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What To Expect in Nigeria in 2017

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Nairametrics| In a recent publication, titled Nigeria in 2017, SBM an Africa focused market intelligence and communication firm, made some predictions for 2017. While some of the predictions may seem shocking, the current pattern of events seem to back them up. SBM also has a track record of accurate predictions. The most recent being, predicting Donald Trump winning the US presidential elections.

Nairametrics got a copy of the report, and the predictions are as follows.
1. The government will be forced to increase the pump price of petrol in 2017.
2. The FX situation will continue to worsen and the parallel markets will cross N500 to the dollar and close 2017 at a point close to N600 naira to a dollar.
3. The 2017 budget will have a poor execution of capital expenditure as occurred in the 2016 budget.
4. Nigeria will struggle to produce above 2 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2017. The Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) will not be passed thus hampering investments in the oil sector. Crude oil price gains will be minimal, and the end 2017 about the same levels in 2016.
5. Power tariffs will be increased in 2017, but by a marginal rate to avoid political backlash. The federal government will end up subsidizing the Generating Companies (Gencos). Nigeria will be unable to meet the 10,000 MW mark.
6. The All Share Index will continue to decline in 2017, but a slower rate of about 5%.
7. There will be an increase in foreign investment (Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment) in 2017, but not up to 2015 volumes.
8. Food costs will continue to rise in 2017 and Nigeria may resurrect the 1980s regime of essential commodities. There will be increased scarcity of drugs.
9. The pastoral conflict in the middle belt will intensify. The clash between the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) and the government will evolve to a full scale insurgency in 2017. Kidnapping and armed robbery will also increase.

Onome Ohwovoriole has a degree in Economics and Statistics from the University of Benin and prior to joining Nairametrics in December 2016 as Lead Analyst had stints in Publishing, Automobile Services, Entertainment and Leadership Training.He covers companies in the Nigerian corporate space, especially those listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).He also has a keen interest in new frontiers like Cryptocurrencies and Fintech. In his spare time, he loves to read books on finance, fiction as well as keep up with happenings in the world of international diplomacy.You can contact him via [email protected]

5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Tochi Nwaa

    December 31, 2016 at 4:54 pm

    How pessimistic :(. Can we have e a more optimistic version. Thanks and ‘Happy’ new year.

  2. Anodebenze

    January 1, 2017 at 11:26 pm

    I can only add and say” how dare you nairametric”.the worst have happened.the main issue in Nigeria economy presently the way apc handled the economy is thatTHEY MSSED AT LEAST 3 OPPORTUNITIES TO RE-FLOAT THE ECONOMY,THEY WERE TIMIDLY IN MANAGING THE ECONOMY.
    A MAN SHOULD ONLY THINK THROUGH HIS SOUL AND EXISTENCE,YOU should not LISTEN TO ANYBODY or you can get deceived or you’re deceiving yourself,to love or hate somebody can be political,YOU SHOULD LISTENS TO YOUR SOUL,YOUR EXISTENCE AND YOUR RIGHT AS A PERSON.This recession was mere correction,the economy will come out stronger,this recession exposes the defects in Nigerian economy,the govt will handle the economy better as,they are more wiser than before,in ex-president johnathan administration,his govt and it’s economic policies created more economic imblanced,and wealth were displaced shamelessly,that is why this recession is legitmate.
    I was hoping that the in-coming govt would have taken measures to arrest the suitiation,my concern is that many Nigerians are going to suffer un-necessarily due to ignorance

  3. Donald

    January 2, 2017 at 1:05 pm

    LMAO!! The first comment hit the nail on the head… How pessimistic…
    Surely some good will come out of Nigeria this year.. Let’s be a bit optimistic shall we

  4. Ayo

    January 2, 2017 at 1:50 pm

    Tochi and anodebenze both ur comments actuallly indicates the problem with this country nigeria
    People in this so called country decide not to recognise facts and figures,so that they can then tailor their thoughts and feelings appropriately.
    The universe is already settled in terms of its exitence, such that things like the law of Kerman, actions and reactions, cause and effects are already written and engraved into the way the universe operates.
    Where nigeria is now is a result of past thoughts,feelings,and actions,so where we will be in future will be a result of the ways we now start to think, feel and act.
    We have attracted this so called unfortunate incidence by our past and current thoughts and actions, this is true of the law of attraction that operates in the universe. ASK BELIEF AND RECEIVE. We asked for our current situation either consciously or unconsciously by our actions and thoughts, and we have now received same.
    What will get us out of this is a new way of thinking, a new pattern of behaviour, and starting to act with a common goal rather than our current fight and struggle for who gets wat.
    I do not want to come across as a prophet of doom, but 2017 is not going to be a great one for nigeria because we will still continue to reap from what we have sowed.
    This is not going to be MAGIC, its the law of the universe which most of the people in nigeria do not operate in.
    My prayer is for nigerians to now begin to serve god in truth and spirit and thereby obey the basic law of the lord which is to first love ur god ur god and then love ur neighbour as ur self.
    Its not just only by praying, its also by doing the right things, and seek knowledge about how things work in the universe.

  5. Ayo

    January 3, 2017 at 9:36 am

    2016,2017,2018 or whatever year is not the only measurement for time and events,its just one of many ways that we measure time and events.
    Its just that we nigerians give too much weight to yearly things,hence our level of fixations on years.
    The question is not 2017 but a question of where we are in our development cycle, and in our so called vision for our nation.
    Try ask a typical nigeria wat the vision for the nation is and they will most likely break it down into years like 2017 the year of great beginning,2015 the year of exploits,2014 year of gladness,2012 year of greater heights.
    We are very good at making colourful declarations without any plan, no long term visions, no concept, no direction, no structure, and no order.

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Around the World

US Capitol complex temporarily shut down

The US Capitol complex was shut down temporarily on Monday as a precautionary measure after a small fire broke out nearby.

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The US Capitol complex was shut down temporarily for about an hour on Monday as a precautionary measure after a small fire broke out nearby, highlighting the security concerns that are being raised days before the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden.

The security concerns and the lockdown follows the January 6 attack on the US Capital by supporters of the outgoing US President, Donald Trump, after his encouragement and inciting comments, calling the Presidential election a fraud without any proof of evidence.

READ: President Trump says he won’t attend Joe Biden’s inauguration

Some of them even called for the death of the US Vice President, Mike Pence for presiding over the certification of Joe Biden’s November election victory.

While making the disclosure in a statement, the Capitol Police said that the lockdown has been lifted and the nearby fire contained.

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The Acting Chief of the Capitol Police had said that the complex which comprises of the Capitol, its grounds and several buildings were shut down as a precautionary measure.

READ: US Supreme court dismisses Texas bid to overturn presidential election results

The US Secret Service in a tweet post on its official Twitter handle said, “Out of an abundance of caution the U.S. Capitol complex was temporarily shutdown. There is no threat to the public.’’

The city’s fire department in its tweet post said that firefighters put out a fire outside near the Capitol complex.

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The fire department said, “There were no injuries. This accounts for smoke that many have seen.”

READ: Huawei accuses the United States of hacking

What you should know

  • President-elect, Joe Biden is expected to be sworn in at the US Capitol on Wednesday amid an unprecedented cordon of security, with strict physical distancing measures in place due to threats of violent attacks in Washington and the rising cases of coronavirus infections.
  • Donald Trump, who is just fresh from a historic second impeachment from the congress had said he would not attend, although his deputy, Vice President Mike Pence, had given an indication that he would attend.

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Corporate Press Releases

Kinyungu Ventures Research calls for changes to cut-and-paste VC strategy in Africa

The Paper recommends investment structures and approaches tailored to African operating conditions.

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East African venture advisory firm, Kinyungu Ventures has published a white paper Chasing Outliers: Why Context Matters for Early Stage Investing in Africa that has found that there continues to be a wide misalignment between traditional venture capital models and the African market. The team behind the report is now calling for a broadening of approaches to institutional investment on the continent. Speaking with 100 Pan-African founders, investors, and LPs across 15 African countries, the research suggests investors should prioritize investing structures and practices that reflect the realities of operating in Africa. This includes adopting more flexible investing structures with longer time horizons.

According to the paper, there are multiple mismatches between key characteristics of Silicon Valley VC and African markets, which influence how startups and funds maneuver as well as what results they expect and produce. Findings show that African markets are large, but also fragmented, and its consumers have limited purchasing power. Furthermore, consumers on the continent are difficult to acquire and retain, yet the sheer size of the African market also presents a real opportunity for profit once the environment is clearly understood. The paper’s key recommendations for funds include:

  • Adopting more focused investment strategies, such as investing in b2b companies or cross-subsidizing a portfolio with less risky, steady return assets.
  • Considering non-unicorn investing models geared at more resilient companies, with returns distributed more widely across the portfolio
  • Using flexible structures such as debt or PCVs to accommodate market-level changes, where feasible
  • Allowing a longer time horizon for returns, understanding that growth could be slow and difficult to achieve for many companies

Kinyungu Ventures catalyzes resilient businesses for local intergenerational prosperity. The East African-centric investor focuses on entrepreneurship in East Africa, startups, seed funding, debt financing, impact investing and angel investing.

Speaking on the launch of the white paper, Tony Chen, Managing Director of Kinyungu Ventures and co-publisher of the report says, “Capital in Africa is scarce and pursuing a “growth at all costs” strategy where capital pools are shallow presents huge risks for companies. We’ve also found that many great businesses don’t fit the typical VC profile, but have tremendous unfulfilled potential”.

Tayo Akinyemi, lead researcher and writer of the report added: “In our conversations with numerous investors and founders, it is clear that nuances in variables such as consumer behavior, cultural norms, and business practices impact startups significantly and being on the ground is crucial for success. While African markets aren’t always able to provide the outsized returns that Silicon Valley typically looks for in high-growth companies, a more focused strategy here could unlock real gems, as has been proven by some of the startup successes the continent has seen over the years.”

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Companies

Neimeth Pharmaceuticals to raise N5 billion in additional equity

The Board of Neimeth is set to raise N5 billion additional equity upon the approval by shareholders of the company at the AGM.

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Neimeth Pharmaceuticals
The Board of Directors of Neimeth Pharmaceuticals has revealed plans to raise N5 billion in additional equity upon approval by shareholders of the company.
The information was contained in a press release published on the NSE and signed by the Company Secretary, Mrs. Florence Onhenekwe.

The disclosure is part of the resolutions reached at the Board of Directors meeting of 15th January 2021. At the end of the meeting, it was resolved that the company would raise additional equity to the tune of N5 billion.

In line with this development, a board resolution proposing to raise equity will be presented at the Annual General Meeting of the Company scheduled to hold on 9th March 2021.

What you should know

  • The Board of the Company is yet to disclose if the additional equity would be a rights issue or a private placement, as the details of the additional N5 billion equity set to be raised are yet to be finalized.
  • The fund will help the company’s management to execute key strategies that will reposition the company as a leader in the healthcare industry, with the hope to deliver better returns on investment to shareholders.
  • The additional equity financing will also increase Neimeth’s outstanding shares, which will dilute earnings and impact the Company’s stock value for existing shareholders.
  • The move has the potential to trigger a sell-off of the company shares on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

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