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Access Bank, UBA, GTB, 7 others increase loans by N1.84 trillion in 9-month

Access Bank, UBA, GTB, 7 others increase loans by N1.84 trillion in 9-month

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Ten Nigerian Banks have increased their loan disbursement to customers by N1.84 trillion in the first three quarters of 2019. This is obtained in the third quarter financials of various banks released so far.  

According to the report, the gross loans by the ten Banks rose to N13.55 trillion in September 2019 compared to N11.70 trillion in December 2018. This means the banks increased their loans’ disbursement by 15.8% (N1.84 trillion).  

Breakdown of Loans’ Disbursed 

Specifically, the Ten Nigerian banks that have released their financials so far include Access Bank, First Bank, Zenith, UBA, GT Bank, Stanbic IBTC, Wema Bank, Unity, Sterling and Fidelity Bank.  

  • A look into the financials showed that Access Bank recorded the highest additional loan disbursement of N801.7 billion within the period under review (December 2018 to September 2019). The Bank’s loans and advances rose from N2.13 trillion in December 2018 to 2.93 trillion in September 2019. This represents a whopping 37% increase in loans.  
  • UBA ranks second with an additional loan disbursement of N254 billion, representing a 14% rise between December 2018 and September 2019.  
  • Fidelity Bank ranks third with an additional loan disbursement of N224.2 billion within the period.  
  • Zenith Bank’s additional loan disbursement stood at N219.9 billion, thereby increasing its total loans and advances from N1.82 trillion in December 2018 to N2.04 trillion in September 2019.  
  • GT Bank also increased its loans by N115.9 billion, representing a 9% increase in 9 months.  
  • Stanbic IBTC loan disbursement also rose by N101 billion, Unity Banks (N45.1 billion), First Bank (N37.9 billion), Wema (N34.7 billion) and Sterling (N14.07 billion).

 READ MORE: Disrupting Nigerian banks

CBN’s 65% Loan to Deposit Ratio  

While the Banks increased loans and advances within the nine months period, a further check into the financials showed that a cumulative sum of N2.52 trillion was received as a deposit. This means comparing it against the total N1.84 trillion loans disbursed for the same period, the loan to deposit ratio (LDR) across the Ten Banks stood at 73.1%.  

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  • A quick look at the CBN credit to the private sector shows that it rose by N2.51 trillion within the last nine months.  
  • Recall, that the Central Bank of Nigeria in a recent circular disclosed that the LDR target for all Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) has been reviewed upward from the initial 60% to 65%.  Also, all DMBs are to now attain a minimum LDR of 65% by December 31, 2019. 
  • Following the earlier September deadline, the CBN debited a combined sum of N499.1 billion from the vault of 12 banks to hold the cash at zero percent interest rates. This was regarded as a penalty for the Banks. Meanwhile, as reported on Nairametrics, the CBN has started to refund banks as they meet the loans to deposit ratio.  
  • According to the financials of the ten banks released so far, only two Banks have currently met the 65% loan to deposit ratio as of September 2019.
  • The analysis showed that only Fidelity and Sterling Bank currently have LDR above 70%%, while UBA, Zenith, Stanbic, GT Bank, Access Bank, Wema Bank, Unity and First Bank still post LDR below 65%. 

READ ALSO: Ahead of CBN’s policy implementation, Fidelity Bank’s LDR hits 80% 

 Some Downsides of the LDR’s Policy  

Despite the rise in loans disbursed by the Banks to the economy, recent concerns suggest the Central Bank is pushing the bank hard. Recently, the CBN issued another directive to cancel any requests from individuals or local companies for the purchase of Treasury Bills at Primary or OMO auctions. 

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  • Analysts believe the directive by the CBN may not be unrelated to the recent efforts to promote lending to the real sector by commercial banks. 
  • Following the new directive, there are indications that this may result in banks resorting to ingenious ways to meet these requirements, and this may have many unintended negative effects on the economy.  
  • Essentially, analysts believe banks will continue to explore other ways of meeting CBN’s requirements without significantly directing loans to the real sector.
  • Also, forcing banks to lend under the current macro-economic situation may again build up in non-performing loans and this could pose a risk to financial stability in the economy.  

Samuel is an Analyst with over 5 years experience. Connect with him via his twitter handle

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  1. Anonymous

    January 30, 2020 at 7:43 pm

    I need lon

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Guinness Nigeria Plc jostles to improve from its insipid 2020 financial year

In the 2021 financial year, the task before the company is to drive its strategic objectives to bring the company back to profitability.

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Baker Magunda, Guinness Nigeria Plc, Baileys, Why Guinness is a stock to pick - RenCap 

Guinness Nigeria Plc has started its 2021 financial year with a loss, just like the company did in 2020. However, this time, the value of the loss adds up to N841 million for the opening quarter. In 2020, it was N370 million, which set the tone for what eventually degenerated into a truly horrible and uninspiring financial year. A year that saw loss position in the aggregate 12 months period peak at N12.6billion.

READ: Brewery sector: A quarter to forget

READ: Guinness’ parent company expects alcohol sales to improve as restaurants and bars gradually reopen

Apparently, all that could possibly go wrong with Guinness, did go wrong. From what in retrospect, turned out to be an over-ambitious outlook at the start of the year, to the effects of not giving immense attention to controllable costs, rise in inflation with its resultant pressure in decreased consumer spending, and the crippling effects of the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic; no company could have asked for worse.

However, the horrendous performance was not peculiar to Guinness Nigeria alone. The results from its competitors, such as the International Breweries Plc, and Nigerian Breweries Plc, amid appalling industry figures recorded, proved that 2020 has been a tumultuous year indeed for all companies operating in the brewery manufacturing sector.

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READ: No trophy for International Breweries after bland Q2 results

The analysis of FY 2020

How poor was the 2020 FY performance of Guinness Nigeria and what can be inferred from its Q1 2021 reports? For a company in the habit of declaring dividends especially after the N5.5billion profit in 2019, how did the company move from that profit margin to a loss of N12.6billion just 12months after?

  • Profit declined by 129.1% from N5.5billion Profit after Tax in 2019 to N12.6billion Loss after Tax in 2020. This Steep decline was evident in all arrears from top-line to bottom.
  • Gross profit down by 16.9% to N33.33billion in 2020 as against N40.13billion reported in 2019
  • Revenue plunged 21% to N104.41billion in 2020, from N131.5billion generated in 2019.
  • Cost of sales did show some improvement, moving from the N91.4billion expended in 2019 to N71.1billion in 2020 – a 22% decrease.
  • Administrative cost continued the rising trajectory to N14.3billion in 2020 from N9.9billion in 2019.
  • Finance cost rose to N4.5billion from N2.6billion in 2019, while finance income declined from N750.9million to N301million in 2020.

READ: PZ incurs N1 billion in exchange rate loss 

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Speaking on 2020 results, Mr. Baker Magunda, Managing Director/CEO, Guinness Nigeria Plc said,

“The last quarter performance of fiscal 2020 was significantly impacted by restrictions due to COVID-19, exacerbating the already challenging economic environment. Closures of on-trade premises (bars, lounges, clubs, and dine-in restaurants), which represents the major part of the consumption occasion for our products and bans on celebratory occasions, impacted sales.

“Demand was also impacted by reduced consumer income, unemployment concerns due to the shutdown of a large number of businesses, and increases of VAT and excise throughout the year.”

READ: R.T. Briscoe declares N618.9 million loss in H1 2020, as sales of vehicles fall 

Magunda further explained that, “Distribution was impacted by the ban of inter-state, and in some cases intra-state travel. Although, Management worked diligently with regulatory authorities to minimize the impact, this hampered our distributors’ ability to restock and have our brands available for purchase.”

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The analysis of Q1 2021

In the 2021 financial year, the task before the company is to drive its strategic objectives to bring the company back to profitability. The Chairman, Mr Babatunde Abayomi Savage, recognizes that this would be no stroll in the park, as he affirmed that despite predictions that the coming year will be challenging globally due to the new normal, “we believe we have experienced our full share of the impact and are now geared to go back to profitability.”

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READ: MTN, Airtel, Glo, other Telcos’ operating costs drop to N1.756 trillion in 2019

The opening quarter for 2021 (July-September) saw improvements in sales volumes on the back of eased restrictions from the COVID-19 necessitated lockdown.

  • Revenue posted is N30.02billion, 11.64% increase from the N26.89billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2020.
  • However, Cost of sales worsened by 21.1%, increasing from N18.9billion in Q1 2020 to N23.01billion in Q1 2021.
  • Marketing and distribution expenses, as well as administration expenses, showed marginal reduction, depicting management interest in controlling these variables.

READ: Q1’20: Okomu Oil’s result is more proof that essentials always win

Bottomline

Generally speaking, results for the opening quarter show signs of improvement, but the tax component was the primary factor responsible for masking the progress obtained in Q1 and eroding promising signs.

With the gradual re-opening of its previously closed company buildings in Benin City, and the shift in focus from the largely underwhelming lager segment to investing more in spirits, it will be interesting to see how this impacts volumes and revenue in subsequent quarters, despite the apparent economic conditions.

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Why Treasury Bills at 2% is actually a good thing

While the current prevailing rate of 2% might not be good news for investors, the low rates could be better for the Nigerian economy.

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Implications of the new CBN stance on treasury bill sale to individuals, Nigerian Treasury Bills Market Witnessed Bullish Run on High Liquidity Last week

Latest stop rates from the Nigerian Treasury Bill auction held last week revealed some of the lowest rates for the nation’s T-Bills market in recent times. The 91-day bills had stop rates of 1% and the 182-day bills was also 1%. For the full year, the 364-day bills had an equally low rate of 2%. This is actually a good thing, as investors will become more creative, amongst other benefits.

If you were a frequent Treasury bills investor in the pre-COVID-19 era, you will most likely agree that one of the favorite markets for risk-averse investors, has taken a major dip over the past year. In 2019, the rate was as high as 13.029% – enough to give you a fighting chance with the equally high rate of inflation, as opposed to a savings account offering around 4%.

READ: FG liberalizes the Mining sector, grants 5 years tax concession to miners

However, while the current prevailing rate of 2% might not be good news for investors; theoretically, the low rates could be better for the Nigerian economy.

Double digits risk-free rates impede development

At the very basic level, having a risk-free investment that yields a guaranteed interest rate of about 15%, means that investors can put in their funds and fold their hands. Therefore, the option of making less risky investments become less alluring, as the lower rates can easily be mitigated by the relative safety of the principal (and return!) – something many businesses cannot boast of today.

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READ: NB Plc to raise additional N20 billion from its N100 billion Commercial Paper

Put simply, why should business owners risk employing people and possibly make losses, when they can invest in Treasury bills? After all, they too are exposed to the same inflation rate.

Unsurprisingly, this has contributed its own fair share in impeding the growth of the nation. Think about the percentage of the income of Nigerian financial institutions like banks that are from Treasury Bills. Conservatively, Nigerian PFA’s also have a significant percentage of their funds in Treasury bills – doing little and gaining little. It is always about the “cheapest to deliver.”

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READ: U.S public listed company allocates $425 million into Bitcoin

No society can effectively spur development with only safe investments, as it comes with its own benefits like creating more jobs, building the stock market, and ultimately strengthening the industries in the country.

‘Model’ economies have really low risk-free interest rates

Some of the largest economies like the US, Japan, and Germany are known to have some of the lowest rates for risk-free assets. Whilst their rates cannot also be isolated from their equally low borrowing costs, the facts are crystal clear.

From a demand and supply standpoint, at 15%, it means that what the government is willing to pay to get capital is high. This makes it even more expensive for the government to fund infrastructural development.

READ: Safest, regulated Cryptocurrency, Arcoin backed by U.S. Treasury securities

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From a private sector standpoint, it is by taking risks that angel investors emerge, companies get seed funding, and further development is enhanced. Without this development, very few jobs will be created. Interestingly, most of the countries with the highest amount of venture capitalist investments have some of the lowest rates for risk-free assets.

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How investments should be done

There is an old investment strategy known as “Carry Trade.” The way it works is simple – you borrow at a low-interest rate, convert the borrowed amount into another currency, and invest in assets that provide higher rates of return in that currency. If Treasury Bills offer such high rates, “foreign investments” of this nature will not aid in the overall development of the economy. As long as the exchange rate is stable, investors get to make a killing with no value-added. This is just one of the many lapses of investing in high risk-free assets.

READ: Crypto: Popular Hedge Fund, Grayscale record best quarter ever

With the rates low, people can now invest the way investment should be done. Investors will now be forced to be creative. Consequently, this will birth even further infrastructural developments. For example, with this rate sustained, mortgage-backed securities and other forms of infrastructural funding can now take place.

Though, it is not without its own limitations, keeping the free money low is always a better option.

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#ENDSARS Protests: Why this is different

The #ENDSARS is not just a protest about rogue police officers, it is larger than that and this is why.

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In June 2019, the Hong Kong Government revealed plans to implement a controversial law that allows the extradition of Hong Kong citizens to mainland China.  

As the government dithered, pockets of protests broke out, which triggered clashes with Policemen that most protesters viewed as excessive. Within days, protesters went from a few thousands to over 2 million, the largest in the history of Hong Kong.  

By the time the government decided to pull back the bill; the protesters, many of them young, were already demanding for more than just a withdrawal of the bill. They wanted the police investigated and prosecuted for using excessive force, amnesty for protesters, and a right to vote for all.  

The protests lasted for about 6 months only to be dissipated by social distancing requirements, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Before then, protesters had grounded the economy, which drove the Hong Kong economy into a recession and $3 billion in stimulus.  

Nigeria is experiencing its own version of protests similar to that of Hong Kong, except that it does not have any money to inject as stimulus. The latest protests were triggered by anger over the alleged violent killings and extortion by the controversial anti-robbery unit of the police, known as SARS or FSARS.  

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For years, young Nigerians, mostly via social media, have called for the unit to be disbanded and rogue elements in the force brought to justice. Despite repeated promises by the government, they have failed to heed to their demands, triggering a new wave of protests that has now spread across the country. 

From demanding an end to SARS, prosecution of rogue police officers, and reforms; Protesters are more emboldened, threatening to continue if all their demands are not met. The government is scrambling to contain a situation that is escalating and could dangerously metamorphose into violent clashes with authorities, leading to loss of lives and destruction of properties 

There is also fear that this week’s protest could be sustained for more days, if not weeksYou only need to look at the economy of the Nigerian Youth to understand why this is such a critical moment. 

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According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Youth unemployment is at an all-time high of 34.9%, making up 64.3% of total unemployed Nigerians. University students have also been at home for months, due to the 7 months ASUU strike.  

Their parents are also facing tougher economic conditions with inflation rate galloping past 13%, after multiple devaluations and the removal of fuel subsidy. It was just a matter of time for them to find a rallying point to vent their frustration. 

There is still a window for the government to deescalate tensions, and it is not just by accepting the terms of protesters on paper and making bogus pronouncements. Nigerian youths want concrete actions and it starts by making immediate changes in the leadership of the Police – the rogue unit in particular. Officers suspected of murdering innocent Nigerians need to be made to face justice.  

The government also needs to urgently resolve its dispute with the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) on the Integrated Payroll and Personnel Information System (IPPIS). Students and young Nigerians also need to be offered grants and palliatives to help them cushion the effects of an economic crunch that is in no way their making.  

Proceeds from the Nigerian Youth Investment Funds should be disbursed immediately to those who have applied. The government also needs to introduce student loan schemes for millions of Nigerian youths, who can’t afford to pay for quality university education.  

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The National Assembly also needs to introduce laws that protect young Nigerians from police brutality, status profiling and wrongful arrest. Investments in mega tech hubs across the country, establishment of recreation zones in major cities must be carried out by State Governments, to keep them engaged in activities that can better their lives.  

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No investor, local or foreign will put money in any country where its youths are in long-drawn protest with the governmentAs the economic cost of the protests for the last few days continues to mountthe negative effects could be more dire than a deeper recession. 

#ENDSARS does not just represent a protest against rogue Police officers; it is a symptom of the poor state of the economy, which for months has only gotten worse. Fortunately, the agitation can still be managed but time is running out.  

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