A recent report released by Fitch Solutions on Nigeria’s country Risk for the third quarter of 2019 reveals Nigeria’s economy will struggle to return to the robust levels of economic growth, witnessed prior to the 2014 collapse in global oil prices, due to the economic policies of the Buhari led Government.
According to the report, the contraction and slow projection in Nigeria’s growth will be driven by Nigeria’s challenging operating environment and back economic policies.
“Over the next 10 years, Nigeria’s economy will struggle to return to the robust levels of real GDP growth recorded prior to the collapse in oil prices. With substantial increases in oil production unlikely, the country will have to develop alternative sectors, but this will likely prove difficult in Nigeria’s challenging operating environment and weak reforms.”
The report details some factors that will be responsible for the likely contracted and slow growth outlook for Nigeria’s economic outlook in the next 10 years. Here are some of the factors highlighted.
Business Unfriendly: The report revealed that there is a low expectation of oil production returning to the level witnessed between 2010-2014 for the next 10 years, and this will pose significant challenges to Nigeria’s economic outlook.
- However, it stated that the unfriendly business environment in Nigeria and the instability of the commodity-dependent economy will keep fixed investment below the levels required to move the country away from its oil dependence.
- According to Fitch report, the victory of incumbent Muhammudu Buhari in the February 2019 elections suggests little scope for structural reform in the years ahead, weighing on the economy’s long-term growth prospects.
- Hence, Nigeria’s economic growth forecast is put at 3.4% per year over the long-term outlook from 2019 to 2028, compared with 6.1% in the 2010-2014 oil boom years.
The report also shows that a combination of low prices and long-term constraints on production suggests that the oil sector will not be the economic driver that it was previously.
- Crude exports have historically accounted for 90.0-95.0% of total merchandise exports and around 70.0% of government revenues.
- While this has led to substantial economic growth in previous years, the outlook over the next decade is far less positive.
- However, it was stated that Nigeria’s economy will struggle to diversify away from its long-standing oil dependence, due to a poor operating environment hindering investment into alternative sectors.
“Given the country’s growing population, the most pressing sectors for the Nigerian economy to diversify into would be those that create significant opportunities for employment, such as agriculture and manufacturing.”
“However, developing these sectors requires substantial surrounding infrastructure, including a reliable power supply and adequate storage and transport links to move to produce to market. Nigeria will find it difficult to attract the level of investment it needs to develop this infrastructure while its operating environment remains such a headwind to businesses.”
Population Upsurge – Often viewed as a highlight of the Nigerian economy, the report ironically viewed Nigeria’s booming population as a time-bomb that will trigger unrest. According to Fitch,
- While Nigeria’s large population should boost growth significantly, in the absence of sufficient employment opportunities there is a substantial risk that the country’s demographic dividend will turn into a demographic time bomb, with potential for the booming population to threaten political stability.
- Meanwhile, it was noted that Nigeria’s large and fast-growing population (expected to reach 251.6 million by 2028) will ensure opportunities are on offer for investors willing to take on substantial risk
- This will see economic activity slowly accelerate from the recession recorded in 2016.
On Corruption: According to Transparency International, Nigeria ranks 144th out of 180 countries in its 2018 Corruption Perceptions Index. According to Fitch,
- With rampant corruption having concentrated wealth in the hands of political elites, the country suffers from significantly unequal wealth distribution and this makes policy implementation difficult.
- Hence, high-level corruption could further a sense of grievance and raises the potential for destabilising protests.
“Nigeria’s business environment is significantly weakened by rampant corruption, burdensome bureaucratic procedures, and a weak legal framework. Financial crimes such as fraud, embezzlement and money-laundering also continue to threaten businesses operating in Nigeria.”
The latest inflation report shows that Nigeria’s inflation rose to 11.40% in May. According to Fitch, while Nigeria’s inflation moderated to an average of 12.2% in 2018, price pressures remain elevated – in part due to continued disruptions of the food supply chains because of instability in key producing areas.
Hence, it was revealed that average inflation will remain above the central bank’s target high of 9.0% until 2022. Thereafter, the inflation rate is expected to fall into high single-digit levels with slow growth in the economy.
NNPC quells fears over leaking Lagos pipeline
The Corporation says it was on the last stage of completing repairs which includes hydro testing.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) urged Nigerians to ignore reports of a possible fire outbreak from a vandalized pipeline at Aboru Canal in Alimosho Local Government Area of Lagos state.
“There is no such hazard as the line in question has since been shut down for repairs and presently contains only water,” NNPC said.
Press Release: @NNPCgroup Allays Fears of Possible Fire on Dripping Lagos Pipeline
… Says Leaking Line Contains Water, Not Petrol
— NNPC Group (@NNPCgroup) July 2, 2020
NNPC said that the Atlas Cove-Mosimi stretch of the system 2B pipeline was shut down on June 25, 2020, to enable the comprehensive maintenance of some segment of the pipeline.
The Corporation says it was on the last stage of completing repairs which includes hydro testing (a process of pumping water through the entire pipeline to leak detection and for integrity tests).
Revealing that they stopped pumping water 9:27 am Thursday morning to enable necessary repairs after patrol team made a report about leakage at a point in the Aboru Canal.
NNPC urges residents of the community to remain calm “as there is no possibility of a fire erupting from the leakage point”.
FIRS introduces stamp duty on house rent and C of O transactions
FIRS explained that the new policy was necessary so as to give the instruments the legal backing required.
The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), as part of measures to reduce disputes in real estate related transactions and generate more revenue, has announced that stamp duty will be paid on house rent and Certificate of Occupancy (C of O), in line with its new adhesive duty.
This was disclosed in a press statement by the FIRS Director for Communication and Liaison Department, Mr Abdullahi Ahmad, in Abuja, on Thursday July 2, 2020, as reported by the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN).
He explained that the new policy was necessary so as to give the instruments the legal backing required, and make them legally binding on all parties involved in such transactions.
Consequently, Ahmad asked Nigerians to ensure that documents that relate to rent and lease agreements for homes or offices, C of O, and other common business-related transaction instruments were authenticated with the new FIRS Adhesive Stamp Duty.
While quoting the Executive Chairman of FIRS, Ahmed said, “The following are the chargeable transactions in the Fixed Duty Instruments category, Power of Attorney (PoA), Certificate of Occupancy (C of O), Proxy form; Appointment of Receiver, Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), Joint Venture Agreements (JVA), Guarantor’s form, and Ordinary Agreements Receipts.
“While ad-Valorem Instruments chargeable under the Stamp Duties Act are Deed of Assignment, Sales Agreement, Legal Mortgage or Debentures, Tenancy or Lease Agreement, Insurance Policies, Contract Agreements, Vending Agreement, Promissory Notes, Charter-Party and Contract Notes.
“Stamp duty is basically charged in two forms, either ad valorem where duty payable is a percentage of the consideration on an instrument or a fixed sum irrespective of the consideration on dutiable instrument or document.’’
It can be recalled that a few days ago, an Inter-Ministerial Committee on Audit and Recovery of Back Years Stamp Duties was inauguated; the new FIRS Adhesive Stamp Duty was introduced then. The committee consists of representatives from the FIRS, the CBN, the Federal Ministry of Justice and the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning.
The committee is tasked primarily with enforcing those sections of the Stamp Duties Act that empower the Federal Government to recover stamp duties, as well as the accompanying fines and penalties for up to 5 years.
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The back-years recovery is targeted mostly at financial institutions like deposit money banks, Nigerian Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS), Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS), Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) and so on, in respect of stamp duties already collected but not yet remitted.
COVID-19 Update in Nigeria
On the 2nd of July 2020, 626 new confirmed cases and 13 deaths were recorded in Nigeria bringing the total confirmed cases recorded in the country to 27,110.
The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria touched a new milestone as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 27,110 confirmed cases.
On the 2nd of July 2020, 626 new confirmed cases and 13 deaths were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 3,063 samples across the country.
To date, 27110 cases have been confirmed, 10801 cases have been discharged and 616 deaths have been recorded in 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 141,525 tests have been carried out as of July 2nd, 2020 compared to 138,462 tests a day earlier.
COVID-19 Case Updates- 2nd July 2020
- Total Number of Cases – 27,110
- Total Number Discharged – 10,801
- Total Deaths – 616
- Total Tests Carried out – 141,525
According to the NCDC, the 626 new cases were reported from 20 states- Lagos (193), FCT (85), Oyo (41), Edo (38), Kwara (34), Abia (31), Ogun (29), Ondo (28), Rivers (26), Osun (21), Akwa Ibom (18), Delta (18), Enugu (15), Kaduna (13), Plateau (11), Borno (8), Bauchi (7), Adamawa (5), Gombe (4), Sokoto (1).
Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 10,823, followed by Abuja (2,020), Oyo (1,432), Kano (1,257), Edo (1,203), Delta (1,149) Rivers (1,114), Ogun (898), Kaduna (818), Katsina (578), Bauchi (512), Gombe (511), Borno (501), Ebonyi (438), Plateau (393), Ondo (353), Imo (352), Abia (351), Enugu (342), Jigawa (318).
Kwara state has recorded 269 cases, Bayelsa (234), Nasarawa (213), Sokoto (152), Osun (148), Niger (116), Akwa Ibom (104), Adamawa (89), Kebbi (81), Zamfara (76), Anambra (73), Benue (65), Yobe (61), Ekiti (43), Taraba (19), while Kogi state has recorded 4 cases.
Lock Down and Curfew
In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.
The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.
On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020.
|Date||Confirmed case||New cases||Total deaths||New deaths||Total recovery||Active cases||Critical cases|
|July 2, 2020||27110||626||616||13||10801||15693||7|
|July 1, 2020||26484||790||603||13||10152||15729||7|
|June 30, 2020||25694||561||590||17||9746||15358||7|
|June 29, 2020||25133||566||573||8||9402||15158||7|
|June 28, 2020||24867||490||565||7||9007||14995||7|
|June 27, 2020||24077||779||558||4||8625||14894||7|
|June 26, 2020||23298||684||554||5||8253||14491||7|
|June 25, 2020||22614||594||549||7||7822||14243||7|
|June 24, 2020||22020||649||542||9||7613||13865||7|
|June 23, 2020||21371||452||533||8||7338||13500||7|
|June 22, 2020||20919||675||525||7||7109||13285||7|
|June 21, 2020||20242||436||518||12||6879||12847||7|
|June 20, 2020||19808||661||506||19||6718||12584||7|
|June 19, 2020||19147||667||487||12||6581||12079||7|
|June 18, 2020||18480||745||475||6||6307||11698||7|
|June 17, 2020||17735||587||469||14||5967||11299||7|
|June 16, 2020||17148||490||455||31||5623||11070||7|
|June 15, 2020||16658||573||424||4||5349||10885||7|
|June 14, 2020||16085||403||420||13||5220||10445||7|
|June 13, 2020||15682||501||407||8||5101||10174||7|
|June 12, 2020||15181||627||399||12||4891||9891||7|
|June 11, 2020||14554||681||387||5||4494||9673||7|
|June 10, 2020||13873||409||382||17||4351||9140||7|
|June 9, 2020||13464||663||365||4||4206||8893||7|
|June 8, 2020||12801||315||361||7||4040||8400||7|
|June 7, 2020||12486||260||354||12||3959||8173||7|
|June 6, 2020||12233||389||342||9||3826||8065||7|
|June 5, 2020||11844||328||333||10||3696||7815||7|
|June 4, 2020||11516||350||323||8||3535||7646||7|
|June 3, 2020||11166||348||315||1||3329||7522||7|
|June 2, 2020||10819||241||314||15||3239||7266||7|
|June 1, 2020||10578||416||299||12||3122||7157||9|
|May 31, 2020||10162||307||287||14||3007||6868||7|
|May 30, 2020||9855||553||273||12||2856||6726||7|
|May 29, 2020||9302||387||261||2||2697||6344||7|
|May 28, 2020||8915||182||259||5||2592||6064||7|
|May 27, 2020||8733||389||254||5||2501||5978||7|
|May 26, 2020||8344||276||249||16||2385||5710||7|
|May 25, 2020||8068||229||233||7||2311||5524||7|
|May 24, 2020||7839||313||226||5||2263||5360||7|
|May 23, 2020||7526||265||221||0||2174||5131||7|
|May 22, 2020||7261||245||221||10||2007||5033||7|
|May 21, 2020||7016||339||211||11||1907||4898||7|
|May 20, 2020||6677||284||200||8||1840||4637||7|
|May 19, 2020||6401||226||192||1||1734||4475||7|
|May 18, 2020||6175||216||191||9||1644||4340||7|
|May 17, 2020||5959||388||182||6||1594||4183||7|
|May 16, 2020||5621||176||176||5||1472||3973||7|
|May 15, 2020||5445||288||171||3||1320||3954||4|
|May 14, 2020||5162||193||168||3||1180||3815||4|
|May 13, 2020||4971||184||164||6||1070||3737||4|
|May 12, 2020||4787||146||158||6||959||3670||4|
|May 11, 2020||4641||242||152||10||902||3589||4|
|May 10, 2020||4399||248||142||17||778||3479||4|
|May 9, 2020||4151||239||127||11||745||3278||4|
|May 8, 2020||3912||386||118||10||679||3115||4|
|May 7, 2020||3526||381||108||4||601||2818||4|
|May 6, 2020||3145||195||104||5||534||2507||1|
|May 5, 2020||2950||148||99||5||481||2370||4|
|May 4, 2020||2802||245||94||6||417||2291||2|
|May 3, 2020||2558||170||88||2||400||2070||2|
|May 2, 2020||2388||220||86||17||351||1952||2|
|May 1, 2020||2170||238||69||10||351||1751||2|
|April 30, 2020||1932||204||59||7||317||1556||2|
|April 29, 2020||1728||196||52||7||307||1369||2|
|April 28, 2020||1532||195||45||4||255||1232||2|
|April 27, 2020||1337||64||41||0||255||994||2|
|April 26, 2020||1273||91||41||5||239||994||2|
|April 25, 2020||1182||87||36||3||222||925||2|
|April 24, 2020||1095||114||33||1||208||855||2|
|April 23, 2020||981||108||32||3||197||753||2|
|April 22, 2020||873||91||29||3||197||648||2|
|April 21, 2020||782||117||26||3||197||560||2|
|April 20, 2020||665||38||23||1||188||466||2|
|April 19, 2020||627||86||22||2||170||436||2|
|April 18, 2020||541||48||20||2||166||356||2|
|April 17, 2020||493||51||18||4||159||317||2|
|April 16, 2020||442||35||13||1||152||277||2|
|April 15, 2020||407||34||12||1||128||267||2|
|April 14, 2020||373||30||11||1||99||263||2|
|April 13, 2020||343||20||10||0||91||242||2|
|April 12, 2020||323||5||10||0||85||228||2|
|April 11, 2020||318||13||10||3||70||238||2|
|April 10, 2020||305||17||7||0||58||240||2|
|April 9, 2020||288||14||7||1||51||230||2|
|April 8, 2020||274||22||6||0||44||226||2|
|April 7, 2020||254||16||6||1||44||204||2|
|April 6, 2020||238||6||5||0||35||198||2|
|April 5, 2020||232||18||5||1||33||194||2|
|April 4, 2020||214||5||4||0||25||185||0|
|April 3, 2020||209||25||4||2||25||180||0|
|April 2, 2020||184||10||2||0||20||162||0|
|April 1, 2020||174||35||2||0||9||163||0|
|March 31, 2020||139||8||2||0||9||128||0|
|March 30, 2020||131||20||2||1||8||121||0|
|March 29, 2020||111||22||1||0||3||107||0|
|March 28, 2020||89||19||1||0||3||85||0|
|March 27, 2020||70||5||1||0||3||66||0|
|March 26, 2020||65||14||1||0||2||62||0|
|March 25, 2020||51||7||1||0||2||48||0|
|March 24, 2020||44||4||1||0||2||41||0|
|March 23, 2020||40||10||1||1||2||37||0|
|March 22, 2020||30||8||0||0||2||28||0|
|March 21, 2020||22||10||0||0||1||21||0|
|March 20, 2020||12||4||0||0||1||11||0|
|March 19, 2020||8||0||0||0||1||7||0|
|March 18, 2020||8||5||0||0||1||7||0|
|March 17, 2020||3||1||0||0||0||3||0|
|March 16, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 15, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 14, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 13, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 12, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 11, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 10, 2020||2||0||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 9, 2020||2||1||0||0||0||2||0|
|March 8, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 7, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 6, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 5, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 4, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 3, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 2, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|March 1, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|February 29, 2020||1||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|February 28, 2020||1||1||0||0||0||1||0|