Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) faces a finely balanced decision at its upcoming meeting on 23rd and 24th February, with analysts divided between a potential policy rate cut and a hold decision amid improving macroeconomic indicators.
While the headline inflation rate has declined for the eleventh consecutive month to 15.1% in January 2026, easing price pressures alone may not be sufficient to trigger an immediate policy shift.
However, strengthening external buffers, exchange rate appreciation, and stable energy prices are increasingly reinforcing arguments for cautious normalization.
The benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), currently at 27.0%, has remained elevated as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) prioritizes price and exchange rate stability.
With disinflation now sustained and FX reserves strengthening, analysts believe the Committee’s tone may shift, even if policy action remains measured.
What experts are saying
Head of Research at Afrinvest West Africa, Asimiyu Damilare
Damilare believes recent macroeconomic developments have strengthened the case for a potential rate cut at the upcoming meeting.
“I will say that recent macroeconomic developments have strengthened the case for a potential policy rate cut at the upcoming MPC meeting,” he said.
He noted that headline inflation has declined for eleven consecutive months, moderating to 15.1% in January 2026.
He also noted that this sustained disinflation trend, alongside continued accretion to external reserves, which have risen 2.4% since November to $47.8 billion, and a 6.7% appreciation in the naira to N1,355/$ at the official market, provides the CBN with policy flexibility.
According to him, stable PMS prices and growing expectations of rate cuts across major advanced economies in the first half of 2026 would further improve the external backdrop for easing.
Importantly, Damilare highlighted that voting patterns from the November 2025 MPC meeting suggest a possible pivot is already forming.
At that meeting, five members voted for a rate cut, narrowly outweighed by six who preferred to retain the MPR at 27.0%. The close split signals a Committee increasingly receptive to policy normalization.
MD/CEO of Arthur Steven Asset Management Limited
The MD/CEO takes a more cautious stance, arguing that it may still be premature for the MPC to implement a significant move.
- “I think on the back of the above as well as the fact that it is a bit early in the year to gather appropriate data, it might be a bit early for us to see a significant move by the MPC,” he stated.
He added that rising system liquidity and its potential inflationary implications could influence the MPC’s decision. “However, increasing system liquidity and its potential impact on inflation could tilt the hands of the MPC to either maintain monetary policies at current levels or lean towards tightening.”
His view suggests that while macro indicators are improving, liquidity dynamics remain a key variable in determining whether easing is appropriate at this stage.
Portfolio Manager at CFG Africa, Olumayowa Bolujoko
Bolujoko acknowledges that the CBN has made meaningful progress toward its stabilization objectives. Exchange rate appreciation has reinforced macro stability, external reserves remain sufficient to provide a credible buffer, and headline inflation has moderated — even if base effects contributed to part of the decline.
Ordinarily, such conditions would strengthen the argument for a gradual shift toward growth support.
However, he cautions that structural considerations are likely to shape the MPC’s decision.
The MPC, he argues, will focus not only on the level of inflation but on whether a sustained and durable disinflationary trend has been firmly established.
Liquidity conditions remain a central concern.
A 10.2% month-on-month surge in currency outside banks signals elevated transactional liquidity within the real economy, potentially sustaining inflationary momentum. Election-cycle spending dynamics could further heighten near-term price pressures.
Additionally, maintaining yield attractiveness to support Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) inflows remains a vital policy pillar. Given the sensitivity of exchange rate stability to capital flows, any premature rate cut could weaken external positioning and reverse recent FX gains.
- “Taken together — elevated system liquidity, potential near-term inflation pressures, and the strategic imperative of sustaining capital inflows — we expect the MPC to maintain the policy rate at its current level, even with the January data available, while continuing to assess the durability of the disinflation trend before signaling any policy pivot,” he said.
Factors shaping the MPC decision
Disinflation trend: Eleven consecutive months of declining headline inflation strengthen arguments for easing, though durability remains under scrutiny.
External buffers: FX reserves at $47.8 billion and sustained naira appreciation improve macro resilience and policy flexibility.
Capital flow considerations: Maintaining attractive yields is critical to supporting FPI inflows and exchange rate stability.
Global backdrop: Expected policy easing across advanced economies in H1 2026 may provide external room for cautious normalization.
Nairametrics’ take
The upcoming MPC meeting presents a classic policy trade-off.
On one hand, sustained disinflation, stronger reserves, exchange rate stability, and improving global conditions support the case for a cautious rate cut.
- While the balance of macroeconomic indicators appears increasingly supportive of policy normalization, the MPC may opt to hold the MPR at 27.0% while signaling a dovish bias.
- A formal pivot could emerge in subsequent meetings, contingent on the durability of the disinflation trend and continued external stability.
- Overall, the probability of a hold remains slightly higher, but the case for a measured policy shift is strengthening.
