- Stakeholders have warned the Federal Government against signing the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and European Union (EU), noting that Nigeria risks loosing about $1.3 trillion revenue if it signs the agreement.
- They have also called on the Federal Government to make Nigeria’s stance publicly known on the matter.
- This is as the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), particularly warned of the dangers ahead should Nigeria sign the agreement, saying the country lacks the capacity to compete with its European counterparts.
- Prof. Ademola Oyejide, a professor of Economics at the University of Ibadan in his key note address at the two-day EPA parley in Abuja, noted that the country must make its stand known on the controversial issue.
- The majority of speakers at the event said the country should stand up and speak now if it intends continuing with the agreement or not.
- Nigeria is yet to sign the agreement which was concluded in February, 2014 by ECOWAS.
Oyejide said,
“There must be a clear statement from Nigeria regarding whether the country endorses or does not endorse the EPA. “Although the agreement has indefinite duration, it is not without a legal option for any signatory to withdraw. “Even before that point is reached, the agreement has provision for five-yearly reviews, which can, presumably, be used to undo some of the perceived damages.“Therefore, Nigeria should rise up to the expectations of its leadership position and decide unequivocally, one way or the other.”
- He added that “If Nigeria decides not to sign, there will be plenty of strong evidence in support of that decision. It will, of course.”
- Source: The Sun
The EPA parley was a success with very clear and strong statements by Prof. Ademola Oyejide. However those who claimed that if the EPA is implemented, Nigeria would lose $1.3trn, are clearly hugely overstated. According to the World Bank study on he EPA of December 2014, the cumulative loss of customs duties from 2020 to 2035 would be of $6.2 billion; according to the South Centre it would be of $6.9 billion; according to Adeola Adenikinju and Abiodun Bankole’s study of the University of Ibadan of 23 April 2015 it would be of $7 billion and, according to Soildarité’s paper on “Reevaluation of the losses of customs duties of West Africa if the EPA were implemented” (http://www.solidarite.asso.fr/Papers-2015), which is only one study to take into account the additional losses due to trade diversion in favour of imports from the EU, the losses in value added tax on imports and the additional imports due to the population increase, the cumulative losses would be of $56.5 billion for the 16 West Africa’s States, of which about $22.6 billion for Nigeria as it accounts for about 40% of all West Africa’s imports from the EU. But we are still very far from the alleged $1.3trn! Let us add that total government revenues for 2015 were of $21.8 billion (N3.602trn). In rectifying this slip of the pen, I am not advocting to sigh the EPA, far from that and I concur with Prof. Ademola Oyejide that “One of the strong reasons for Nigeria to stay out of the EPA is that the economy should first fully internalize the adjustment costs associated with the CET implementation before taking on another set generated by significant trade liberalisation that would come with the EPA”.
Jacques Berthelot, Solidarité (jacques.bethelot4@wanadoo.fr)
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