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Guinness Nigeria Plc: Strong growth in tough Full Year 2018

Guinness Nigeria has released FY18 results showing a 14% increase in net sales

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Guinness Nigeria, Guinness Nigeria Announces Material Circumstances That Will Impact FY 2020

Guinness Nigeria (GUINNESS) has released FY18 results showing a 14% increase in net sales and EPS growth of 140% y/y, following additional shares post the rights issue concluded in September. Revenue came in directly in line with SBGS and consensus estimates while EPS was behind SBGS and consensus estimates by 8% and 11% respectively. The Board has declared DPS of N1.84, 188% higher than last years with an implied payout ratio and a dividend yield of 60% and 2% respectively.

Volume growth supported by Dubic, spirits and Guinness:

Parent company, Diageo, in its FY18 results reported 10% organic volume growth for Nigeria across beer and spirits. Reported net sales growth for Guinness and Spirits was 24% and 28% respectively.  We continue to reiterate our concerns on the sustainability of beer brands. We recall that FY17 growth was largely driven by then discount brand, Satzenbrau, which in FY18 was in a steep 28% decline.

In the same vein, Dubic, which drove volumes in FY18, largely on discount pricing in our view, could likely fall into decline in FY19 after a recent price increase. It may be too early to get a sense of the success of recently introduced lager brand, Royal Kingdom. Regardless, spirits, which grew 28% compared to 13% for beer, will likely continue to grow at a faster pace over the medium term.

EPS growth supported by margin expansion, lower interest charges:

EBIT margins expanded to 9.4% from 8.1% in FY17 but fell shy of our 10.6% estimates. This was largely due to a 440bps contraction in gross margins, which wiped out gains from a 580bps improvement in operating expense (opex) to sales ratio.

Noting little improvement in gross margin through the year and a spike in opex/sales ratio in 4Q18, we see little upsides to margins in the near term amid ongoing price wars. Sustained growth in premium brand, Guinness, could however, support margins. Earnings were also lifted by the 54% decline interest charges, following the repayment of shareholder loans post rights issue. Debt to equity ratio improved to 16% from 98% in FY17, within management guidance of 20% to 50%.

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Valuation:

We have a SELL recommendation at a target price of N103, which implies a 14% upside from current price. On our numbers, GUINNESS is trading on a FY19E P/E multiple of 20x compared to NB at 17.7x and International Breweries at 54x. Management will be hosting a call on this results later today at 2pm local time.

Key risk:

Largely stem from our view on GUINNESS’s relatively weaker positioning in beer. Nonetheless, increased contribution from spirits amid relatively faster growth in the segment could be a catalyst. An improvement in consumer disposable incomes remains the most significant catalyst for the sector.

 

By Stanbic IBTC Stockers

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Is Zenith Bank thriving on the strength of sound financial indices?

Zenith Bank posts N103.8bn profit in half-year financial result.

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Zenith Bank reaffirms market dominance and leadership with Q3 2019 results, Zenith Bank Plc, Access Bank Plc and United Bank for Africa Plc, Zenith Bank reports 7.9% profit increase for full-year 2019

Sound financial indices have made Zenith Bank one of the largest banks in the Nigerian banking Industry. It was recognized as the Most Valuable Banking Brand in Nigeria 2019, in the Global Banker magazine Top 500 Banking brands; and Best Commercial Bank in Nigeria 2019, by the World Finance.

Zenith Bank has successfully bolstered this narrative even further with the release of its Half Year 2020 Financial Report, where it closed with a profit of N103.8 billion.

Growing profit position in these perilous times, speaks remarkably of the suppleness and elasticity of any establishment. A lull in economic activity caused by inflationary pressures, precariousness of the market, and the coronavirus pandemic has forced most Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) to cave in, and reveal achievements worse off than their 2019 results y/y – but not Zenith Bank Plc. The institution has showcased beyond reasonable doubt, that the apparent limitations are incapable of distorting its active growth pattern.

Zenith Bank closed H1 2020, 16.8% better off than it did in 2019 y/y, in terms of profit after tax. Although this massive leap, hugely resulting from tax paid as profit before tax, noted just a 2.2% growth. Further analysis of its HY’2020 results, demonstrates more efficiency, a focused cost of fund optimization, and an aggressiveness in generating income across its business heads and segments. This strategy had begun since 2018, and was shared by the bank when it disclosed planned implementation of an improved core banking system, hoping it would ultimately enhance efficiency while reducing costs.

Zenith Bank has thrived on the strength of its sound business model, corporate governance, conservative risk management, and strategic corporate social investment. The bank has been very forceful in the market, improving massively across all of its income generating segments, despite the plausible and obvious hindrances. This is a testament to its superiority, and sponsors its claim for supremacy.

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The bank made N22billion from foreign exchange revaluation gains and despite evidence to the contrary, it endeavored in operating expenditure (OPEX). OPEX may have grown by 7.7%, but disclosures and note to the accounts shows that in virtually every expense head, costs dropped. The 7.7% was triggered majorly by Information Technology related costs, fuel and maintenance, and an increase in the compulsory banking cost fund, set up for the Asset Management Company of Nigeria (AMCON) by the CBN.

Now, like every hero susceptible to their hubris, Zenith has its own problems, which questions its position at the top. Yes, the bank may have an amazing and constantly improving interest expense to interest income ratio, but it does not possess the finest result in this regard as of yet. HY 2019 interest expense took as much as 33.6% of its income, while HY 2020 dropped to 27.4%. This is good, but still considerably high, if we carry out a peer-to-peer analysis with Guarantee Trust Bank Plc (masters of low-interest expenses), whose ratio stands at 16% for HY 2020.

However, Zenith has sustained the momentum of positioning itself as the crème de la crème in the Nigerian Banking Industry for quite some time. The bank’s pattern of growth and performance, strongly indicates its capabilities to manage its interest expense in subsequent quarters. It will be interesting to see how this pans out by year end.

In summary, despite economic difficulties this year, with most bank’s bottom-line at a worse position than the corresponding period last year, Zenith posted improved profit yet again. Could this be enough to portray supremacy?

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UBA Plc H1’2020 results, a true reflection of its rightsizing decision? 

UBA’s H1 2020 result is yet another demonstration of the resilience of its business model.

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UBA

The upward review in benefits of some employees and directors this year, coupled with the rising operational costs, constitutes the hot topics from the 2020 semi-annual results released by UBA Plc. 

Widely regarded as the banking sector’s largest employer of labour in Nigeria, the bank in December 2019, embarked on a ‘rightsizing’ exercise, which partly resulted in new hires, as well as promotions, improved remunerations, and benefits for existing employees.

READ: Zenith Bank’s Profit After Tax in H1,2020 rises by 16.8% to N103.8 billion

The Group Head, Media and External Relations, UBA Plc, Nasir Ramon commenting on this said, over 5000 staff of UBA Plc, started the new year with a lot of cheer, as the bank promoted to new grades, coupled with salary upgrades. Beneficiaries of this exercise will receive up to 170% increase in their salaries and benefits, whilst a good number have been moved to higher grade levels.” 

Directors saw their emoluments amplify by 177.7% (Fees and Sitting allowances) as demonstrated in the financial statements of the bank. Rising to N50million in June 2020, from N18million in 2019 y/y. 

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READ: Access Bank posts Profit Before Tax of N74.31 billion in H1 2020

Now, Deposit Money Banks (DMB’s) might be adjudged to be honorable in all of their objectives, but the truth is they are neither self-sacrificing nor are they expected to be. DMB’s are established for profit, and would incessantly prioritize business good sense over social empathy, for the sake of their owners The import of this is, UBA Plc expects its colossal investments in employees and directors to overwhelmingly reflect in its bottom-line. 

Half-year 2020 results is clearly not in sync with this philosophy, as it reflects a weakened position compared to the corresponding period last year, despite the investments in human capitalProfit before tax dropped by 18.7%, from N70.3billion recorded in HY’2019 to N57.1billion in the current period. Profit after tax waned as well by 21.7% to N44.4billion from N56.7billion in HY’2019. 

READ: Are tech talents Africa’s ‘new export’?

Interestingly enough, the top-line fared pretty well. Interest income and fee income showed improvements, albeit marginally by 0.3% and 6.7% respectively. This makes it illogical to attribute the entirety of the decline in profit to the recent austerity measures put in place by the CBN, reducing funds transfer fees and card maintenance charges 

The Coronavirus pandemic played a big role too, by widely stunting the economy in the second quarter of 2020, and negatively impacting profit. But even these do not provide substantial and sufficient convictions as to why the Tier-one bank did not hit the profit-bar it set for itself, from its truly emphatic 2019 financial year. Does this mean that UBA Plc got the decision wrong at the start of the year? 

READ: FUGAZ; Nigerian banks considered too big to fail

Six months seem too short a period to immediately class management’s decision to jack up the benefits and emoluments of its internal customers as a failed one. Although, no one anticipated the travails of COVID-19 and its resulting consequences, investments in human capital is widely proven to yield tremendous growth in the long haul. Besides the fact that it has given UBA Plc a solid reputation in the market place, it also makes the company very attractive to the very best of industry talents. Furthermore, employee engagements of this nature, foster brand loyalty which ultimately trickles down to how passionately these personnel undertake their tasks and deliverables. The true bearing of this investment is expected to reflect in due course, in subsequent quarters.  

Commenting on the result, UBA’s Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Mr Kennedy Uzoka said, “Our H1 2020 results is yet another demonstration of the resilience of our business model in an extremely uncertain and tough operating environment. We recorded commendable growth in our underlying business in terms of customer acquisition, transaction volumes, and balance sheet whilst inflation, depressed yield environment and exchange rate volatility impacted our net earnings as anticipated.” 

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READ: GTBank, Access Bank, 11 others pay workers N271.64 billion in H1 2020

Rising cost

In today’s increasingly aggressive marketplace, where consistently generating revenue, is paramount to preserving the longevity and going-concern status of any establishments, costs must also be accorded as much attention and significance. Tightening and managing costs with the aim to improve and generate profit is genius strategy especially in today’s banking industry. The banking industry is under threat from ruthless competitions. Multifarious streams that had hitherto been available for generating income for DMB’s are being severely hindered by the ‘austere’ policies (from the perspective of commercial banks) from the apex bank, making effective cost management a survival mechanism. 

Explore the Nairametrics Research Website for Economic and Financial Data

Employee benefits rose by 20% from N37.2billion in HY’2019 to N44.6billion in HY’2020, while Directors’ emoluments (Fees and Sitting Allowance) as earlier stated, surged by 177% from N18million in 2019 to N50million in 2020 y/y. The total operating expenses increased 22.6% in 2020UBA Plc, unavoidably expended N22.4billion on Banking Sector Resolution cost trust fund, in compliance with the CBN’s requirement to contribute to the cause of the Asset Management Company of Nigeria (AMCON). Security and other payments for core services experienced increase as well compared to the preceding year. 

Avoidable expenses like Penalties and Premises Maintenance Charge, should be extensively reviewed and extinguished wherever possible, to improve bottom line. UBA plc has forked out N565million in penalties so far in 2020representing 6177.7% increase from just N9million in 2019 y/y. This is a prime example of the operational brick walls, UBA Plc must properly address to improve its fortunes in subsequent quarters. 

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Finding Balance: GTB’s impeccable gains versus its notable losses

Bank’s strategy of increasing gains while seeking out ways to decrease its losses is on a true course to growth.

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Finding Balance: GTB’s impeccable gains versus its notable losses, GTB donates medical facility for COVID-19, GTBank, others have begun fulfilling pledges towards fight against Covid-19 (coronavirus), COVID-19: GTBank suspends loan repayment for small businesses, GTBank Releases Q1 2020 Unaudited Results…….. Reports Profit Before Tax of ₦58.2Billion

Guarantee Trust Bank Plc (GTBank), over the past few years, has taken the Nigerian banking industry by storm, particularly through the foresight and strategic actions of its management.

The bank has, over time, tactically built its operations and expanded its market share, earning its spot as one of the credible names in the Nigerian banking space.

Faced with challenges like increase in the loan-to-deposits ratio (LDR) instituted by the CBN, and the COVID-19 pandemic that got companies in the financial sector thinking of new ways to survive, GTB may have found its way out.

READ: Nigeria’s inflation rate hits 13.22% in August 2020, highest in 29 months

Overview of its half-year results

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Net interest income increased by 9.7% to N127.6 billion in H1 2020, compared with N116.4 billion in H1 2019. Its Profit before income tax stood at N109.7 billion in H1 2020, compared with the N115.8billion in the corresponding period in 2019 – a decrease of 5.2%.

Somewhere in-between the good and the not-so-good, the bank has been able to round off its earnings to a balanced output for H1 2020.

READ: Even with a 939% jump in H1 Profit, Neimeth still needs to build consistency

The good: Foreign Exchange gains

One of the best happenings to investors this year, is the extreme volatility of the forex market – among other currency and commodity plays. In H1 2020 period, the company’s financial assets at fair value through profit or loss, was up by 91.6% to N140.8 billion, when compared with N73.5 billion in H2 2019.

Interestingly, this was due to 129.2% increase in treasury bills from N56.9 billion in H1 2019 to N130.5 billion in H1 2020. Through forward foreign exchange contracts and currency swaps, they were able to increase derivative assets by 49% from N188.6 billion (notional contract amount) in H1 2019 to N280.9 billion in H1 2020.

Explore the Nairametrics Research Website for Economic and Financial Data

Foreign exchange revaluation gain in the half-year period was significantly boosted, from N2.6 billion in H1 2019, it attained 723% growth to N21.9 billion H1 2020, and it was a major reason for the 28% increase in other income within the period under review. Deposits from customers were also higher by 18.5% to N3 trillion. While loans and advances to customers increased in line with the apex’s bank directive. This could be both a bad thing and a good thing, depending on the level of credit risk.

(READ MORE:GTBank, Dangote Cement, CAP record gains, Investors post N7 Billion gain)

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The not-so-good: Impairment losses, CBN’s penalties

Following CBN’s issuance mandating commercial banks to increase the percentage of customer deposits that were loaned to 65%, so as to effectively stimulate the economy, stringent penalties had been imposed on non-compliant banks by the apex bank.

Consequently, the company’s restricted deposits had increased to N1.054 trillion, owing to its limitations in full compliance. While its increased cash balance of 27.8% in the period under review, could signify that the worst of the challenge is over (particularly following the comparative reduction in cash in Q1 2020), a cursory look at the reason for the strengthened cash position, is the 75.7% increase in money market placements to N333.5 billion – another positive for the bank.

READ: Jaiz Bank reports 45.3% profit increase in H1 2020, involved in 21 litigations

Loan impairment charges in the half-year period, increased by 209.7% from N2.1 billion to N6.8 billion, and this was as a result of increased provisions for expected credit losses on financial assets extended to its customers, no doubt as a result of the economic uncertainties, synonymous with the period under review.

Commenting on the half-year results, the CEO, Segun Agbaje, noted that; “Going forward, our focus is not just to survive this pandemic, but to thrive beyond it. That is why we are going ahead with our plans to re-imagine how we create value for all our stakeholders.

“We know that making financial services work for customers goes beyond banking, and in line with our long-term strategy, we will seek to create and drive innovative financial solutions that go beyond banking.”

READ: Access Bank posts Profit Before Tax of N74.31 billion in H1 2020

The bank’s Return on Equity (ROE) of 26.8% is currently one of the best in the industry, and a testament to this promise. Its strategy of increasing gains by focusing on its strengths, while also seeking out ways to decrease its losses, is one that will set any organization on a true course for growth. GTBank is certainly on that path.

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