The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for the month of December 2018.
Inflation rose 11.44% year on year. This is 0.16% higher than the 11.28% recorded in November.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 0.74 percent in December 2018, up by 0.06 percent points from the 0.80% recorded in November.
Average monthly rise
The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending December 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 12.10 percent, showing 0.31% increase from the 12.41% recorded in November 2018.
How did the states fare?
Inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Bayelsa (13.32%), Zamfara (13.23%) and Ekiti (13.18%).
Kwara (9.12%) Ogun (8.71%), and Cross River (8.21%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.
On a month on month basis for December 2018, all items inflation was highest in Kebbi (1.72%), Kaduna (1.69%), and Zamfara (1.68%).
Ogun (0.07%) had the least with Kwara and Edo recording negative inflation or price deflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or an egative inflation rate) in December 2018.
A step closer to MPR raise
The consistent increase in inflation may sway members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to consider an increase in the Monetary Policy, at the first MPC meeting.
In the event of that not happening, MPC members could consider a raise after the elections.
Treasury bill yields may inch up
In the event of the MPC maintaining a hold recommendation on interest rate, the CBN could decide to increase yields on treasury bills.
Edo, Rivers, Ondo, Katsina, 17 others attract zero investment in 4 months
Lagos topped the list of states that attracted investments during the period under consideration.
About 21 states in Nigeria attracted zero investments in the last 4 months according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
According to data, the following states, Rivers, Ondo, Edo, Sokoto, Oyo, Abia, and Anambra recorded zero capital importation in the last 4 months. Others are Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Kastina, Kogi, Kwara, Osun, Oyo, Yobe, and Nassarawa states.
This information is contained in the Capital importation report obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN. The report also detailed the total amount of fresh investments attracted to the Nigerian economy during the period.
Note that most of the states that failed to attract investments during the period under review also failed to attract any investments in 2019. This means that it is either the necessary steps were not taken by the governments, or foreign investors could not find attraction in the states or the environments were simply not conducive for investment.
Lagos outshines FCT, Niger, 5 other states
As expected, Lagos topped the list of states that attracted investments during the period under consideration. Lagos attracted the highest amount of $5.39 billion during the period. The investment inflow into the state represents over 87% of the $6.17 billion.
Lagos is followed by the Federal Capital Territory which attracted a total investment inflow of $754.01 million.
Niger State attracted a total investment inflow of $11.60 million. Sokoto State also attracted $2.50 million, while Kaduna State attracted the sum of $1.98 million and Ogun attracted $1.70 million.
Kano and Akwa Ibom states recorded investment inflow of about $700,000 and about $237,000 respectively among others.
The limited investment inflows into some of these states clearly indicate that the states are not really attractive to the investors, even before the pandemic. The Managing Partner, FA Consult, Peter Adebayo, explained that the nation’s economy is not attractive enough to pull investments to states that lack the desired viability.
“Most of the investors are scared of insurgencies in the country, though such is limited to some parts of the nation, except for the well-connected investors that are given special attention,” he said.
Back story: Last March, Nairametrics reported that Ekiti, Kogi, Sokoto, Bayelsa, Ebonyi, Gombe, Jigawa, Abia, and five other state governments failed to attract investments in 2019.
Nigeria’s records 6.1 percent tax to GDP as tax base for VAT rise to N23.7 trillion
Nigeria’s tax to GDP landed at a paltry 6.1% of GDP for 2019.
Nigeria recorded a total tax collection of about N8.8 trillion in 2020 translating to a tax to GDP ratio of 6.1%. Total taxes collected include oil and non-oil tax plus taxes collected by states. Nigeria has a nominal GDP of N145.6 trillion as at December 2019. This is according to data collated from the FG and States taxes for 2019.
Data was sourced from the 2019 Budget Implementation report and the 2019 IGR report published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Nairametrics Research keeps a database of government data.
VAT – In the 2019 budget, Nigeria projected a total VAT revenue of N1.7 trillion as it anticipated higher tax revenues from vatable goods and services. VAT is collected by the Federal Inland Revenue Service and by law businesses who charge Vat are expected to remit same to the government after netting off the vat they paid on supplies (otherwise called input vat) from their sales proceed (output VAT).
- According to the data, actual VAT collected during the year was N1, 188.85 (millions) compared to a budget of N1,703.89 billion representing a negative variance of N515 billion or 30%.
- Since 5% was charged on invoices as at 2019, the amount upon which VAT was charged and remitted was N23.77 trillion only.
- This suggest the total transaction base for VAT in the country in 2019 was N23.77 trillion or 16.2% of GDP. Nigeria’s total nominal GDP N145.6 trillion.
- In 2018, the government earned a total VAT revenue N1,090 billion which also translates to a transaction base of N21.8 trillion. Between 2018 and 2019, Nigeria’s VAT transaction base has risen by N1.98 trillion or 9% year on year.
- Nigeria increased its VAT rate to 7.5% in 2020.
Corporate Tax – Nigeria also charges a corporate tax of 30% on chargeable profits (this represents income after deducting all allowable expenses). According to the budget implementation report a total of N1,517.51 billions was collected as corporate tax in 2019 compared to budget of N1,761.53 billion.
- At 30% corporate tax rate, total tax base was N5,058 billion (N5 trillion) which is also the total profits upon which Nigerian companies paid tax on.
- In 2018, the government collected N1,429.93 billion in corporate taxes which indicates the Federal Inland Revenue had a better year in 2018.
Total Taxes – Nigeria collected total non-oil taxes of N3,548.56 billion in 2019 which comprises of N1,517.51 billions (Corporate Taxes), N1,188.85 billions (Vat), N792 billion (Customs, import, fees and excise duties). Total oil taxes and royalties in 2019 was N4 trillion
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, state governments collected a total taxes of N1, 334 billion which includes PAYE (N809.23 billion), Direct Assessment (N47.6 billion), Road taxes (N30. 2billion), other taxes (N225.4 billion) and MDA revenues of N221.5 billion.
Based on the officially published tax figures for Nigeria (Federal and States) total taxes collected in 2020 is about N8, 883.5 billion. As a percentage of GDP, Nigeria taxes represents 6.1% one of the lowest in the world. According to data from the OECD (a group of some of the most developed countries in the world) indicates their average tax to GDP ratio is about 32.9% of GDP on average. France, one of the OECD countries has a tax to GDP ratio of over 46%.
Nigeria seems set to rely heavily on taxes to fund its federal and stage government expenditure. To achieve its target it will have to broaden its tax base and hope that economic activities pick up to be able to meet projections. Nigeria’s very low tax to GDP ratio has often been blamed on low tax base as over 50% of the economy remains informal. In the recently approved 2020 revised budget, the FG is projecting total VAT and Corporate tax revenue of N2, 029.3 million and N1,694 trillion respectively.
UPDATED: CBN retains MPR at 12.5%
MPR, Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), Liquidity ratio, and asymmetric corridor remain unchanged.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria has held the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) constant at 12.5%.
This was disclosed by Governor, CBN, Godwin Emefiele while reading the communique at the end of the MPC meeting on Monday. Other parameters such as Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), Liquidity ratio, and asymmetric corridor remain unchanged.
Emefiele explained that eight members of the committee voted in favour of holding the MPR, while two members wanted it reduced. According to the MPC, the decision to hold all rates constant was largely driven by the effect of the outbreak of COVID-19 that has largely disrupted the global economy.
Highlights of the Committee’s decision
MPR was kept at 12.50%
The asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points
CRR was retained at 27.5%
While Liquid Ratio was also kept at 30%
#CBN MPC votes to hold parameters constant
— Central Bank of Nigeria (@cenbank) July 20, 2020
Given the plethora of monetary and fiscal measures recently deployed to address the impending economic crisis, Emefiele explained that it would be a relatively cautious option for the MPC to hold the parameters. He said,
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“After reviewing our options, the MPC noted that the imperative for monetary policy at the May 2020 meeting was to strike a balance between supporting the recovery of output growth and reducing unemployment while maintaining stable prices. The Committee noted at this meeting that the economic fundamentals have marginally improved by the end of June 2020, following the gradual pick-up of economic activities as the positive impacts of the various interventions permeate into the economy. As a result, the Committee noted that the earlier downward adjustment of the MPR by 100 basis points to 12.5 per cent to signal the loosening monetary policy stance is yielding positive impact as credit growth increased significantly in the economy.”
He added that the Committee also noted the positive impact of the various fiscal and monetary interventions on households, SMEs and manufacturing sectors, which made it believed that increasing MPR at this stage will thus be counter-intuitive and will result in upward pressure on market rates and cost of production.