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Home Business News Politics

CBN March BES report reflects improved optimism

Fikayo Owoeye by Fikayo Owoeye
April 13, 2018
in Politics
Godwin-Emefiele, CBN

Godwin Emefiele Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria

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The Central Bank has released its monthly Business Expectation Survey BES report for the month of March. The report shows insufficient power supply, high-interest rates, and unfavorable economic climate as major business constraints in the month under review.

The business outlook

At 24.5 index points, shows respondents’ overall confidence index (CI) on the macroeconomy in March 2018 improved when compared with the level of 14.5 index points recorded in February 2018.

The businesses outlook for April 2018 indicated greater confidence on the macroeconomy at 64.1 index points.

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Overall Business Outlook on the Macroeconomy

The positive outlook by type of business in March 2018 was driven by businesses that are both import-and export-oriented (29.1 points), those that are neither import-nor export-oriented (25.9 points), businesses that are export-related (23.5 points), and those that are import-oriented (17.7 points)

Financial condition and Access to credit

Respondents’ outlook on the volume of total order, business activity and financial conditions (working capital) stood at 16.0, 13.3, and 7.6 index points respectively, indicating an improvement in relation to its outlook in February 2018 which was 2.2, 7.1, and 3.8 respectively.

Respondents were however pessimistic on access to credit in the review month with an index of -12.2 points, which is a decline from the 7.2 point recorded in the preceding month.

Employment and expansion plans

The positive outlook in the volume of business activities (69.2 index points) and employment (27.9 index points) indicated a favorable outlook in the next month.

The employment outlook index by sector showed that the services sector (33.4 points) indicates the highest prospects for creating jobs, followed by wholesale/retail trade (22.9 points), industrial (21.5 points) and construction (16.2 points) sectors.

An analysis of businesses with expansion plans by sector in the next month showed that the services and construction sectors indicate greater disposition for expansion with indices of 34.8 and 14.3 points respectively.

Business constraints

The surveyed firms identified insufficient power supply (70.7 points), high interest rate (61.0 points), unfavourable economic climate (53.8 points), unclear economic laws (52.7 points), financial problems (50.5), insufficient demand (48.1 points), and unfavourable political climate (43.7 points) as the major factors constraining business activity in the current month.

Business Constraints charts

The expectation on the exchange rate

Majority of the respondent firms expect the Naira to appreciate in the current and next months as the confidence indices stood at 26.7 and 40.8 points, respectively.

Expectations on inflations and borrowings

Respondent firms expect the inflation rate to fall in both the current and next months, with confidence indices of -13.4 and -15.8 points for the current and next months, respectively.

Business Expectation Index on Selected Economic Indicators

Similarly, respondent firms expect borrowing rates to rise in the current month but fall in the next month, as the confidence indices stood at 2.6 and -4.2 points, respectively.

The respondent firms were made up of small, medium and large organizations covering both import-and export-oriented businesses.


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Tags: Business Expectations Survey reportCentral Bank of Nigeria CBN
Fikayo Owoeye

Fikayo Owoeye

Fikayo has a degree in computer science with economics from Obafemi Awolowo University. ITIL v3 in IT service management. An alumnus of Daystar Leadership Academy. Prior to joining Nairametrics had stinct in Project management, Telecommunications among others. Also training in Consulting and Investment banking from Edubridge Academy. He has very keen interest in Politics, Agri-business, private equity and global economics. He loves travelling and watching football. You can contact him via fikayo.owoeye@nairametrics.com

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