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Before and after: 10 metrics that has defined Buharinomics

Buharinomics: The Buhari years are almost over, well, that’s if he does not win a re-election come 2018, which we won’t bet against.

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Gas project, Buharinomics, Buhari, metric, FG okays N100 billion for the completion of Kano Free Trade Zone , Nigeria saved N670 billion from Petrol Importation in half year 2019  , The Chicago Boys of Nigeria, Buhari signs Production Sharing Contract (PSC) Amendment Bill into law , Nigeria generates N876.09 billion in 9-month, as revenue shortfall poses threat 

Metric: The Buhari years are almost over, well, that’s if he does not win a re-election come 2018, which we won’t bet against.

Buharinomics, Buhari, metric

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Since taking the reins of office in three years ago, the President has presided over one of the most difficult periods in Nigeria’s economic history. Though he claims this can be traced to the economy he inherited, naysayers believe he made things worse than they should have been in the first place.

So, how well has Buhari fared economically?

His opponents will point to galloping inflation, a wicked recession, devaluation of the naira, budget padding etc. have all plagued his presidency and will score him low.

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However, there has also been some upsides and his supporters will point to some of them as the dividend of his presidency.

We let the data do the talking and list some of the most important metric out there that can be used to judge his presidency.


Metric: Real GDP Growth Rate

What he met – 3.96%

Current status – 1.95%

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Commentary – From inheriting a GDP of 3.96%, Nigeria fell into a recession in 2016, the first in over 25 years. Growth is back but most analysts believe that it is weak. For Nigeria to get back to levels at pace with population growth rate, we should be growing at not less than 8% per quarter. The current GDP Growth rate doesn’t just cut it for us.


Metric: Real Inflation rate

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What he met – 9.0%

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Current status – 12.48%

Commentary – Inflation rate rose as high as 18% during his presidency. However, we have recorded over 15 months of disinflation. Nevertheless, things are not as good as they were when he came into power

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Metric: Unemployment Rate

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What he met: 7.5%

Current status: 18.2% (Q3 2017)

Commentary This perhaps is one of the worst metrics for the Buhari Presidency. Youth unemployment is over 40%. It has never been this bad.


Metric: Foreign Reserves

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What he met: $29.61 billion

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Current status: $47.75 billion

Commentary: Pass mark for the president considering how low Nigeria’s external reserves had fallen. His opponents might point to some Eurobonds that Nigeria has obtained as a component for the loans, but it’s hard to take this away from the government. They did well here.


Metric: Exchange Rate

What he met: N222.9/$1

Current Status: N363/$1

Commentary: If there is one thing this administration will be remembered for, it is the way it handled the exchange rate fiasco. The government held on to the N197/$1 official exchange rate for over a year before succumbing to a devaluation in 2017. However, before that, the exchange rate depreciated to as low as N520, before strengthening in 2017 to N360. It has remained at that level for over a year now. The CBN’s decision to introduce the I&E window greatly helped to stabilize the exchange rate.

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Metric: Capital Importation

What he met: $2.67 billion

Current Status: $6.70 billion

Commentary: The President’s decision to hold on to the naira at N197/$1 for almost 2 years drove foreign investors away from Nigeria. However, the moment the I&E window was introduced, foreign investors came back to Nigeria in droves. You might allude to the fact that most of the investments are foreign portfolio investments, but they still are capital importation. Also, the fact that investors back suggest that they have some confidence in the economy.


Metric: Corruption Perception Index (CPI)

What he met: 136

Current Status: 148

Commentary: This president campaigned on the back of anti-corruption. Even though we have been inundated with media trials and boisterous claims of corruption fights aided by whistleblowing, the international community actually believes that things have gotten worse.


Metric: Power Generation

What he met: 1,327 MW

Current Status: 4,890 MW

Commentary: Nigeria’s power problems still persist despite claims of improved power generation. There are still over 4 million unmetered consumers and the power sector is so indebted that we believe it might implode any time soon. Government policies for the power sector hasn’t delivered what it promised.


Metric: National Debt

What he met: N12.118 trillion

Current Status: N21.725 trillion (Dec 2017)

Commentary: Nigeria’s public debt has almost doubled in the last 3 years. Whilst there is good reason for increasing Nigeria’s debt position, there is worry that most of the proceeds of the debts are channeled towards recurrent expenditure. Nigeria’s debt to GDP is still tolerable even though debt service to GDP remains a major concern.


Metric: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

What he met: 49.5 index points

Current Status: 56.9 index points

Commentary: This index measures how confident businesses are about increasing their inventory.
For most of the 3 years of this presidency, Nigeria’s PMI dropped to levels not seen in years. However, we have noticed a significant improvement of late. Another signal that businesses are confident again about the economy.


Metric: Stock Market All-Share Index

What he met: 34,310.37

Current Status:  39,028.51

Commentary: The stock market has had a volatile ride during the Buhari Presidency and this is perhaps one of the most turbulent we have ever seen. From the early days of the “Bull-hari” to the exchange rate triggered days of “Bear-hari” it has been one hell of a ride.

However, the introduction of the I&E window by the CBN seemed to be a major turning point. The stock market closed as one of the best in the world last year after being the worst in the prior year. Hard to call this one, but we will score him a pass mark as the market was already tanking when he came in.


You may have noticed 11 metrics instead of 10 mentioned in the title of this article. Being a website focused on making money, we thought to include the stock market as a metric.

What else will you like to see included as a metric? Let us know and we will include it here.

@Nairametrics

Nairametrics

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Nairametrics is Nigeria's top business news and financial analysis website. We focus on providing resources that help small businesses and retail investors make better investing decisions. Nairametrics is updated daily by a team of professionals. Post updated as "Nairametrics" are published by our Editorial Board.

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Esther Adegunle

    May 30, 2018 at 7:48 am

    Thanks for this, quite robust and objective.
    I will include tax generated and other non-oil revenue, budget implemetation rate, investment in capital projects and security rate across the country.
    Cheers

  2. Bright chinedu Ezike

    May 30, 2018 at 3:43 pm

    Good info but did not take Care of real Issue in Nigeria present realities like. Hate speech Indices which have been on steady rise since postwar Nigeria Cause of perceived hatred of one ethnic group against major interest of the nation, and Lack of clear economic policies.

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Business

Just in: Fuel scarcity looms as NUPENG directs Tanker drivers to withdraw services in Lagos

This was disclosed in a press statement by NUPENG on Friday, August 7, 2020.

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The scarcity of petroleum products appears to be looming in Lagos as the leadership of Nigerian Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) has directed its members to withdraw its services in Lagos with effect from Monday, August 10, 2020.

This is due to the failure of government authorities to address the various issues that have been causing serious pains and harrowing experience on the petroleum tanker drivers in the state for several months now.

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This was disclosed in a press statement by NUPENG on Friday, August 7, 2020.

 

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Details shortly…

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Business

President Buhari signs amended Companies Allied Matters bill

The President’s action on the document repealed and replaced the extant Companies and Allied Matters Act, 1990.

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Budget: FG completes just 31.7% of constituency projects, Nigerians react to President Buhari's signing of Finance Bill 

President Muhammadu Buhari has assented to the Companies and Allied Matters Bill 2020, which was recently passed by the National Assembly.

This was disclosed in a statement signed by a media aide of President Buhari, Femi Adesina and shared by the Personal Assistant to the President, Bashir Ahmad, via his Twitter handle.

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According to the statement, the President’s action on the document repealed and replaced the extant Companies and Allied Matters Act, 1990, and introduced several corporate legal innovations geared toward enhancing ease of doing business in the country.

Key innovations in the new Act:

* Filing fee reductions and other reforms to make it easier and cheaper for small and medium-sized enterprises to register and reform their businesses in Nigeria;

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* Allowing corporate promoters of companies to establish private companies with a single member or shareholder, and creating limited liability partnerships and limited partnerships to give investors and business people alternative forms of carrying out their business in an efficient and flexible way;

* Innovating processes and procedures to ease the operations of companies, such as introducing Statements of Compliance; replacing “authorised share capital” with minimum share capital to reduce costs of incorporating companies; and providing for electronic filing, electronic share transfers, e-meetings as well as remote general meetings for private companies in response to the disruptions to close contact physical meetings due to the COVID-19 pandemic;

* Requiring the disclosure of persons with significant control of companies in a register of beneficial owners to enhance corporate accountability and transparency; and

* Enhancing the minority shareholder protection and engagement; introducing enhanced business rescue reforms for insolvent companies; and permitting the merger of Incorporated Trustees for associations that share similar aims and objectives.

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Energy

NNPC signs agreement with CNOOC, SAPETRO to end OML 130 disputes

The agreement is expected to help resolve disputes stemming from Oil Mining Lease (OML).

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Crude oil market remains unpredictable- NNPC Boss

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), said it has signed a Head of terms (HoT) agreement with China National Offshore Oil Corporation(CNOOC) and an indigenous oil production firm —South Atlantic Petroleum (SAPETRO).

A statement that was issued by the state-owned oil company via Twitter, yesterday, noted that this is part of the efforts that have been undertaken towards resolving all the disputes stemming from Oil Mining Lease (OML) 130 Production Sharing Contract.

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READ ALSO: NNPC spends N535.9 billion on subsidy, FAAC in Q1 2020

Nairametrics understands that the agreement, which is temporary, could also be instrumental towards resolving similar disputes between the NNPC and other oil companies. The NNPC had previously accused some of these oil firms of under-declaring crude exports for three years between 2011 and 2013.

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READ ALSO: NNPC cultivates 2,675 hectares of cassava for Ethanol production

Specifically, the NNPC alleged that the likes of Shell, Total, Chevron, and Eni under-reported crude oil exports in their oil fields to the tune of 57 million barrels. The NNPC even sought repayments valued at $12.7 billion from the oil companies, according to a suit filed before the Federal High Court in Lagos. The companies denied the accusations.

The new agreement is now expected to help resolve such disputes. Even the NNPC’s Group Managing Director, Mele Kyari. was quoted to have said the agreement is “a major milestone toward the resolution of all disputes.”

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