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Manufacturing sector expands for the 18th consecutive time

Manufacturing PMI for the month of September stood at 56.2 index points.

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Factory, Manufacturers lament over N5 billion loss of goods 

The manufacturing sector of the Nigerian economy has maintained its expansionary trend for the 18 consecutive months, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Survey Report for September 2018. PMI indicates changes in the level of business activities in the current month compared with the preceding month.

The report indicates that Manufacturing PMI for the month of September stood at 56.2 index points while composite PMI for the Non-manufacturing sector stood at 56.5 index points, during the month under review, indicating expansion in the sector for the seventeenth consecutive months.

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A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing/non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, 50 points indicates no change, and below 50 points indicates that it is generally contracting.

Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing (PMI) index grew at a slower rate when compared to the index in the previous month of August (57.1). Out of the 14 sub-sectors surveyed in the month of September, 11 reported growth in the following order:

  • Electrical equipment.
  • Printing and related support activities
  • Transportation equipment
  • Nonmetallic mineral products
  • Chemical & pharmaceutical products;
  • Fabricated metal products
  • Furniture & related products
  • Textile, apparel, leather and footwear
  • Food, beverage & tobacco products.
  • Petroleum & coal products
  • Plastics & rubber products.

The remaining three sub-sectors contracted in the following order:

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  • Petroleum & coal products
  • Paper products
  • Primary metal

Still on the manufacturing sector, the production level index grew for the nineteenth consecutive month in September 2018, to stand at 58.4 points. The index indicates a faster growth in the current month when compared to its level in the preceding month of August.

Also, the employment level in September stood at 54.9 points, indicating growth in employment level for the seventeenth consecutive month.

Non-manufacturing PMI

Meanwhile, the Non-manufacturing PMI index also grew at a slower rate during the month under consideration when compared to the index in the previous month of August (58.0). Out of the 17 sub-sectors surveyed in the month of September, 15 reported growth while 3 sub-sectors recorded contraction.

The business activity index grew for the eighteenth consecutive month in September 2018, to stand at 58.1 points, indicating expansion in non-manufacturing business activity. However, the employment level in September stood at 55.4 points, indicating growth in employment level for the seventeenth consecutive month.

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Company Results

Analysis: Is this a Lafarge rebirth?

Lafarge Africa Plc, one of the biggest building and concrete solutions companies in the world’s three biggest Achilles’ heels.

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Lafarge Africa Plc, Analysis: Is this a Lafarge rebirth?

Lafarge Africa Plc, a unit of LafargecHolcim Group – one of the biggest building and concrete solutions companies in the world, has had a pretty long run in the construction sector. With projected growth in urbanization and inevitable population expansion, the leading producer of building materials and construction solutions has its stake in the huge Nigerian housing market. The company had served customers in Nigeria and South Africa (now discontinued) for decades, their customer base cutting across individuals requiring small building projects to major construction and infrastructure projects. All of these do well to place the company as an active participant in the economic growth of Africa.

Yet, so much has plagued the company in the past few years, curtailing its success with avoidable losses and below-par profits. While it, no doubt, has a series of challenges to worry about – like most organizations – three of its biggest Achilles’ heels had been its failing South African operations, its incessant changes in its corporate leadership, and of course, the one pandemic threatening to rip the global economy to shreds – COVID-19.

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Lafarge South Africa

The company’s experience with its South African subsidiary gives credence to the phrase, “If anything is not serving you well, cut it off.” After years of dragging the African cement-maker down, the subsidiary was eventually spun off in July last year – not before it incurred a final loss of N3.2 billion in the first quarter of 2019. It was only after, when Lafarge restated its accounts by adjusting figures from the discontinued operations from its books, that the company set off on a positive growth trajectory.

Following the sale of Lafarge South Africa Holdings (LSAH) in Q3, there was a remarkable improvement in gross and operating margins, clearly showing that the sale of LSAH was valued accretive to shareholders. For one, the total debt reduced drastically. Short term loans and long term loans also had a drop of 79% and 75% respectively in comparison with the first quarter of last year. Other financial assets increased significantly from N1.7 billion in 2019 to N4.8 billion in Q1 2020. Also resulting from the sale was the increase in EPS from Q1 2019 of 0.36 to Q1 2020 of 0.93.

(READ MORE: Analysis: Total Nigeria needs a financial overhaul)

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Khaled El Dokani, CCEO of Lafarge Africa had stated, “Our turnaround and cost-reduction strategy in FY 2019 and the divestment of the South African business, have delivered strong results. The decrease in net debt has significantly strengthened our balance sheet and has placed us in a vantage position to face the future.”

Lafarge Africa, Lafarge dismisses Alleged SEC probe , Analysis: Is this a Lafarge rebirth?

Its Changing Leadership

In 2018 alone, the firm appointed four directors in the space of three months. 9 months ago, in September, former CFO of Lafarge Africa Plc., Bruno Bayet, resigned.  Just a month later, the board had announced the appointment of Lolu Alade Akinyemi as the new CFO. Next, the group CEO, Michel Puchercos, also resigned leaving Khaled Abdelaziz El Dokani in charge. Even amidst the challenges of 2020, Jean-Philippe Benard resigned from being a Non-Executive Director in January 2020 and by April, the retirement of two Non-Executive Directors was announced, as well as the appointment of three new directors. The high turnover of its leadership means one (or both) of two things. The first is the possibility that there could be more than meets the eyes within the company and the second is the truth that the newer leadership will need time to adjust to the company’s operations before the wins.

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COVID-19

Just when things started looking up, COVID-19 came with all its challenges and it didn’t help that the first carrier of the virus – an Italian man, had been visiting Lafarge Africa’s factory in Ogun State. The loss in the demand for cement with the stalled construction activities will pose an additional challenge for the organization. In the performance summary released alongside the financials, the company had noted that the pandemic “will adversely affect the company’s results in Q2, 2020.” This is also coupled with the burgeoning competitive landscape with bigger brands like BUA and Dangote owning larger market shares.

While the company seems to be moving in the right direction, it might take a while for things to pick up. At its current price of N11.65 juxtaposed with its indicative dividend yield of 8.58%, the company could serve as an easy buy capable of yielding dividend income while investors wait patiently and hopefully for its wins to come.

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Patricia
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Coronavirus

Covid-19 Update in Nigeria

On the 2nd of June 2020, 241 new confirmed cases and 15 deaths were recorded in Nigeria bringing the total confirmed cases recorded in the country to 10,819.

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COVID-19: FCMB reschedule operations

The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to rise as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 10,819 confirmed cases.

On the 2nd of June 2020, 241 new confirmed cases and 15 deaths were recorded in Nigeria.

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To date, 10819 cases have been confirmed, 3239 cases have been discharged and 314 deaths have been recorded in 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory having carried out 65,885 tests.

Covid-19 Case Updates- 2nd June 2020

  • Total Number of Cases – 10,819
  • Total Number Discharged – 3,239
  • Total Deaths – 314
  • Total Tests Carried out – 65,885

The 241 new cases are reported from 14 states – Lagos (142), Oyo (15), FCT (13), Kano (12), Edo (11), Delta (10), Kaduna (9), Rivers (9), Borno (8), Jigawa (4), Gombe (3), Plateau (3), Osun (1), Bauchi (1).

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

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The latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 5277, followed by Kano (970), Abuja at 687, Katsina (371), Edo (336), Oyo (317), Kaduna (297), Borno (296), Ogun (280), Jigawa (274), Rivers (248), Bauchi (241),  Gombe (164), Sokoto (116).

Kwara State has recorded 111 cases, Plateau (108), Delta (98), Nasarawa (80), Zamfara (76), Yobe (52), Osun (46), Akwa Ibom (45), Adamawa (42), Ebonyi (40), Imo (39), Kebbi and Niger (33), Ondo (28), Bayelsa (21), Ekiti (20), Taraba and Enugu (18), Abia (15), Anambra (11), Benue (9), while Kogi state has recorded only 2 cases.

Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, President Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

 

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READ ALSO: Bill Gates says Trump’s WHO funding suspension is dangerous

Patricia
DateConfirmed caseNew casesTotal deathsNew deathsTotal recoveryActive casesCritical cases
June 2, 20201081924131415323972667
June 1, 20201057841629912312271579
May 31, 20201016230728714300768687
May 30, 2020985555327312285667267
May 29, 202093023872612269763447
May 28, 202089151822595259260647
May 27, 202087333892545250159787
May 26, 2020834427624916238557107
May 25, 202080682292337231155247
May 24, 202078393132265226353607
May 23, 202075262652210217451317
May 22, 2020726124522110200750337
May 21, 2020701633921111190748987
May 20, 202066772842008184046377
May 19, 202064012261921173444757
May 18, 202061752161919164443407
May 17, 202059593881826159441837
May 16, 202056211761765147239737
May 15, 202054452881713132039544
May 14, 202051621931683118038154
May 13, 202049711841646107037374
May 12, 20204787146158695936704
May 11, 202046412421521090235894
May 10, 202043992481421777834794
May 9, 202041512391271174532784
May 8, 202039123861181067931154
May 7, 20203526381108460128184
May 6, 20203145195104553425071
May 5, 2020295014899548123704
May 4, 2020280224594641722912
May 3, 2020255817088240020702
May 2, 20202388220861735119522
May 1, 20202170238691035117512
April 30, 2020193220459731715562
April 29, 2020172819652730713692
April 28, 2020153219545425512322
April 27, 20201337644102559942
April 26, 20201273914152399942
April 25, 20201182873632229252
April 24, 202010951143312088552
April 23, 20209811083231977532
April 22, 2020873912931976482
April 21, 20207821172631975602
April 20, 2020665382311884662
April 19, 2020627862221704362
April 18, 2020541482021663562
April 17, 2020493511841593172
April 16, 2020442351311522772
April 15, 2020407341211282672
April 14, 202037330111992632
April 13, 202034320100912422
April 12, 20203235100852282
April 11, 202031813103702382
April 10, 20203051770582402
April 9, 20202881471512302
April 8, 20202742260442262
April 7, 20202541661442042
April 6, 2020238650351982
April 5, 20202321851331942
April 4, 2020214540251850
April 3, 20202092542251800
April 2, 20201841020201620
April 1, 2020174352091630
March 31, 202013982091280
March 30, 2020131202181210
March 29, 2020111221031070
March 28, 20208919103850
March 27, 2020705103660
March 26, 20206514102620
March 25, 2020517102480
March 24, 2020444102410
March 23, 20204010112370
March 22, 2020308002280
March 21, 20202210001210
March 20, 2020124001110
March 19, 20208000170
March 18, 20208500170
March 17, 20203100030
March 16, 20202000020
March 15, 20202000020
March 14, 20202000020
March 13, 20202000020
March 12, 20202000020
March 11, 20202000020
March 10, 20202000020
March 9, 20202100020
March 8, 20201000010
March 7, 20201000010
March 6, 20201000010
March 5, 20201000010
March 4, 20201000010
March 3, 20201000010
March 2, 20201000010
March 1, 20201000010
February 29, 20201000010
February 28, 20201100010

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Business News

Subsidy and PIB

Today, Oil prices are low, thus no need for the Federation to pay a part of your fuel bill, so no subsidy on imported PMS on retail price. 

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Subsidy and PIB

“There is no fuel subsidy anymore in Nigeria. It is zero subsidies forever. Going forward, there would be no resort to either fuel subsidy or under-recovery of any nature. NNPC will play in the petroleum marketplace, just like another marketer in the space,” – Mele Kyari, GMD NNPC, April 7th, 2020

Stepping back from the subsidy debate, it is important to clarify what the main issues in the debate are.

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Is there a subsidy paid on imported PMS? Yes, Subsidy is pricing. Paying a subsidy on imported PMS means the Nigerian Federation (not just FGN) pays a part of your fuel cost. Removing subsidy means you the buyer pays all the fuel costs. Deregulation means that fuel “cost” is not decided by the FGN but by the seller. Today, May 2019, Oil prices are low, thus no need for the Federation to pay a part of your fuel bill, so no subsidy on imported PMS on retail price.

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However, the NNPC GMD also said, “But we (NNPC) will be there for the country to sustain the security of supply at market price.” Translation? NNPC will keep importing PMS and there is no deregulation, the FGN will still fix “market prices”

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What is subsidizing? The landing cost of petroleum products? Yes, but we are also subsidizing the infrastructural inefficiency of the government, e.g. demurrage arising from having limited offloading ports in Nigeria.

(READ MORE: NNPC reduces fuel price to N108 per litre)

The subsidy is not the problem, there is nothing wrong with subsidies. A government subsidy should be a tax cut to the poor, the vulnerable, and the economically backward. However subsidizing fuel imports is simply subsidizing imported consumption, while creating jobs outside Nigeria. So, subside local refining not imported fuel. This creates another problem. The subsidized locally refined petrol can find its way to Cameroon, Benin Republic even Senegal.

Fuel subsidy, Nigeria's pump price, Subsidy and PIB

The only way to cut down the cost of paying subsidies is to reduce the cost of petroleum products, and the way to do so is to refine locally. To refine locally means that refining companies can buy crude oil forward contracts to feed their refineries. To open the crude buying process is to pass the PIB.

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The PIB as originally drafted would allow a transparent and measurable process of ownership of the Nigerian petroleum assets. With the PIB regime, it is possible for a refinery to buy crude oil in advance, at a price it can negotiate with private crude supplies to feed its refinery stock. So long term, passing the PIB encourages local refineries. More local refineries will eradicate the need to import fuel and pay subsidy on “inefficiencies”.

Patricia

The original PIB drafts also proposed certain new directions as below:

  1. PIB created a commercially viable National Oil Company, restructures the NNPC from a government-run entity into a private one that can raise private capital and not rely on FGN “cash calls”. By these, NNPC would sell 30% of its shares to the Nigerian public within 6 years. The Nigerian Gas Company would sell 49% of its shares to the Nigerian public.

(READ MORE: Crude oil prices drop, geopolitical tension deepens)

  1. Created a new fiscal regime where royalties and taxes due are based on production, not terrain, and investment. Thus, Nigeria earns more when the International Oil Companies (IOCs) produces more.

Petrol Subsidy gulped over N11 trillion in 6 years - Senate Committee, Subsidy and PIB

  1. It introduced Company Income Tax to the industry. IOCs will have to incorporate in Nigeria as a company and pay 30% CIT and 50% Nigerian Hydrocarbon Tax based on rents and royalties. Both must be paid; one tax cannot be set off against the other.
  1. The PIB prohibition on flaring of natural gas beyond a “flare out date”. This is good for the environment and forces the IOCs to invest in Gas projects rather than burning it into the atmosphere.
  1. PIB has a relinquishing provision where oil blocks not utilized are reverted to the FGN for reallotment. This will free up acreages tied up by the IOC.
  1. The Production Sharing Contracts signed by Nigeria with the IOCs in 1993 was based on $20 a barrel. PIB allows Nigeria to review those terms and earn more.

Pass the PIB, this removes the need, in the long term, for the payment of subsidies

It is our problem, we can fix it.

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