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Business News

Before and after: 10 metrics that has defined Buharinomics

Buharinomics: The Buhari years are almost over, well, that’s if he does not win a re-election come 2018, which we won’t bet against.

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No foreign exchange for food and fertilizer importers - Buhari, Gas project, Buharinomics, Buhari, metric, FG okays N100 billion for the completion of Kano Free Trade Zone , Nigeria saved N670 billion from Petrol Importation in half year 2019  , The Chicago Boys of Nigeria, Buhari signs Production Sharing Contract (PSC) Amendment Bill into law , Nigeria generates N876.09 billion in 9-month, as revenue shortfall poses threat 

Metric: The Buhari years are almost over, well, that’s if he does not win a re-election come 2018, which we won’t bet against.

Buharinomics, Buhari, metric

FIRS using BVN to go after tax defaulting ‘wealthy’ Nigerians(Opens in a new browser tab)

Since taking the reins of office in three years ago, the President has presided over one of the most difficult periods in Nigeria’s economic history. Though he claims this can be traced to the economy he inherited, naysayers believe he made things worse than they should have been in the first place.

So, how well has Buhari fared economically?

His opponents will point to galloping inflation, a wicked recession, devaluation of the naira, budget padding etc. have all plagued his presidency and will score him low.

NERC Approves New Electricity Tariffs for Discos(Opens in a new browser tab)

However, there has also been some upsides and his supporters will point to some of them as the dividend of his presidency.

We let the data do the talking and list some of the most important metric out there that can be used to judge his presidency.


Metric: Real GDP Growth Rate

What he met – 3.96%

Current status – 1.95%

Commentary – From inheriting a GDP of 3.96%, Nigeria fell into a recession in 2016, the first in over 25 years. Growth is back but most analysts believe that it is weak. For Nigeria to get back to levels at pace with population growth rate, we should be growing at not less than 8% per quarter. The current GDP Growth rate doesn’t just cut it for us.


Metric: Real Inflation rate

What he met – 9.0%

Current status – 12.48%

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Commentary – Inflation rate rose as high as 18% during his presidency. However, we have recorded over 15 months of disinflation. Nevertheless, things are not as good as they were when he came into power

.South Africa, U.K and U.S Investors shipped $11.4 billion into Nigeria in H1 2019(Opens in a new browser tab)

Metric: Unemployment Rate

What he met: 7.5%

Current status: 18.2% (Q3 2017)

Commentary This perhaps is one of the worst metrics for the Buhari Presidency. Youth unemployment is over 40%. It has never been this bad.


Metric: Foreign Reserves

What he met: $29.61 billion

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Current status: $47.75 billion

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Commentary: Pass mark for the president considering how low Nigeria’s external reserves had fallen. His opponents might point to some Eurobonds that Nigeria has obtained as a component for the loans, but it’s hard to take this away from the government. They did well here.


Metric: Exchange Rate

What he met: N222.9/$1

Current Status: N363/$1

Commentary: If there is one thing this administration will be remembered for, it is the way it handled the exchange rate fiasco. The government held on to the N197/$1 official exchange rate for over a year before succumbing to a devaluation in 2017. However, before that, the exchange rate depreciated to as low as N520, before strengthening in 2017 to N360. It has remained at that level for over a year now. The CBN’s decision to introduce the I&E window greatly helped to stabilize the exchange rate.

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Metric: Capital Importation

What he met: $2.67 billion

Current Status: $6.70 billion

Commentary: The President’s decision to hold on to the naira at N197/$1 for almost 2 years drove foreign investors away from Nigeria. However, the moment the I&E window was introduced, foreign investors came back to Nigeria in droves. You might allude to the fact that most of the investments are foreign portfolio investments, but they still are capital importation. Also, the fact that investors back suggest that they have some confidence in the economy.


Metric: Corruption Perception Index (CPI)

What he met: 136

Current Status: 148

Commentary: This president campaigned on the back of anti-corruption. Even though we have been inundated with media trials and boisterous claims of corruption fights aided by whistleblowing, the international community actually believes that things have gotten worse.


Metric: Power Generation

What he met: 1,327 MW

Current Status: 4,890 MW

Commentary: Nigeria’s power problems still persist despite claims of improved power generation. There are still over 4 million unmetered consumers and the power sector is so indebted that we believe it might implode any time soon. Government policies for the power sector hasn’t delivered what it promised.


Metric: National Debt

What he met: N12.118 trillion

Current Status: N21.725 trillion (Dec 2017)

Commentary: Nigeria’s public debt has almost doubled in the last 3 years. Whilst there is good reason for increasing Nigeria’s debt position, there is worry that most of the proceeds of the debts are channeled towards recurrent expenditure. Nigeria’s debt to GDP is still tolerable even though debt service to GDP remains a major concern.


Metric: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

What he met: 49.5 index points

Current Status: 56.9 index points

Commentary: This index measures how confident businesses are about increasing their inventory.
For most of the 3 years of this presidency, Nigeria’s PMI dropped to levels not seen in years. However, we have noticed a significant improvement of late. Another signal that businesses are confident again about the economy.


Metric: Stock Market All-Share Index

What he met: 34,310.37

Current Status:  39,028.51

Commentary: The stock market has had a volatile ride during the Buhari Presidency and this is perhaps one of the most turbulent we have ever seen. From the early days of the “Bull-hari” to the exchange rate triggered days of “Bear-hari” it has been one hell of a ride.

However, the introduction of the I&E window by the CBN seemed to be a major turning point. The stock market closed as one of the best in the world last year after being the worst in the prior year. Hard to call this one, but we will score him a pass mark as the market was already tanking when he came in.


You may have noticed 11 metrics instead of 10 mentioned in the title of this article. Being a website focused on making money, we thought to include the stock market as a metric.

What else will you like to see included as a metric? Let us know and we will include it here.

@Nairametrics

Nairametrics

Nairametrics is Nigeria's top business news and financial analysis website. We focus on providing resources that help small businesses and retail investors make better investing decisions. Nairametrics is updated daily by a team of professionals. Post updated as "Nairametrics" are published by our Editorial Board.

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    Economy & Politics

    Top States in Nigeria with highest IGR per population in 2020

    Nairametrics ranks the 36 states of the Federation, including the Federal Capital Territory, based on their IGR per population.

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    Nigeria’s states generated a sum of N1.31 trillion internally in 2020, representing a marginal decline compared to N1.33 trillion recorded in 2019, and an increase compared to N1.17 trillion in 2018.  

    The downturn is attributable to reduced state revenue as a result of disruptions caused by the covid-induced lockdown, while the crash in crude oil prices also hampered economic growth. 

    Internally generated revenue is regarded as income generated by various states in the country, independent of their share of revenue from the Federation account. However, apart from the clear exception of Lagos State, all others depend largely on statutory allocations to run their state affairs. 

    Nairametrics ranks the 36 states of the Federation, including the Federal Capital Territory, based on their IGR per population, taking into account the estimated population size of each state as at 2016 and 5% growth rate between 2016 and 2020.  

    Geo-political zones 

    In terms of IGR per population for the six geo-political zones in Nigeria, South West takes the lead with an average of N13,966, having generated a sum of N561.01 billion and an estimated population of 40.17 million people. The South-South region followed with an average of N8,694 and a total aggregate IGR of N263.17 billion.  

    On the flip side, the North-Eastern region, which houses states like Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, etc. recorded the lowest IGR per population of N2,061 closely followed by North West with an average of N2,855. 

    Here are the top 5 states with the highest IGR per population in 2020. 

    Lagos State – N31,794 

    Lagos State, regarded as the economic hub of the nation, with a total estimated population of 13.18 million people as of 2020generated a sum of N418.99 billion as IGR in 2020. This represents an increase of 5.1% compared to N398.73 billion recorded in 2019. 

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    • In terms of IGR per capita, Lagos State generated an average of N31,794 from each member of the population in 2020, as against N30,257 generated in the previous year. 
    • It is no surprise that Lagos State tops the rank, being a major epicentre for economic activities in the country. Lagos State is the largest city in Africa in terms of GDP, and the State is widely known for its large industries, with most corporations in the country headquartered within the state. 
    • It also houses major seaports in the country as well as the State Government’s aggressive taxation policies. These, amongst others, ensure the state makes more revenue internally compared to other states of the Federation. 
    • According to data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics, Lagos State received a total of N115.93 billion as Federal allocation in the year 2020, representing 21.67% of the total revenue available to the state in the year. 
    • This shows the exceptional ability of the state to run its affairs, using its internally generated revenue with little or no support from the Federal purse. 

    Abuja – N24,600 

    The Federal Capital Territory generated a sum of N92.06 billion in 2020, the third-highest state IGR in the year. However, based on IGR per population Abuja seats in second position with an average of N24,600. 

    • This represents a 23.5% increase when compared to N19,925 recorded in 2019. 
    • Abuja is the capital territory of Nigeria, with a total estimated population of 3.74 million people across a 7,315km square area. 
    • The state houses a lot of Federal ministries, having been made the country’s capital in 1991. Abuja is also a major conference centre in the country, as it hosts various meetings and summits annually. 
    • A cursory look at the data showed that the state’s IGR only accounted for 57.85% of the total available revenue, indicating that 42.15% of its revenue was gotten from the Federation account. 

    Rivers State – N15,281 

    Rivers State, being a major oil-producing state in the country, generated a sum of N117.19 billion as internally generated revenue in 2020. 

    • However, with an estimated population of 7.7 million people, its IGR per population stood at N15,281 in 2020, representing a decline of 16.5% when compared to N18,307 recorded in 2019. 
    • Rivers State is in the Niger Delta region of the country with much of the businesses in the state being oil exploration companies. 
    • Evident from the data obtained from the NBS, Rivers State relies heavily on statutory allocations from the Federal Government as well as their share of the 13% oil derivatives as it received a total of N141.19 billion from FAAC, representing 54.64% of the total available revenue in the review period. 

    Delta State – N10,045 

    Delta state, another state in the Niger Delta region of the country, with an estimated population of 5.9 million, generated a sum of N59.73 billion as IGR, and an average of N10,045 as IGR per population. 

    • Delta State is a major oil-producing state and ranks second to Rivers State. The State supplies about 35% of Nigeria’s crude oil and some considerable amount of natural gas. 
    • Delta State in the period received a sum of N186.83 billion as statutory allocation. 
    • Its IGR only accounted for 24.2% of the available revenue in the period, while N46.11 billion was generated as PAYE. 

    Ogun State – N9,263 

    Ogun State, a neighbouring State of Lagos State, generated a sum of N50.75 billion. In terms of IGR per population, the State generated a sum of N9,263. 

    • The State’s average income per population decreased by 28.4% compared to N12,945 recorded in 2019. 
    •  The State is strategically located, bordered to the East by Ondo State, to the North by Oyo and Osun States, to the South by Lagos State and the Atlantic Ocean, and to the West by the Republic of Benin. 
    • Ogun State also joins the list of states that are much dependent on FAAC allocations as statutory payments stood at N37.7 billion, representing 42.61% of the total revenue. 

    Bottom five 

    Katsina – N1,386 

    Jigawa – N1,416 

    Jaiz bank

    Benue – N1,736 

    Niger – N1,804 

    Bauchi – N1,821 

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    Business News

    SpaceX says it’s pursuing necessary licenses to bring Starlink to Nigeria

    Broadband penetration of 70% which covers 90% of the population is the FG’s target in its National Broadband Plan (NNBP), 2020-2025.

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    Telecoms sector remains resilient as broadband subscriptions climb

    American private space exploration company founded by Elon Musk, SpaceX says it is working to pursue all necessary licenses needed to bring the Starlink Satellite internet services to Nigeria.

    This was disclosed by Mr Ryan Goodnight, SpaceX’s Starlink Market Access Director for Africa in a meeting with NCC’s Executive Vice-Chairman (EVC), Prof. Umar Danbatta on Friday in Abuja.

    What SpaceX is saying about Starlink in Nigeria

    “SpaceX has been in discussion with NCC virtually over the past several months to begin the process of pursuing all necessary licences to bring Starlink, its satellite-based broadband services, to Nigeria.

    Having made substantial progress in the discussion, the commission granted SpaceX’s request for a face-to-face discussion to gain better insights on the prospects,” they said.

    The NCC stated that it has listened to SpaceX’s presentation and will review it vis-à-vis its regulatory direction of ensuring an effective and sustainable telecoms ecosystem where a licensee’s operational model does not dampen healthy competition among other licensees.

    “As the regulator of a highly dynamic sector in Nigeria, the commission is conscious of the need to ensure that our regulatory actions are anchored on national interest,” they said.

    NCC added that broadband penetration of 70% which covers 90% of the population is the FG’s target in its National Broadband Plan (NNBP), 2020-2025. This is also in line with its National Digital Economy Policy and Strategy (NDEPS), 2010-2030.

    What you should know

    Starlink is an internet service launched by SpaceX to improve internet coverage in rural and underserved areas globally. Starlink satellites are over 60 times closer to Earth than traditional satellites, resulting in lower latency and the ability to support services typically not possible with traditional satellite internet.

    Nairametrics also reported this month that the  Federal Government announced a deal with Microsoft through the Federal Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy for the development of high-speed internet infrastructure across the six regions in the country.

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