Recent data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that between the first quarter of 2018 and the second quarter of 2019, Nigeria had spent the total sum of N1.03 trillion to import used vehicles (popularly called Tokunbo) and Motorcycles (Okada) into the country.
According to the various NBS reports gathered, while importation has surged between the periods, used cars and motorcycle importation into Nigeria grew by 325%.
The Trends: According to the Bureau’s report, Nigeria’s import bill has been on the rise and this is largely reducing the country’s net trade balance (the balance of total export minus the import). For instance, in the foreign trade report released for Q2 2019, NBS stated that the performance of Nigeria’s trade was largely as a result of stronger growth in the value of imports far outpacing the value of exports which rose only marginally.
- Specifically, in the first quarter of 2018, used car importation gulped N29billion, while motorcycles importation was estimated at N38 billion.
- Meanwhile, fast forward to Q2 2019, used cars imported into Nigeria stood at a whooping N177.3 billion, while motorcycles importation grew to N111.9 billion.
- A closer look into the reports showed that Nigeria’s trade balance dropped from N831.6 billion in Q1 to N588.7 billion in Q2 2019. This implies the net trade balance reduced by N242.9 billion in just three months.
- Considering Nigeria’s import of N4 trillion in Q2 2019, it suggests used cars and motorcycle importation accounted for about 7% of the country’s total import. This also made used cars’ importation to rank the second most imported goods into Nigeria.
- It should be noted for motorcycles, as illustrated by NBS, Nigeria largely imported Completely Knocked Down (CKD) parts.
- Basically, CKD is fully disassembled item parts that are required to be assembled by the end-user or the reseller. Goods are shipped in CKD form to reduce freight charged on the basis of the space occupied by (volume of) the item.
- So, this means that for motorcycles, while assemblages are done in Nigeria, all the parts are imported from India and China.
Industry in tatters: Ride and Motorcycles or Bike hailing platforms are one of the two fastest-growing businesses in Nigeria. Globally, the popular ride-hailing platform, Uber, introduced its operation in 2009. Five years later (July 2014), it launched operations in Lagos State, Nigeria to make it the 4th City in Africa.
- As technology keeps evolving, so is the ride-hailing industry. Today, spread all over the country are Uber, Bolt, OgaTaxi, GidiCab and many others all competing in the ride-hailing industry. On the other hand, the Bike hailing platforms are equally worth the mention, with GoKada, Opay, Max.NG and so on.
- It is noteworthy to state that the industry expansion is indeed a welcome development as this creates thousands of jobs for Nigeria’s teeming population, however, this comes at another cost to the country.
- Nigeria’s automobile industry is still largely docile, while the industry expansion should indirectly grow the automobile manufacturing industry, the trillions being spent by the ride-hailing platforms are obviously flying overseas, specifically to U.S, India and China.
- One would wonder why Nigeria’s automobile industry has been at a standstill for many years.
- Further check shows that local production (cars assemblage) stood at 200,000 vehicles in 2018, while Nigeria imported 862,220 vehicles in the same period. This means Nigeria imported over 300% of what was locally produced.
- From the U.S only, Nigeria imported 627,055 vehicles in 2018, projected to hit 800,000 vehicles by the end of 2019.
Recall, in 2014 the Federal Government increased import tariffs and duties on imported new and used vehicles to as high as 70%, while reducing tariffs on semi-knocked down and complete knocked down vehicles and assembly machinery to a range of 0 to 10%.
- Five years later, the rigmarole still lingers as used car and motorcycle importation gulp trillions of naira. Although, President Muhammed Buhari just made moves to lure Toyota car manufacturer to set up manufacturing plant in Nigeria during his recent event trip to Japan.
More Problems: Importation appears to be one of the major banes of the Nigerian economy. This partly explains why car importation has also surged over the years. The figure provided by the bureau, to say the least, omitted smuggled cars, while brand new cars are reported separately. Smuggled items and the importation of sub-standard goods have led to the death of several companies.
- Recently, the CBN announced that it has concluded plans to close the bank accounts of smugglers. While this is a step in the right direction, it may not curb the importation of used cars.
- To further drive home its stance, the CBN and the federal government agreed to partially shut the borders.
- Another development on the sideline is that the controversy that trailed the Nigerian 9th National assembly plan to import Sports Utility Vehicles (SUV) amounting to N5.5bn for the senators took another twist. On Wednesday, the Senate Majority Leader, Abdullahi Yahaya, condemned the public outcry over the purchase of the SUV to 109 senators. The Majority Leader reportedly disclosed:
“What is the problem there. It is an insult to say that a senator of the Federal Republic cannot ride a jeep in Nigeria. It is an insult.
“The N5.5bn is from the national Assembly fund and it is budgeted for every Assembly which they will pay back at the end of the tenure. I was a permanent secretary, I know what ministers get, we cannot even compare ourselves with ministers because we are higher than the minister.
“For you to say that a senator of the Federal Republic cannot drive a jeep today, come on, that is an insult. Go and tell the people that the work that we do, is more than the work of ministers. The weight that is on me today there is no minister of the Federal Republic that has it,” The Senate leader stated.
There is no gainsaying that, the Nigerian economy is largely import-dependent, and for now, even the lawmakers and the government show no signs of contributing to solving import menace. Recently, Nigerians have raised concerns about why political office holders cannot be mandated to use locally assembled vehicles.
One thing is clear, the continued rise in importation of used vehicles will continue to affect innovation in the automobile industry, and this also further leads to more pressure on the country’s foreign reserves which has depleted in recent months.
Buy what? Dangote vs BUA Cement
Dangote Cement has a market capitalization of N3.65 trillion, while BUA posts a N2.49 trillion capitalization, but does size win?
I want to review the performance of the largest quoted companies in Nigeria.
On the Nigerian Stock Exchange, they don’t come any bigger than Dangote Cement (Dangote) and BUA Cement (BUA). Only MTNN stands with both cement companies in terms of market capitalization. Dangote and BUA are both blue-chip companies, in the same sector and both enjoy federal import protection, they also both serve a local market with huge demand for cement.
Which is a better investment? Let us assume I have N100,000.00 (One Hundred Thousand Naira,) which should I buy? Let us review both stocks with FY 2020 results they posted. For consistency, I am going to use my trading view terminal numbers.
First, we talk about capitalization, (Market cap is the number of shares issued x market value of shares ). Dangote Cement has a market capitalization of N3.65 trillion, while BUA posts a N2.49 trillion capitalization. Does size win? Dangote is bigger? Not yet!
With N100,000 I can buy about 465 shares of Dangote at N215 a share and 1,360 shares of BUA at N73.50 per share. Is BUA cheaper? do we have a winner? Not quite. Let us dig deeper.
Dangote Cement posted a Net Income figure of N276 billion, if we divide this earning by the number of issued shares which is 17 billion, we get an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of N16.14, so every share of Dangote Cement earns (not pays) the investors N16. Similarly, the Earning Per Share of BUA is N2.0
Thus when I buy Dangote Cement N215 per share, I am buying 16 times the earnings of Dangote. We can simplify this by simply comparing the price I pay per share of Dangote to the EPS of Dangote (Price to Earnings Ratio), thus I invest my cash of N215 to buy 16 times the earnings of Dangote, thus the Price to Earnings Ratio of Dangote is 13.31 (P/E). Using the same calculation, the price for each earnings of BUA (the P.E.) is 35.38. This means even though I am paying more cash for each share of Dangote, I am paying less to buy the earnings of Dangote, thus Dangote is cheaper than BUA.
So our first milestone is reached, we have used the Net Income, Market Price, and Number of Issued shared to get the Earnings Per Share, we have then determined what amount of earnings we are buying to determine which stock is at a bargain.
Let us look at the earnings that will be paid in cash. Remember, Earnings, is just the Net Income of Dangote, we as equity holders have the opportunity to share in any portion of the Net Income.
Dangote in 2020 paid out from earnings N272.69 billion as dividends, this translates to about N16 per share or in terms of returns 7.44%. We get this Dividend Yield return by comparing the dividend paid to the market price per share (D/P). BUA also in 2020 paid out N59.26 billion as dividends from earnings, this translates to a dividend yield of 2.81%.
So, if I invested N100,000 in shares of Dangote Cement, I would earn a cash return of 7.44%, if I did the same with BUA I would earn a cash return of 2.81%.
Let us go a bit deeper…
When you buy a stock, you are buying into the earnings and cash flow. Dangote Cement in 2020 earned N276 billion and paid N272 billion as dividends meaning they retained about N3 billion for that FY while generating over N248b in Free Cash Flow. Similarly, BUA earned a net N71.52 billion, paid out N59 billion in dividends, retained N19 billion but posted a negative Free Cash Flow of (N95.49 billion). Should BUA cement have simply used that cash to finance working capital rather than paying it as dividends? Perhaps. Let us speak more of Cash flow.
Cash retained is cash not paid to you the investor. You have to ask how well your company is utilizing that cash retained. Should it all be paid out as dividends? Or retained in the company to fund expansion and growth?
Look at it this way, if Federal Government Bonds were offering a Yield of 15% and we see that Dangote is offering a yield of 7.44%, then as shareholders you should demand that Dangote pays more cash to you to allow you to invest in FGN bonds because you get a higher return (at lower risk). The point is any company retaining cash or paying cash at a lower yield than the market is hurting the investors, who are missing the opportunity of investing higher elsewhere.
Let us score both company managers by how well they have managed the revenues and capital of the companies
|Return on Assets %||Return on Equity %||Return on Invested Capital %||EBITA Margin %||Net Margin %||Debt to Assets||Long Term Debt to Assets|
Across the board, the management of Dangote Cement has done a better job when compared to BUA Cement in managing the assets of the company. Dangote Return on invested capital is higher with a much lower recourse to debt and of course a higher FCF number.
Overall, on Earning, Returns and Efficiency, it appears Dangote Cement posts better fundamentals…
Do follow @FinPlanKaluAja1
This is not investment advice, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Speak with your adviser before investing. Equity is risky.
Is something fishy going on at Custodian Plc?
Custodian stock hit a year high just as it announced a Convertible Loan Instrument set to be approved at its AGM.
Custodian Plc, one of the largest insurance companies in Nigeria is currently trading at a new year high of N7.10 and is up 21% year to date. Nairametrics Blurb team has in recent days noticed an upsurge in its share price especially since the company announced its AGM.
As we pen this article, about 2.9 million units have exchanged hand at a share price of N7.
The stock is included in the Pension Index and by some measure quite illiquid. It is also one of the stocks recommended in our Premium Service Stock Select Newsletter thus the need for further introspection.
Custodian Investment AGM
Typically, when companies announce AGMs we are keenly curious as this is where decisions that can ultimately affect shareholders (especially smaller retail investors) are approved.
In its recent filings, the company stated as follows in item 10.
That the Board of Directors of the Company be and is hereby authorised to:
(a) raise the Naira equivalent of up to $15,000,000.00 (Fifteen Million US Dollars), as additional capital through a convertible loan instrument;
(b) convert the loan in the Naira equivalent of up to $15,000,000.00 (Fifteen Million US Dollars) into shares in the Company (the “Conversion Shares”) at a conversion price, being the higher of N6 per share or the 12-month historical average daily share price of the Company derived from the Daily Official List of The Nigerian Stock Exchange (for the period ending on March 23, 2021), subject to adjustment upon the occurrence of certain adjustment events;
(c) allot the Converted Shares to the Lender upon the exercise by the Lender of its right to convert the Loan into shares in the Company, subject to applicable law; and
(d) take steps necessary or reasonably desirable to give effect to the foregoing resolutions and for effecting any transactions pursuant thereto, including the appointment of professional advisers, and the obtention of relevant regulatory approvals.
What this means?
In simple English, the directors of Custodian are seeking the approval of its shareholders to borrow $15 million (N6.1 billion) in convertible loan instrument.
A convertible loan instrument is simply a loan that you can convert into shares if the lender so wishes. The share price for conversion are predetermined and in this case, they stated N6 per share or the 12-month historical average daily share price of the company’s stock.
If the lender does decide to convert the loans to shares at the current share price of N6 per share, it means about 1 billion shares will be offered to the lender, an equivalent of 17.4% of the total outstanding shares of the company. This loan is in effect, a potential dilution of existing shareholders of the company if it is approved at the AGM.
So why is the company seeking a convertible loan or even diluting its shareholders?
Fishing around for why
Typically when a company decides to raise money via a convertible loan instrument, they are looking for lower interest rates, debt that avoids the burden of periodic repayment, and/or looking to delay when the actual equity is issued. There are also tax considerations at play but not as significant as the ones mentioned above.
Except, Custodian is looking to purchase another asset, after it bought UPDC, we do not understand why it will be looking to raise capital huge enough to dilute existing shareholders. It also did not explain why it is seeking to raise the said capital in its AGM Notice, a slight departure from the norm in cases like this.
- Custodian is also highly capitalized with a Net Asset of about N46 billion and a balance sheet size of N176.1 billion (after the acquisition of UPDC) as of 2020.
- Suffice to add that the company recently paid shareholders about N2.6 billion in dividends, making us wonder why it is seeking to dilute shareholders when it could have just ploughed that amount to its capital raising needs.
- In fact, the dividends paid in 2020 was just 21% of profits, meaning it had retained about N10 billion in profits made during the year. Again, why does it need N6.1 billion in loans?
- Custodian also has a thriving insurance business which fetched it about N58 billion in gross premium income out of which N32 billion was from non-life. Again, why does it need N6.1 billion on convertible loans?
- The company currently carries a debt of about N5.5 billion which was inherited from its acquisition of UPDC. The debt is mostly a bond issued at an interest rate of 16% per annum and due for full liquidation in 2023.
- There is no rush to pay down this debt.
We are lost as to why the company is looking to raise this capital and can only now think of two reasons. Firstly, could it be the existing shareholders looking to tighten their stake in the company? Custodian’s majority shareholders are Gratitude Capital Limited and Mikeade Investments Limited with 22.48% and 15.72% respectively.
- The company CEO Oluwole Oshin represents Gratitude Capital while Business Mogul Micheal Ade (Elizade) owns Mikeade Investments Limited. Could it be either of these two investors looking to up their stakes?
- There could also be a reason for this back door approach. About 74.5% of the company is owned by just 20 shareholders so it is clear that increasing majority stake will be difficult to achieve.
- The other reason is perhaps an institutional investor looking to acquire a significant stake in the company through the backdoor. Is this plausible?
Well, these are speculations that only Cusdotian can confirm. We hope they do so as soon as possible.
Nairametrics | Company Earnings
Access our Live Feed portal for the latest company earnings as they drop.
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- Jaiz Bank proposes dividend worth N884 million for shareholders.