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Fitch claims until 2028 before Nigeria exits damage caused by Buharinomics

It has been revealed that Nigeria’s economy will struggle to return to the robust levels of economic growth witnessed prior to the 2014 collapse in global oil prices. A recent report released by FitchSolutions on Nigeria’s country Risk for the third quarter of 2019 has revealed.



Nigeria's recession period, Buhari Ministerial list, Buhari ask for more time, Nigeria's economy - growth, Buhari food forex, CBN Policies

A recent report released by Fitch Solutions on Nigeria’s country Risk for the third quarter of 2019 reveals Nigeria’s economy will struggle to return to the robust levels of economic growth, witnessed prior to the 2014 collapse in global oil prices, due to the economic policies of the Buhari led Government.

According to the report, the contraction and slow projection in Nigeria’s growth will be driven by Nigeria’s challenging operating environment and back economic policies.


Over the next 10 years, Nigeria’s economy will struggle to return to the robust levels of real GDP growth recorded prior to the collapse in oil prices. With substantial increases in oil production unlikely, the country will have to develop alternative sectors, but this will likely prove difficult in Nigeria’s challenging operating environment and weak reforms.”

The report details some factors that will be responsible for the likely contracted and slow growth outlook for Nigeria’s economic outlook in the next 10 years. Here are some of the factors highlighted.

Business Unfriendly: The report revealed that there is a low expectation of oil production returning to the level witnessed between 2010-2014 for the next 10 years, and this will pose significant challenges to Nigeria’s economic outlook.

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  • However, it stated that the unfriendly business environment in Nigeria and the instability of the commodity-dependent economy will keep fixed investment below the levels required to move the country away from its oil dependence.
  • According to Fitch report, the victory of incumbent Muhammudu Buhari in the February 2019 elections suggests little scope for structural reform in the years ahead, weighing on the economy’s long-term growth prospects.
  • Hence, Nigeria’s economic growth forecast is put at 3.4% per year over the long-term outlook from 2019 to 2028, compared with 6.1% in the 2010-2014 oil boom years.

The report also shows that a combination of low prices and long-term constraints on production suggests that the oil sector will not be the economic driver that it was previously.

  • Crude exports have historically accounted for 90.0-95.0% of total merchandise exports and around 70.0% of government revenues.
  • While this has led to substantial economic growth in previous years, the outlook over the next decade is far less positive.
  • However, it was stated that Nigeria’s economy will struggle to diversify away from its long-standing oil dependence, due to a poor operating environment hindering investment into alternative sectors.

“Given the country’s growing population, the most pressing sectors for the Nigerian economy to diversify into would be those that create significant opportunities for employment, such as agriculture and manufacturing.”

“However, developing these sectors requires substantial surrounding infrastructure, including a reliable power supply and adequate storage and transport links to move to produce to market. Nigeria will find it difficult to attract the level of investment it needs to develop this infrastructure while its operating environment remains such a headwind to businesses.”

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Population Upsurge – Often viewed as a highlight of the Nigerian economy, the report ironically viewed Nigeria’s booming population as a time-bomb that will trigger unrest. According to Fitch,

  • While Nigeria’s large population should boost growth significantly, in the absence of sufficient employment opportunities there is a substantial risk that the country’s demographic dividend will turn into a demographic time bomb, with potential for the booming population to threaten political stability.
  • Meanwhile, it was noted that Nigeria’s large and fast-growing population (expected to reach 251.6 million by 2028) will ensure opportunities are on offer for investors willing to take on substantial risk
  • This will see economic activity slowly accelerate from the recession recorded in 2016.

On Corruption: According to Transparency International, Nigeria ranks 144th out of 180 countries in its 2018 Corruption Perceptions Index. According to Fitch,

  • With rampant corruption having concentrated wealth in the hands of political elites, the country suffers from significantly unequal wealth distribution and this makes policy implementation difficult.
  • Hence, high-level corruption could further a sense of grievance and raises the potential for destabilising protests.

“Nigeria’s business environment is significantly weakened by rampant corruption, burdensome bureaucratic procedures, and a weak legal framework. Financial crimes such as fraud, embezzlement and money-laundering also continue to threaten businesses operating in Nigeria.”

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The latest inflation report shows that Nigeria’s inflation rose to 11.40% in May. According to Fitch, while Nigeria’s inflation moderated to an average of 12.2% in 2018, price pressures remain elevated – in part due to continued disruptions of the food supply chains because of instability in key producing areas.

Hence, it was revealed that average inflation will remain above the central bank’s target high of 9.0% until 2022. Thereafter, the inflation rate is expected to fall into high single-digit levels with slow growth in the economy.



Samuel is an Analyst with over 5 years experience. Connect with him via his twitter handle



  1. Brian

    June 21, 2019 at 7:34 pm

    Despite all these headwinds, I still believe this nation’s greatness will soon manifest.

  2. Anodebenze

    July 1, 2019 at 4:55 pm

    Now what is nairametric opinion ? there is nothing new in this American’s rating agency called fitch I do not knows when the federal govt did licensed them to operates in Nigeria.THERE IS NOTHING NEW IN THIS REPORT,RECYCLING PREJUDICES,the country have just come out recession,my view is that the govt is not moving fast and faster,as obasanjo have said,we can do more than we are doing now.
    The governor of cbn have said we will have a double growth by the next election,do you believes govt officials who have the powers to acts,or some foreign rating agency.
    There have been reform,in having business friendliness,reform in forex untilization and social lending.if various lending done by the cbn and the fed govt,the economy can grows at least 8% next year,using stats and swot using stats,i meansif govt finds any or some sector of the micro or macro economy,govt can give more power,to reinforces this sector,by swot,it means s means strength,w means weakness,o means opportunies,t means threat.
    It is lamentable that Mr Buhari veoted the NNPC,if passed, it will to competitionfuel subsidy can be removed all these joint-venture will be a thing of the SWOT,we have the cbn intervening directly.they said we will lend in creative industry even brutus,sorry I means nairametric did said the cbn will lend to NYSC graduate,which can be found in this swot strategic aim.
    Instead of nairametric following a positive new angle.they started writing something,that is burning my stomach.

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NNPC quells fears over leaking Lagos pipeline

The Corporation says it was on the last stage of completing repairs which includes hydro testing.



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The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) urged Nigerians to ignore reports of a possible fire outbreak from a vandalized pipeline at Aboru Canal in Alimosho Local Government Area of Lagos state. 

“There is no such hazard as the line in question has since been shut down for repairs and presently contains only water,” NNPC said. 


NNPC said that the Atlas Cove-Mosimi stretch of the system 2B pipeline was shut down on June 25, 2020, to enable the comprehensive maintenance of some segment of the pipeline. 

The Corporation says it was on the last stage of completing repairs which includes hydro testing (a process of pumping water through the entire pipeline to leak detection and for integrity tests). 

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Revealing that they stopped pumping water 9:27 am Thursday morning to enable necessary repairs after patrol team made a report about leakage at a point in the Aboru Canal. 

NNPC urges residents of the community to remain calm “as there is no possibility of a fire erupting from the leakage point”. 

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Real Estate and Construction

FIRS introduces stamp duty on house rent and C of O transactions

FIRS explained that the new policy was necessary so as to give the instruments the legal backing required.



FIRS introduces stamp duty on house rent and C of O transactions

The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), as part of measures to reduce disputes in real estate related transactions and generate more revenue, has announced that stamp duty will be paid on house rent and Certificate of Occupancy (C of O), in line with its new adhesive duty.

This was disclosed in a press statement by the FIRS Director for Communication and Liaison Department, Mr Abdullahi Ahmad, in Abuja, on Thursday July 2, 2020, as reported by the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN).


READ MORE: Devaluation: Experts highlight trends clouding economy’s growth in 2020 

He explained that the new policy was necessary so as to give the instruments the legal backing required, and make them legally binding on all parties involved in such transactions.

Consequently, Ahmad asked Nigerians to ensure that documents that relate to rent and lease agreements for homes or offices, C of O, and other common business-related transaction instruments were authenticated with the new FIRS Adhesive Stamp Duty.

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While quoting the Executive Chairman of FIRS, Ahmed said, “The following are the chargeable transactions in the Fixed Duty Instruments category, Power of Attorney (PoA), Certificate of Occupancy (C of O), Proxy form; Appointment of Receiver, Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), Joint Venture Agreements (JVA), Guarantor’s form, and Ordinary Agreements Receipts.

READ MORE: FIRS tightens noose on deduction of stamp duty, CIT, others 

“While ad-Valorem Instruments chargeable under the Stamp Duties Act are Deed of Assignment, Sales Agreement, Legal Mortgage or Debentures, Tenancy or Lease Agreement, Insurance Policies, Contract Agreements, Vending Agreement, Promissory Notes, Charter-Party and Contract Notes.

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“Stamp duty is basically charged in two forms, either ad valorem where duty payable is a percentage of the consideration on an instrument or a fixed sum irrespective of the consideration on dutiable instrument or document.’’

It can be recalled that a few days ago, an Inter-Ministerial Committee on Audit and Recovery of Back Years Stamp Duties was inauguated; the new FIRS Adhesive Stamp Duty was introduced then. The committee consists of representatives from the FIRS, the CBN, the Federal Ministry of Justice and the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning.

The committee is tasked primarily with enforcing those sections of the Stamp Duties Act that empower the Federal Government to recover stamp duties, as well as the accompanying fines and penalties for up to 5 years.

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The back-years recovery is targeted mostly at financial institutions like deposit money banks, Nigerian Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS), Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS), Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) and so on, in respect of stamp duties already collected but not yet remitted.

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COVID-19 Update in Nigeria

On the 2nd of July 2020, 626 new confirmed cases and 13 deaths were recorded in Nigeria bringing the total confirmed cases recorded in the country to 27,110.



The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria touched a new milestone as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 27,110 confirmed cases.

On the 2nd of July 2020, 626 new confirmed cases and 13 deaths were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 3,063 samples across the country.


To date, 27110 cases have been confirmed, 10801 cases have been discharged and 616 deaths have been recorded in 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 141,525 tests have been carried out as of July 2nd, 2020 compared to 138,462 tests a day earlier.

COVID-19 Case Updates- 2nd July 2020

  • Total Number of Cases – 27,110
  • Total Number Discharged – 10,801
  • Total Deaths – 616
  • Total Tests Carried out – 141,525

According to the NCDC, the 626 new cases were reported from 20 states- Lagos (193), FCT (85), Oyo (41), Edo (38), Kwara (34), Abia (31), Ogun (29), Ondo (28), Rivers (26), Osun (21), Akwa Ibom (18), Delta (18), Enugu (15), Kaduna (13), Plateau (11), Borno (8), Bauchi (7), Adamawa (5), Gombe (4), Sokoto (1).

Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 10,823, followed by Abuja (2,020), Oyo (1,432), Kano (1,257), Edo (1,203), Delta (1,149) Rivers (1,114), Ogun (898),  Kaduna (818), Katsina (578), Bauchi (512), Gombe (511), Borno (501), Ebonyi (438), Plateau (393), Ondo (353), Imo (352), Abia (351), Enugu (342), Jigawa (318).

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Kwara state has recorded 269 cases, Bayelsa (234), Nasarawa (213), Sokoto (152), Osun (148), Niger (116), Akwa Ibom (104), Adamawa (89), Kebbi (81), Zamfara (76), Anambra (73), Benue (65), Yobe (61), Ekiti (43), Taraba (19), while Kogi state has recorded 4 cases.


READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

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Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020.

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READ ALSO: Bill Gates says Trump’s WHO funding suspension is dangerous

DateConfirmed caseNew casesTotal deathsNew deathsTotal recoveryActive casesCritical cases
July 2, 2020271106266161310801156937
July 1, 2020264847906031310152157297
June 30, 202025694561590179746153587
June 29, 20202513356657389402151587
June 28, 20202486749056579007149957
June 27, 20202407777955848625148947
June 26, 20202329868455458253144917
June 25, 20202261459454977822142437
June 24, 20202202064954297613138657
June 23, 20202137145253387338135007
June 22, 20202091967552577109132857
June 21, 202020242436518126879128477
June 20, 202019808661506196718125847
June 19, 202019147667487126581120797
June 18, 20201848074547566307116987
June 17, 202017735587469145967112997
June 16, 202017148490455315623110707
June 15, 20201665857342445349108857
June 14, 202016085403420135220104457
June 13, 20201568250140785101101747
June 12, 20201518162739912489198917
June 11, 2020145546813875449496737
June 10, 20201387340938217435191407
June 9, 2020134646633654420688937
June 8, 2020128013153617404084007
June 7, 20201248626035412395981737
June 6, 2020122333893429382680657
June 5, 20201184432833310369678157
June 4, 2020115163503238353576467
June 3, 2020111663483151332975227
June 2, 20201081924131415323972667
June 1, 20201057841629912312271579
May 31, 20201016230728714300768687
May 30, 2020985555327312285667267
May 29, 202093023872612269763447
May 28, 202089151822595259260647
May 27, 202087333892545250159787
May 26, 2020834427624916238557107
May 25, 202080682292337231155247
May 24, 202078393132265226353607
May 23, 202075262652210217451317
May 22, 2020726124522110200750337
May 21, 2020701633921111190748987
May 20, 202066772842008184046377
May 19, 202064012261921173444757
May 18, 202061752161919164443407
May 17, 202059593881826159441837
May 16, 202056211761765147239737
May 15, 202054452881713132039544
May 14, 202051621931683118038154
May 13, 202049711841646107037374
May 12, 20204787146158695936704
May 11, 202046412421521090235894
May 10, 202043992481421777834794
May 9, 202041512391271174532784
May 8, 202039123861181067931154
May 7, 20203526381108460128184
May 6, 20203145195104553425071
May 5, 2020295014899548123704
May 4, 2020280224594641722912
May 3, 2020255817088240020702
May 2, 20202388220861735119522
May 1, 20202170238691035117512
April 30, 2020193220459731715562
April 29, 2020172819652730713692
April 28, 2020153219545425512322
April 27, 20201337644102559942
April 26, 20201273914152399942
April 25, 20201182873632229252
April 24, 202010951143312088552
April 23, 20209811083231977532
April 22, 2020873912931976482
April 21, 20207821172631975602
April 20, 2020665382311884662
April 19, 2020627862221704362
April 18, 2020541482021663562
April 17, 2020493511841593172
April 16, 2020442351311522772
April 15, 2020407341211282672
April 14, 202037330111992632
April 13, 202034320100912422
April 12, 20203235100852282
April 11, 202031813103702382
April 10, 20203051770582402
April 9, 20202881471512302
April 8, 20202742260442262
April 7, 20202541661442042
April 6, 2020238650351982
April 5, 20202321851331942
April 4, 2020214540251850
April 3, 20202092542251800
April 2, 20201841020201620
April 1, 2020174352091630
March 31, 202013982091280
March 30, 2020131202181210
March 29, 2020111221031070
March 28, 20208919103850
March 27, 2020705103660
March 26, 20206514102620
March 25, 2020517102480
March 24, 2020444102410
March 23, 20204010112370
March 22, 2020308002280
March 21, 20202210001210
March 20, 2020124001110
March 19, 20208000170
March 18, 20208500170
March 17, 20203100030
March 16, 20202000020
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