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Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 11.40% in May 2019

The consumer price index, which measures inflation, rose to 11.40% in May 2019. According to the @nigerianstat, year-on-year, inflation increased by 0.03% points higher than the 11.37% rate recorded in April 2019.

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Nigeria's inflation rate, Headline inflation jumps to 11.61% in October on border closure

Nigeria’s consumer price index which measures inflation, rose to 11.40% in May 2019, according to the monthly inflation report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

According to the NBS report, year-on-year, inflation increased by 0.03% points higher than the 11.37% rate recorded in April 2019.

Also, food inflation rose at 13.79% from 13.70%, while Core inflation dropped to 9.00% from 9.30% recorded in the previous month.

Food index on the rise

Analysis of the Bureau’s report that the composite food index rose by 13.79% in May 2019 compared to 13.70% in April. Meanwhile, the NBS explained that the rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Meat, Oils and fats, Bread and cereals, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Fish, Milk, cheese and egg, and Vegetables.

Also, on a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index rose by 1.41% in May 2019, up by 0.27% points from 1.14% recorded in April 2019.

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However, the average annual rate of change of the annual Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending May 2019 was 13.37%, which implies a 0.03% points from the average annual rate of change recorded in April 2019 (13.34%).

Inflation on “all items” inches down

According to the Bureau’s report, ”All items less farm produce” which is otherwise known as core inflation stood at 9.0% in May 2019, down by 0.3% when compared with 9.3% recorded in April 2019. On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.75% in May 2019. This was up by 0.05% when compared with 0.70% recorded in April 2019.

While giving further breakdown on the increase in core-sub index inflation, NBS stated that the highest increases were recorded in prices of Domestic and household services, Tobacco, Actual and imputed rentals for housing, Medical, Dental and Hospital services, Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, Repair and hire of footwear and Repair of household appliance.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 9.77% for the twelve-month period ending May 2019; this is 0.14% points lower than 9.91 percent recorded in April 2019

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States Inflation rose up in the north

In the month of May 2019, the northern states of Nigeria maintain the highest inflation on all items. The top three states with the highest inflation rate include Kebbi (15.76%), Bauchi (14.97%) and Kaduna (13.74%),

However, Abia (9.91%), Cross River (9.68%) and Kwara (8.45%) recorded the slowest rise in the headline Year on Year inflation.

Also in May 2019, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kaduna (17.10%), Kebbi (18.90%) and Gombe (16.90%), while Kogi (11.80%), Rivers (11.70%) and Abia (10.90%) recorded the slowest rise.

Urban and rural inflation spike

As against the previous month, urban and rural inflation rose in May 2019. Basically, the Urban inflation rate increased by 11.76% in May 2019 from 11.70% recorded in April 2019, while the rural inflation rate increased by 11.07% in May 2019 from 11.08% in April 2019.

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Analysis on monthly basis shows that urban index rose by 1.15 percent in May 2019, up by 0.15 points from 1.00 percent recorded in April 2019, while the rural index also rose by 1.07 percent in May 2019, up by 0.17 from the rate recorded in April 2019 (0.90%).

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Impacts on the economy

The rise in Nigerian’s inflation rate in the month of May 2019 makes it the second time in a row that inflation will inch up after recent increases. As inflation inches up for the second consecutive months, it means affected items captured by the Bureau witnessed a quick rise in terms of prices.

While the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reiterated its move towards curtailing the rise in inflation by holding key interest rates indicators constant in recent times, despite this, inflation still inched up and this can affect economic agents in the following ways:

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  • Controlling inflation is seen as a healthy stimulus for the economy as a whole, but it can also be quite challenging to keep in check. Spike in inflation for the month suggests that small businesses should remain mindful of its effects.
  • Spike in inflation also suggests that businesses revenue may slightly deplete as the purchasing power of consumers drops, while this may also worsen export and growth for the period under review.
  • The prices of food items listed by the Bureau under the food index may rise slowly, which means consumers may have to brace up for the slow rise in prices.

 

Samuel is an Analyst with over 5 years experience. Connect with him via his twitter handle

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Economy & Politics

Uganda Elections: Museveni re-elected for 6th term with 58.6% of the votes

Uganda’s President Museveni has won a 6th term in office as the opposition alleges wide-scale rigging.

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The President of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni, has been re-elected as President, gathering 5.85 million votes compared to 3.48 million votes by main opposition leader, Robert Kyagulanyi, a.k.a Bobi Wine.

According to Reuters, this victory represents 58.6% of the vote cast while Bobi Wine got 34.8%

Bobi Wine announced that the election results show this is the most fraudulent election in the history of Uganda and urged his followers to reject the result.

What you should know

  • Yoweri Museveni, aged 76, has been President of the East African nation since 1986.
  • Bobi Wine claimed via his official Twitter handle that military men jumped over his fence and took control of his home yesterday.

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Coronavirus

Combined Vaccine Manufacturing capacity to hit 6.8 billion doses in 2021

COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing capacity is expected to hit 6.8 billion doses in 2021.

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Covid-19: First world nations oppose waiving intellectual rights for vaccine development

Meristem Group disclosed that the combined effort in manufacturing COVID-19 vaccines for global use is expected to yield about 6.8 billion doses in 2021.

This was revealed in the Annual Outlook 2021 report presented by Meristem Group, titled Bracing for a different future.”

According to the report, the existing manufacturing capacity will only be sufficient enough to immunize about 44% of the global population, which would create obvious vaccination gap and make the pandemic last longer than necessary.

The report states,

  • The cold temperature requirements for vaccine storage pose major logistics concern particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and other low-income countries. WHO estimates that about 50% of vaccines are wasted every year, largely due to a lack of temperature control.”

According to the report, the estimated 6.8billion doses are expected to be collaboratively manufactured as follows:  CanSino – 0.2billion, AstraZeneca – 3.0 billion, Gamaleya – 0.3billion, Moderna – 0.4billion, Pfizer-BioNtech – 1.3billion, SinoPharm – 1billion, and SinoVac – 0.6billion.

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What you should know

  • The global population as of 2020 is 7.8billion and 70% is required to achieve herd immunity (otherwise called herd protection)
  • Herd Immunity or herd protection is achieved when you have most of the population immunized against an infectious disease.
  • 2 doses of the vaccines are required for each person for immunity.
  • It is expected that between 11 and 15 billion doses would be required to achieve the desired herd immunity, globally.
  • From all indications, herd immunity may not be achieved until mid or late 2022, with the subsisting 100% vaccine production capacity utilization in 2021 – with neither production nor distribution losses.
  • To achieve regulatory approval, a vaccine must undergo a three-stage clinical development process after the exploratory and pre-clinical stages and the U.S Food and Drug Administration (FDA) sets a phase 3 efficacy benchmark of 50%.

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Coronavirus

Covid-19: Global deaths surpass 2 million

Global casualty record for the Covid-19 pandemic surpassed 2 million deaths on Friday.

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Nigeria blows past 40,000 COVID-19 cases

The Global casualty record for the Covid-19 pandemic surpassed 2 million deaths on Friday, with the United States accounting for 1 in every 5 deaths, as it has recorded over 386,000 casualties so far.

This was disclosed in a report by Reuters in its Covid-19 tally reported on Friday evening.

After the United States, Brazil, Mexico, India and the U.K contribute nearly 50% of the combined casualties.

The report also disclosed that an average of 11,900 casualties are recorded per day in year 2021, despite the fact that it took 9 months for the world to record 1 million casualties.

United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, said the 2 million death count was “a heart-wrenching milestone.”

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  • “Behind this staggering number are names and faces: the smile now only a memory, the seat forever empty at the dinner table, the room that echoes with the silence of a loved one,” he added.

The WHO warned that 2021 could be tougher due to the nature of new variants which transmit the disease faster.

  • “We are going into a second year of this. It could even be tougher given the transmission dynamics and some of the issues that we are seeing,” WHO Chief, Mike Ryan, said.

Analysts expect the global death toll to surpass 3 million by April 2021.

What you should know 

  • Nairametrics reported that the total number of covid-19 cases in Nigeria had surpassed the 100,000 mark on Sunday 10th January 2021, according to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.
  • The African Union stated that it secured 270 million Covid-19 vaccine doses for the continent from drug manufacturers to supplement the COVAX programme, a step towards the commencement of the complex task of vaccinating over 1.2 billion people with limited financial resources.
  • The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control on Friday 15th January 2021, announced that 1,867 new cases of the covid-19 virus were recorded across 24 states in the country. This represents the highest number of cases recorded in a single day.

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