2019 00:00Dollar358361358361Low
24/07/2019 00:00Euro404407403407Low
23/07/2019 00:00Pounds460464459463Low
23/07/2019 00:00Dollar359361358361Low
23/07/2019 00:00Euro406410404407Low
22/07/2019 00:00Pounds459463459463Low
22/07/2019 00:00Dollar358360359361Low
22/07/2019 00:00Euro406410406410Low
19/07/2019 00:00Pounds459463459463Low
19/07/2019 00:00Pounds358360358360Low
19/07/2019 00:00Pounds406410406410Low
18/07/2019 00:00Pounds458462459463Low
18/07/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
18/07/2019 00:00Euro403407406410Low
17/07/2019 00:00Pounds458462458462Low
17/07/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
17/07/2019 00:00Euro403407403407Low
16/07/2019 00:00Pounds460463458462Low
16/07/2019 00:00Dollar359361358360Low
16/07/2019 00:00Euro405408403407Low
13/07/2019 00:00Pounds460464460463Low
13/07/2019 00:00Dollar359361359361Low
13/07/2019 00:00Euro405410405408Low
12/7/2019 0:00Pounds458463460464Low
12/7/2019 0:00Dollar359361359361Low
12/7/2019 0:00Euro404407405410Low
11/7/2019 0:00Pounds458463458462Low
11/7/2019 0:00Dollar359362359361Low
11/7/2019 0:00Euro402407405410Low
10/7/2019 0:00Pounds458463458463Low
10/7/2019 0:00Dollar359361358361Low
10/7/2019 0:00Euro401406402405Low
9/7/2019 0:00Pounds458465457465Low
9/7/2019 0:00Dollar359362359362Low
9/7/2019 0:00Euro401405402405Low
8/7/2019 0:00Pounds458463460465Low
8/7/2019 0:00Dollar359362359362Low
8/7/2019 0:00Euro401405401405Low
5/7/2019 0:00Pounds458463458463Low
5/7/2019 0:00Dollar359362359362Low
5/7/2019 0:00Euro401405401405Low
4/7/2019 0:00Pounds458463458463Low
4/7/2019 0:00Dollar359362359362Low
4/7/2019 0:00Euro401405400405Low
3/7/2019 0:00Pounds458464458463Low
3/7/2019 0:00Dollar359361359362Low
3/7/2019 0:00Euro401405401405Low
2/7/2019 0:00Pounds458462458463Low
2/7/2019 0:00Dollar359361359361Low
2/7/2019 0:00Euro398402400404Low
1/7/2019 0:00Pounds458462458462Low
1/7/2019 0:00Dollar358360359361Low
1/7/2019 0:00Euro400403398403Low
28/06/2019 00:00Pounds457460457462Low
28/06/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
28/06/2019 00:00Euro398402400403Low
27/06/2019 00:00Pounds458462458462Low
27/06/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
27/06/2019 00:00Euro398402398402Low
26/06/2019 00:00Pounds458463458462Low
26/06/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
26/06/2019 00:00Euro398402400403Low
25/06/2019 00:00Pounds458464458464Low
25/06/2019 00:00Dollar358361358361Low
25/06/2019 00:00Euro400403398402Low
24/06/2019 00:00Pounds458464460465Low
24/06/2019 00:00Dollar358361359361Low
24/06/2019 00:00Euro398402398403Low
21/06/2019 00:00Pounds460465458464Low
21/06/2019 00:00Dollar358361358361Low
21/06/2019 00:00Euro398402398402Low
20/06/2019 00:00Pounds460465468462Low
20/06/2019 00:00Dollar358361358361Low
20/06/2019 00:00Euro398402400403Low
19/06/2019 00:00Pounds460465460465Low
19/06/2019 00:00Dollar358361358361Low
19/06/2019 00:00Euro398401398402Low
18/06/2019 00:00Pounds460465462465Low
18/06/2019 00:00Dollar359361358361Low
18/06/2019 00:00Euro400403400405Low
17/06/2019 00:00Pounds462467462468Low
17/06/2019 00:00Dollar358361358361Low
17/06/2019 00:00Euro400404400404Low
14/06/2019 00:00Pounds426467426467Low
14/06/2019 00:00Dollar358361358361Low
14/06/2019 00:00Euro400404400404Low
13/06/2019 00:00Pounds467471462467Low
13/06/2019 00:00Dollar358361358361Low
13/06/2019 00:00Euro400404400404Low
12/6/2019 0:00Pounds468471467471Low
12/6/2019 0:00Dollar358361358361Low
12/6/2019 0:00Euro400404400404Low
11/6/2019 0:00Pounds465470467471Low
11/6/2019 0:00Dollar358361359361Low
11/6/2019 0:00Euro400403399402Low
10/6/2019 0:00Pounds468472468472Low
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10/6/2019 0:00Euro404400400404Low
7/6/2019 0:00Pounds469473467471Low
7/6/2019 0:00Dollar358361358360Low
7/6/2019 0:00Euro400403398402Low
6/6/2019 0:00Pounds468472465470Low
6/6/2019 0:00Dollar358360358361Low
6/6/2019 0:00Euro398402403400Low
3/6/2019 0:00Pounds468472468472Low
3/6/2019 0:00Dollar358360358361Low
3/6/2019 0:00Euro398402398402Low
31/05/2019 00:00Pounds465470470474Low
31/05/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
31/05/2019 00:00Euro397402400403Low
30/05/2019 00:00Pounds470474470474Low
30/05/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
30/05/2019 00:00Euro400403400403Low
28/05/2019 00:00Pounds470474470474Low
28/05/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
28/05/2019 00:00Euro400403400403Low
27/05/2019 00:00Pounds470474470474Low
27/05/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
27/05/2019 00:00Euro400403400404Low
24/05/2019 00:00Pounds470474470474Low
24/05/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
24/05/2019 00:00Euro400405400405Low
23/05/2019 00:00Pounds470474472475Low
23/05/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
23/05/2019 00:00Euro400405400405Low
22/05/2019 00:00Pounds472475472475Low
22/05/2019 00:00Dollar358350358360Low
22/05/2019 00:00Euro400405400405Low
21/05/2019 00:00Pounds472475472473Low
21/05/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
21/05/2019 00:00Euro400405400405Low
20/05/2019 00:00Pounds472475472475Low
20/05/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
20/05/2019 00:00Euro400405400405Low
17/05/2019 00:00Pounds472475472475Low
17/05/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
17/05/2019 00:00Euro400405400404Low
16/05/2019 00:00Pounds472475472475Low
16/05/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
16/05/2018 00:00Euro400404400404Low
15/05/2019 00:00Pounds470475470475Low
15/05/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
15/05/2019 00:00Euro400404400404Low
13/05/2019 00:00Pounds470475470475Low
13/05/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
13/05/2019 00:00Euro400404400405Low
10/5/2019 0:00Pounds470475470475Low
10/5/2019 0:00Dollar358360358360Low
10/5/2019 0:00Euro400405400405Low
9/5/2019 0:00Pounds470475470475Low
9/5/2019 0:00Dollar358360358360Low
9/5/2019 0:00Euro400405400405Low
29/04/2019 00:00Pounds470475470475Low
29/04/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
29/04/2019 00:00Euro400405400405Low
26/04/2019 00:00Pounds470475470475Low
26/04/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
26/04/2019 00:00Euro400405400405Low
25/04/2019 00:00Pounds470475470475Low
25/04/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
25/04/2019 00:00Euro400405400405Low
24/04/2019 00:00Pounds470475472476Low
24/04/2019 00:00Dollar358360358360Low
24/04/2019 00:00Euro400405400405Low
23/04/2019 00:00Pounds474478472476Low
23/04/2019 00:00Dollar355360358360Low
23/04/2019 00:00Euro390402400405Low
22/04/2019 00:00Pounds472476472476Low
22/04/2019 00:00Dollar357360358360Low
22/04/2019 00:00Euro400405400405Low
19/04/2019 00:00Pounds467471470475Low
19/04/2019 00:00Dollar355360357360Low
19/04/2019 00:00Euro395400402406Low
18/04/2019 00:00Pounds470475470475Low
18/04/2019 00:00Dollar357360357360Low
18/04/2019 00:00Euro402406402406Low
17/04/2019 00:00Pounds470475470475Low
17/04/2019 00:00Dollar357360357360Low
17/04/2019 00:00Euro402406402406Low
16/04/2019 00:00Pounds465470470475Low
16/04/2019 00:00Dollar360365357360Low
16/04/2019 00:00Euro400405402405Low

Data is collated from various black market dealers on the mainland and island parts of Lagos State where forex is sold. The price quoted daily on this page represents the average price obtained by our Research Team. Our prices are a guide and could be slightly different from the price you get when you eventually decide to buy or sell. This is a daily tracker and updated close of business. See table below for parallel market exchange rate dating to 2019.

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Naira gains at NAFEX window as external reserves increase by $1 billion

The exchange rate appreciated on Monday as external reserves cross $36.3 billion

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Dollar, Exchange rate, FOREX, NAFEX market turnover drop by 59%, Naira crashes to N470/$1 as currency uncertainty worsens 

On January 18, 2021, the exchange rate between the naira and the dollar appreciated closing at N393.83/$1 at the NAFEX (I&E Window) where forex is traded officially.

This is as Nigeria’s external reserves added $1 billion in 15 days to rise to $36.3 billion.

Also, the exchange rate at the black market where forex traded unofficially maintained stability at N475/$1. The exchange rate at the parallel market closed at N475/$1 on the previous trading day of January 14, 2021.

READ: CBN Governor says Nigeria’s external reserves sufficient to cover 7-months import

This is as the Central Bank of Nigeria sustains its intervention across the foreign exchange markets to meet the needs of manufacturers and end-users who need dollars for their medical trips, school fees payments, travel allowances, and others.

Specta

The apex bank has also resumed its dollar sales to Bureau De Change operators.

The exchange rate disparity between the parallel market and the official market is about N81.17, representing a 16.9% devaluation differential.

READ: CBN considers interest rate cut as trade, economy decline over Coronavirus

The Naira appreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Monday, closing at N393.83/$1. This represents an 84 kobo gain when compared to the N394.67/$1 that it closed on the previous trading day.

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  • The opening indicative rate was N394.07 to a dollar on Monday, representing a 95 kobo drop when compared to the N393.12 that was recorded on Friday, January 15, 2021.
  • The N415.76 to a dollar was the highest rate during intra-day trading before it closed at N393.83 to a dollar. It also sold for as low as N388/$1 during intra-day trading.
  • Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window increased by 71.2% on Monday, January 18, 2021.
  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover rose from $40.31 million on Friday, January 15, 2021, to $69 million on Monday, January 18, 2021.
  • The average daily forex sale for last week was about $169.93 million, which represents a huge increase from the $34.5 million that was recorded the previous week.
  • The exchange rate is still being affected by low oil prices, dollar scarcity, a backlog of forex demand, and a shaky economy that has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
  • There are fears that the exchange rate at the black market might be under pressure in the coming weeks as importers scramble for dollars to meet their demands.

READ: Nigeria’s External Reserves drop by $2.9 billion, hit 10-month low 

Oil price steady rise

Brent crude oil price is currently at $54.88 per barrel on Monday, as it moves towards the $60 mark, a strong sign that global demand could sustain price increases in 2021.

  • Nigeria’s crude oil price benchmark for 2020 was $40 while it projected an oil production output of 1.8 million barrels per day.
  • Nigeria has a production capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day but is subject to OPEC’s crude oil production cuts, which are expected to help sustain higher oil prices.
  • The higher oil prices and steady production output have positively impacted Nigeria’s external reserves, rising sharply to $36.304 million according to central bank data dated January 14, 2020.
  • This is the highest level since July 2020 and a sign that higher oil prices and steady output levels may be contributing significantly to Nigeria’s foreign exchange position.

READ: Nigeria’s external reserve drop by $261 million in 15 days, oil firms to sell forex to CBN 

Nigeria rising external reserves

  • The external reserve has risen to $36.3 billion as of January 15, 2021, suggesting that the government may have taken receipt of the $1-1.5 billion World Bank Loan.
  • The external reserves have increased by  $1 billion since December 31, 2020, when it closed the year at $35.3 billion.
  • The unification of the exchange rate was previously cited as a major requirement for receiving the world bank facility.
  • Nigeria needs the external reserves to hit $40 billion if it is to adequately meet some of the pent up demand that has piled up since 2020 when oil prices crashed and the pandemic caused major economic lockdowns.

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