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What To Expect in Nigeria in 2017

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Nairametrics| In a recent publication, titled Nigeria in 2017, SBM an Africa focused market intelligence and communication firm, made some predictions for 2017. While some of the predictions may seem shocking, the current pattern of events seem to back them up. SBM also has a track record of accurate predictions. The most recent being, predicting Donald Trump winning the US presidential elections.

Nairametrics got a copy of the report, and the predictions are as follows.
1. The government will be forced to increase the pump price of petrol in 2017.
2. The FX situation will continue to worsen and the parallel markets will cross N500 to the dollar and close 2017 at a point close to N600 naira to a dollar.
3. The 2017 budget will have a poor execution of capital expenditure as occurred in the 2016 budget.
4. Nigeria will struggle to produce above 2 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2017. The Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) will not be passed thus hampering investments in the oil sector. Crude oil price gains will be minimal, and the end 2017 about the same levels in 2016.
5. Power tariffs will be increased in 2017, but by a marginal rate to avoid political backlash. The federal government will end up subsidizing the Generating Companies (Gencos). Nigeria will be unable to meet the 10,000 MW mark.
6. The All Share Index will continue to decline in 2017, but a slower rate of about 5%.
7. There will be an increase in foreign investment (Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment) in 2017, but not up to 2015 volumes.
8. Food costs will continue to rise in 2017 and Nigeria may resurrect the 1980s regime of essential commodities. There will be increased scarcity of drugs.
9. The pastoral conflict in the middle belt will intensify. The clash between the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) and the government will evolve to a full scale insurgency in 2017. Kidnapping and armed robbery will also increase.

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Onome Ohwovoriole has a degree in Economics and Statistics from the University of Benin and prior to joining Nairametrics in December 2016 as Lead Analyst had stints in Publishing, Automobile Services, Entertainment and Leadership Training. He covers companies in the Nigerian corporate space, especially those listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). He also has a keen interest in new frontiers like Cryptocurrencies and Fintech. In his spare time, he loves to read books on finance, fiction as well as keep up with happenings in the world of international diplomacy. You can contact him via [email protected]

5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Tochi Nwaa

    December 31, 2016 at 4:54 pm

    How pessimistic :(. Can we have e a more optimistic version. Thanks and ‘Happy’ new year.

  2. Anodebenze

    January 1, 2017 at 11:26 pm

    I can only add and say” how dare you nairametric”.the worst have happened.the main issue in Nigeria economy presently the way apc handled the economy is thatTHEY MSSED AT LEAST 3 OPPORTUNITIES TO RE-FLOAT THE ECONOMY,THEY WERE TIMIDLY IN MANAGING THE ECONOMY.
    A MAN SHOULD ONLY THINK THROUGH HIS SOUL AND EXISTENCE,YOU should not LISTEN TO ANYBODY or you can get deceived or you’re deceiving yourself,to love or hate somebody can be political,YOU SHOULD LISTENS TO YOUR SOUL,YOUR EXISTENCE AND YOUR RIGHT AS A PERSON.This recession was mere correction,the economy will come out stronger,this recession exposes the defects in Nigerian economy,the govt will handle the economy better as,they are more wiser than before,in ex-president johnathan administration,his govt and it’s economic policies created more economic imblanced,and wealth were displaced shamelessly,that is why this recession is legitmate.
    I was hoping that the in-coming govt would have taken measures to arrest the suitiation,my concern is that many Nigerians are going to suffer un-necessarily due to ignorance

  3. Donald

    January 2, 2017 at 1:05 pm

    LMAO!! The first comment hit the nail on the head… How pessimistic…
    Surely some good will come out of Nigeria this year.. Let’s be a bit optimistic shall we

  4. Ayo

    January 2, 2017 at 1:50 pm

    Tochi and anodebenze both ur comments actuallly indicates the problem with this country nigeria
    People in this so called country decide not to recognise facts and figures,so that they can then tailor their thoughts and feelings appropriately.
    The universe is already settled in terms of its exitence, such that things like the law of Kerman, actions and reactions, cause and effects are already written and engraved into the way the universe operates.
    Where nigeria is now is a result of past thoughts,feelings,and actions,so where we will be in future will be a result of the ways we now start to think, feel and act.
    We have attracted this so called unfortunate incidence by our past and current thoughts and actions, this is true of the law of attraction that operates in the universe. ASK BELIEF AND RECEIVE. We asked for our current situation either consciously or unconsciously by our actions and thoughts, and we have now received same.
    What will get us out of this is a new way of thinking, a new pattern of behaviour, and starting to act with a common goal rather than our current fight and struggle for who gets wat.
    I do not want to come across as a prophet of doom, but 2017 is not going to be a great one for nigeria because we will still continue to reap from what we have sowed.
    This is not going to be MAGIC, its the law of the universe which most of the people in nigeria do not operate in.
    My prayer is for nigerians to now begin to serve god in truth and spirit and thereby obey the basic law of the lord which is to first love ur god ur god and then love ur neighbour as ur self.
    Its not just only by praying, its also by doing the right things, and seek knowledge about how things work in the universe.

  5. Ayo

    January 3, 2017 at 9:36 am

    2016,2017,2018 or whatever year is not the only measurement for time and events,its just one of many ways that we measure time and events.
    Its just that we nigerians give too much weight to yearly things,hence our level of fixations on years.
    The question is not 2017 but a question of where we are in our development cycle, and in our so called vision for our nation.
    Try ask a typical nigeria wat the vision for the nation is and they will most likely break it down into years like 2017 the year of great beginning,2015 the year of exploits,2014 year of gladness,2012 year of greater heights.
    We are very good at making colourful declarations without any plan, no long term visions, no concept, no direction, no structure, and no order.

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Business

Update: FG extends second phase of eased lockdown by another 4 weeks

This is the third time the second phase of the eased lockdown is being extended.

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President Buhari may sign 2020 Budget tomorrow, President Buhari approves N37 billion for National Assembly renovation, President Buhari appoints Sarki Auwalu to head DPR , FG may stop interstate and inter-town travels, COVID-19: President salutes Elumelu, Dangote, Atiku, Banks, others for support, Naira export earnings, Covid-19: FG to set up N500 billion intervention fund, sovereign wealth, FG issues guidelines on implementation of gradual easing of lockdown nationwide

President Muhammadu Buhari has approved the extension of the second phase of eased lockdown by another 4 weeks.

According to a monitored media report, this is the third time the second phase of the eased lockdown which is currently observed across the country is being extended

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The disclosure was made by Boss Mustapha, the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19, during the Task Force briefing in Abuja on Thursday.

The Federal Government had on July 27 extended the current lockdown by an additional one week due to the Sallah celebration on July 29.

Mustapha disclosed that the extension followed the briefing and recommendation to President Muhammadu Buhari on Wednesday on the progress made so far by Presidential Task Force in containing the spread of Covid-19 and keeping citizens safe from contracting the virus.

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The PTF Chairman noted that they made a couple of recommendations to the president and the extension of the current phase of ease of lockdown was one of the ones approved.

He revealed that in the recommendation that was made to the president about retaining the current phase of the lockdown, the PTF made some minor changes to address the economic, socio-political concerns of Nigerians.

Under the current extended second phase, the current curfew of 10 pm to 4 am is still in force, civil servants on grade level 12 and above are now to resume work fully and close by 4 pm and no longer 2 pm that currently operates. He, however, said that virtual meetings by government officials and parastatals will be maintained.

He also said that while the restrictions on recreational parks have been lifted for non-contact physical activities, the ban on entertainment centres will be sustained.

Mustapha explained that despite the accomplishments and challenges, some challenges continue to pose a considerable concern. Some of them include increased non-compliance with non-pharmaceutical prevention measures, lack of enforcement of necessary guidelines issued to preserve lives, insufficient engagement by some states with the national response, and lingering concern about the gap between identified cases and the actual burden of disease.

He also talked about apathy, fatigue and disbelief combining to challenge public enlightenment, compliance and behaviour change.

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The SGF said that to address these challenges, the PTF decided that it was important to ensure that restrictions were not completely relaxed in order to control transmission.

He noted that it was also important that at this Community Transmission Phase of the pandemic, sub-national governments should step up to take more responsibilities by owning the response.

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The various state authorities and the Federal Capital Territory were mandated to enforce non=pharmaceutical guidelines, the use of face masks in public appearances and places.

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Corporate deals

Just In: Access Bank acquires Zambian Cavmont Bank Ltd

The statement from Access Bank says that the deal is a highly complementary transaction.

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Access Bank Zambia, a subsidiary of Nigeria’s Access Bank Plc, has reached a ‘definitive agreement’ with Cavmont Capital Holdings Zambia Plc (CCHZ) to acquire Cavmont Bank Ltd.

The tier-1 bank announced this latest development regarding the merger talk which has been ongoing for a while, in a statement that was signed by its Company Secretary (Sunday Ekwochi) and issued to the Nigerian Stock Exchange earlier today.

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According to the statement by Access Bank, the deal is a highly complementary transaction that is expected to combine Access Bank Zambia’s wholesale and trade finance capabilities with Cavmont Bank’s retail and commercial banking operations.

The proposed transaction which, in the meantime is still subject to relevant shareholder and regulatory approvals, is also expected to better position Access Bank Zambia as one of the top 10 banks in the Southern African country.

Customers from the enlarged bank will benefit from greater security offered by what will be one of the most capitalized banks in Zambia with a more diversified product and service offering and a broader geographical footprint and infrastructure.

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Access Bank on its notification stated, ‘’Subsequent to our announcement on July 8, 2020, the Board of Access Bank Plc announces today that its subsidiary, Access Bank (Zambia) Limited, has entered into a definitive agreement with Cavmont Capital Holdings Zambia Plc (CCHZ) regarding proposed acquisition of Cavmont Bank Limited, a subsidiary of CCHZ and subsequent merger of Cavmont Bank’s operations into Access Bank Zambia. The proposed transaction, which remains subject to relevant shareholder and regulatory approvals, will position the enlarged Access Bank Zambia as one of the top 10 banks in Zambia and create the momentum to advance its strategic objectives.’’

‘’Under the terms of the agreement, Access Bank Zambia will acquire the entire issued ordinary share capital, assets and liabilities of Cavmont Bank while Capricom Group Limited, the ultimate majority shareholder of CCHZ will invest at least ZMW300 million ($16.5 million) of preference shares into Access Bank Zambia. Capricorn will hold preference shares in the enlarged Access Bank Zambia for a period of five years, after which the preference shares will be acquired by Access Bank Plc.’’

The statement also notes that the enlarged bank will be well placed to participate in the long-term economic growth of Zambia and will be predicated on the country’s vast reserves of natural resources and fast growing young population.

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The transaction is expected to be completed during the fourth quarter of 2020.

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Appointments

Nnaemeka Ewelukwa assumes office as new MD/CEO of NBET

Dr, Eweluka replaced the sacked Dr. Amobi as NBET Chief before full assumption in August 2020.

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Dr Nnaemeka Ewelukwa has assumed office as the new Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) Plc. This was announced earlier today by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

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The Backstory: In December 2019, the former CEO of NBET, Dr Marilyn Amobi, was suspended by Nigeria’s Minister of Power. This followed a series of complaints made against Dr Amobi who was appointed to the position in 2016. Following her sack, the Minister of Power also noted that he was seeking to bring sanity back to the system. A committee was also set up to investigate the many complaints against the former NBET CEO.

“In view of this, the minister has also directed the Constitution of a 5-man investigative committee to look into the myriads of complaints against the MD/CEO (of NBET) with the view of restoring sanity in the management of the company. Consequently, she is to handover to the most senior director in the organisation,” a statement issued by Aaron Artimas, the spokesman of the Minister of Power had read.

Interestingly, President Muhammadu Buhari reinstated Dr Amobi in January this year, but then finally sacked her later in June. Now, Dr, Eweluka, who was earlier announced as Amobi’s replacement, has now taken over.

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Before now, Eweluka was appointed the General Counsel and Company Secretary of NBET in march 2012. He has also served as a Technical Adviser with the Presidential Task Force on Power (PTFP) where he was a member of the Regulatory and Transactions Monitoring Unit.

He graduated with an LLB from the  University of Nigeria Nsukka, an LLM in International Business Law from the London School of Economics and a PhD from Queen Mary, University of London.

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