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How declining oil prices could affect Nigeria’s 2019 budget

As global crude oil prices continue to decline, there are growing concerns that the development could negatively affect the Nigerian Government’s economic plans.

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crude oil, Nigeria's Crude oil, Bonny light crude oil crashes as Nigeria runs into deeper revenue crisisBonny light crude oil crashes as Nigeria runs into deeper revenue crisis, Brent crude futures gained 0.92%, at $36.08 per barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also gained 0.54%, at $33.67 a barrel

As global crude oil prices continue to decline, there are growing concerns that the development could negatively affect the Nigerian Government’s economic plans; specifically its medium-term expenditure framework and other projections for the coming year.

Already, the appropriation bill, which has long been sent to the Senate for approval, is now said to be facing a likely review in efforts to accommodate the current situation.

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This has become imperative as the continuous declines in crude oil prices is said to have led to a reduction in Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account, (ECA). This, therefore, makes it impossible to implement the country’s budget in view of the growing volatility in the oil market.

Aspects of Nigeria’s ambitious budget that could be affected the most

Unless there is a reversal in the downward spiral of oil prices, some of the key aspects of Nigeria’s budget that may suffer include capital expenditure and the much-touted Economic Reform and Growth Plan (ERGP) of the President Muhammadu Buhari led administration.

The budget isn’t the only thing being affected

Nigeria’s budget is definitely not the only aspect of the economy that is being affected by the drastic drop in our prices. And perhaps this not surprising; after all the Nigerian economy is almost entirely dependent on oil.

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A recent Nairametrics article analysed that some investment portfolios could be very much affected should the declines persist. In the same vein, a different article examined how the situation could affect the financial performance of various Nigerian banks such as Zenith Bank Plc, United Bank for Africa (UBA), and Fidelity Bank Plc.

These banks have huge exposure to the oil industry in Nigeria. The continuous reduction in prices would, therefore, worsen the banks’ Non-Performing Loans because their clients (i.e., oil companies) will not be able to service their loans.

In the meantime, oil prices are below Nigeria’s budget benchmark

Although global oil benchmark, Brent Crude, has managed to climb up to $60 per barrel as at this morning, it is still below what is expected to ensure a successful implementation of the budget.

The commodity’s price had fallen below $60 per barrel, down by as much as 20%; the lowest since November 2017.

Member states of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries have been meeting to deliberate on ways to address the situation.

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Emmanuel holds an MSc. in International Relations and a B.A in Philosophy & Logic, both from the University of Ibadan. He is a communications professional. As a Lead Business Analyst at Nairametrics, he focuses mostly on quoted companies, their products/services, and the economy in which they operate. Emmanuel is also experienced in the areas of corporate communication, brand communication, corporate storytelling, public relations, business research, management/strategy, etc. You may contact him via his email- emmanuel.abara@nairametrics.com.

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Business News

Job listings spike up by 183% in April –Jobberman

Jobberman released figures showing a 183% increase in job listings on its platform in April 2020, thanks to its #UnityInAdversity campaign.

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Job listings spike up by 183% in April – Jobberman

Notable job placement website, Jobberman, has released figures showing that there was a 183% increase in job listings on its platform in the month of April 2020.

This increase, according to Jobberman, is a result of the #UnityInAdversity campaign which allowed companies to post job listings and access Jobberman’s database of over 2.2 million professionals across Nigeria for free, rather than paying the usual fees. This was the company’s way of showing support to businesses and individuals, amid the economic challenges which resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic.

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According to the release from Jobberman, this campaign came at a cost to the company since it was trading off its revenue by offering for free, the same services which formed its major source of income.

“At the beginning of March, Jobberman Nigeria saw a 70 percent decrease in job listings due to the reduced economic activity caused by the enforced lockdown and many companies shutting down recruitment budgets to cut costs. Jobseeker sign-ups also decreased by 17 percent. Jobberman took the bold step to put employers’ and job seekers’ needs first” the statement read.

(READ MORE: Merger, Tax incentive boosts BUA Cement FY 2019 result)

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The campaign, which is billed to run till June 30, has paid off greatly as data for April’s job listings alone was more than that of the entire Q1 2020 period. See a breakdown of the job listings below:

  • Almost a fifth of the positions (18.79%) were listed in the tech sector
  • Banking, finance, and insurance accounted for 9.27%
  • Education and training had 6.78 percent
  • IT & Software positions accounted for 11.69%
  • Sales had 13.32%.

Note that with the increase in job listings, job seeker sign-ups also increased by 39% in April alone.

Job listings spike up by 183% in April – Jobberman

Speaking about the campaign, the CEO of Jobberman Nigeria, Hilda Kragha said, “The COVID-19 pandemic has made the process of connecting talent to opportunities more complicated and we are fully aware of the strain businesses and individuals in Nigeria are facing. We plan to be here for the next 10 years so making this small sacrifice to help our users navigate these difficult times is something that we think is definitely worth doing”.

Kragha also noted that the campaign has encouraged healthy competition as candidates strive to show themselves qualified for the position.

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“We have found that soft skills such as emotional intelligence, business etiquette, time management, which are often overlooked and underestimated in Nigeria, can make a big difference. We know the power of soft skills and we are committed to empowering individuals with the training and soft skills they need to succeed in the workplace” she explained further.

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(READ MORE: Partnerships Beyond The Partners… Another Lesson From Interswitch)

Sequel to this, the company also launched a free soft skills training programme to help job seekers (between age 18 and 30 years) acquire the needed soft skills and better their chances of gaining employment.

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Economy & Politics

Gold prices rise, as President Trump decides on China today

Gold prices jumped on Friday as China and America’s drift deepened over further moves by China to impose security laws on Hong Kong

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Gold, Gold prices tick up as President Trump decides on China today

Gold prices jumped on Friday as China and America’s drift deepened over further moves by China to impose security laws on Hong Kong, lifting the allure of safe havens amid market uncertainties.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser cautioned the Chinese lately that Hong Kong, which has enjoyed special privileges, may now be treated like China when it comes to financial matters and trade.

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Trump, who had earlier vowed a tough action on China, will hold a news conference today to announce what measures his administration will take.

Spot gold gained about 0.1% at $1,719.63 per ounce, and U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,734.60.

The friendship between the Americans and Chinese had weakened, since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.

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President Trump and President Jinping of China have accused each other as a result of issues surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic.

(READ MORE:  Gold records 3-week high, as investors rush to safe haven)

Why do Investors buy Gold? Global Investors most often buy the safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty and use it to hedge against cash (inflationary macros).

Oil prices, Gold prices tick up as President Trump decides on China today

“The possible U.S. response could range from a tearing up of the Phase 1 trade deal and fresh tariffs on China, to milder travel or financial sanctions on Chinese officials,” said Shane Oliver, chief economist at Australian wealth manager AMP to Reuters News.

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“It is seen as a major threat to the rally we’ve had and the recovery,” “If it’s at the relatively mild end, then I don’t think it would derail the recovery bull market, but if it’s at the more extreme end with tariffs and harsh treatment of Hong Kong, then I think it gets more problematic,” Oliver added.

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Business News

AfDB board denies asking Adesina to step down, as Obasanjo says the bank risks being hijacked

“The Bureau of the board of governors informs the public that it has not taken any decision. Everyone must allow the Bureau to do its work and allow due process to reign.”

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AfDB partners DFID to unveil $80m infrastructure financing for Africa, ADB launches $3 billion “Fight COVID-19” Social Bond, US calls for an independent probe of AfDB president, Akinwumi Adesina, AfDB board denies asking Adesina to step down as Obasanjo says the bank risks being hijacked

The Bureau of the Board of Governors of the African Development Bank (AfDB) has denied media reports making the rounds that AfDB’s president, Akinwumi Adesina, has been asked to step down pending the completion of the probe and determination of allegations against him.

The bank’s top governing board members said that they have not asked Adesina to step down from his position as president, even as the board continues to review the fallout of complaints by some whistleblower. The statement from the Chairman of the bank’s board of governors, Niale Kaba, said:

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“The Bureau of the board of governors informs the public that it has not taken any decision. Everyone must allow the Bureau to do its work and allow due process to reign. All governors will be carried along in resolving the issue.’’

READ ALSO: IMF advises banks to suspend dividend payment

Kaba also stressed that there was no governance crisis at AfDB as was being speculated in certain quarters. He confirmed that the Bureau of the Board of Governors of AfDB met on Tuesday, May 26, after the request by the U.S Secretary calling for an independent probe. The essence of the meeting was to take a closer look at the allegations by the whistleblowers against Akinwumi Adesina, said allegations which had already been investigated by the ethics committee of the bank.

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Kaba further disclosed that even though no decision has been taken yet, the bureau assures that it is treating the case with the utmost seriousness that it deserves.

(READ MORE:  AfDB bows to pressure from U.S, orders an independent probe of Akinwumi Adesina)

Adesina, who maintains his innocence of those allegations, had stated that a fair, transparent, and just process will vindicate him.

In a related development, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo had thrown his weight behind Adesina and kicked against the demand by the United States of America for a fresh, independent probe of the AfDB President who had earlier been cleared by the ethics committee of the bank.

In his letter to 12 former African Presidents, Obasanjo said that Africa must stand up and not allow its institutions to be unduly controlled by non-African countries.

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Obasanjo said that the bank has witnessed tremendous growth under Adesina’s leadership and has doubled its capital base since he took over.

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